Market evolution: Plastic sacks and bags (CN 392329) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in plastic sacks and bags (excluding those made of polyethylene), classified under CN 392329. The product family covers two sub-segments: PVC-based sacks and bags (39232910) and all other plastic types excluding polyethylene (39232990). Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's position in this market has shifted markedly. While both exports and imports have grown in value, imports have expanded at nearly twice the pace of exports, eroding a modest trade surplus and turning it into a deficit. The following sections unpack the main dynamics behind this structural change.

1. From trade surplus to structural deficit: a decade of shifting balances

1.1 Import growth has far outpaced export growth

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between import and export trajectories. EU imports of CN 392329 products nearly doubled in value, rising from €309.9 million in 2015 to €612.9 million in 2025 (+97.8%). Over the same period, exports grew from €379.8 million to €541.9 million (+42.7%). Importantly, the import surge was driven by both volume and price: quantities rose by 37.6% (from 81,915 t to 112,678 t) while unit prices climbed 43.7% (from €3,783/t to €5,439/t).

1.2 The trade balance swung decisively into deficit

In 2015, the EU held a modest trade surplus of €69.9 million in CN 392329 products. By 2025, this had reversed into a deficit of €71.0 million — a swing of over 200%. The peak surplus was reached around 2018–2019 at approximately €110.8 million, after which import growth accelerated sharply. Correspondingly, the EU's net import reliance shifted from –2.8% (net exporter) to +2.7% (net importer).

1.3 Rising unit values reflect broader cost pressures

Both export and import prices rose substantially over the decade, but import prices increased faster (+43.7% vs. +28.1% for exports). This narrowing of the price differential — from a €1,784/t export premium in 2015 to €1,691/t in 2025 — suggests that non-EU suppliers have been able to command higher prices, likely reflecting increased raw material costs, logistics disruptions (e.g., the post-2021 shipping crisis), and some degree of quality or specification upgrading among Asian suppliers.

2. Asia consolidates as the dominant import source

2.1 China remains the single largest supplier, nearly doubling its shipments

China has consistently been the EU's top import partner for CN 392329 products. Chinese shipments grew from €95.1 million in 2015 to €188.7 million in 2025 (+98.5%), accounting for roughly 31% of total EU imports by value in 2025. China's dominance is even more pronounced in volume terms, given that its average export prices remain below those of European or Turkish suppliers.

2.2 Viet Nam and India are fast-growing secondary suppliers

While China leads in absolute terms, the fastest growth among top suppliers came from Viet Nam (+158.4%, from €9.0M to €23.1M) and India (+73.9%, from €13.9M to €24.2M). These two countries combined now account for over €47 million in EU imports, up from roughly €23 million in 2015. This pattern is consistent with a broader trend of supply-chain diversification away from China, though China's absolute volumes continue to rise.

2.3 The United Kingdom and Türkiye also expanded significantly

Post-Brexit trade flows show the United Kingdom as the EU's second-largest import partner, growing from €60.0M to €111.7M (+86.2%). Türkiye followed with growth from €32.2M to €55.4M (+72.1%). In contrast, Norway saw a steep decline of 64.3%, from €3.8M to just €1.4M.

2.4 Import concentration has tightened slightly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose modestly from 1,655 to 1,731 (+4.6%), indicating a slight increase in supplier concentration. However, the HHI for import volume rose more sharply from 1,850 to 2,744 (+48.3%), suggesting that a growing share of physical imports is being sourced from fewer origins — most likely China and the UK. This volume concentration is a notable vulnerability signal, even if value-based diversification has remained relatively stable.

3. Export destinations diversify, but Russia's collapse reshapes the landscape

3.1 The United Kingdom absorbs a growing share of EU exports

The United Kingdom is by far the EU's largest export destination for CN 392329 products, growing from €101.1M to €171.2M (+69.4%). It now accounts for nearly one-third of all EU exports. The United States also emerged as a key growth market, rising from €29.8M to €58.7M (+96.7%), and Morocco more than doubled from €8.8M to €18.5M (+109.0%).

3.2 Russian exports collapsed following geopolitical disruptions

The sharpest decline among major export partners was the Russian Federation, which fell from €20.8M in 2015 to €6.5M in 2025 (–69.0%). The decline likely reflects the impact of EU sanctions and broader trade disruptions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This single market contraction represents a loss of approximately €14.3 million in annual export revenue.

3.3 Export concentration has risen, partly reflecting Russia's exit

The export-side HHI increased from 999 to 1,321 (+32.2%), moving from a low-concentration regime into moderate territory. This is partly an artefact of Russia dropping out of the top tier, which effectively concentrated remaining exports among fewer partners. The UK alone now absorbs roughly a third of EU exports, making the export portfolio somewhat more dependent on a single market than it was a decade ago.

3.4 EU Member States show divergent export performance

Among EU reporters, Italy remains the largest exporter (€103.6M in 2025, +32.9%), followed by Germany (€72.6M, +15.5%). Spain recorded the strongest growth (+95.1%, from €29.9M to €58.3M), while France's exports actually declined slightly (–5.6%). The Netherlands showed the most dramatic percentage increase (+166.2%), though from a smaller base. On the import side, the Netherlands (+173.7%) and Ireland (+267.3%) saw the most explosive import growth, the latter likely reflecting post-Brexit supply-chain reconfiguration for goods destined for the Irish market.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade position in non-polyethylene plastic sacks and bags (CN 392329) has undergone a fundamental transformation. What was a modest trade surplus in 2015 has become a structural deficit by 2025, driven by import growth (+97.8%) that far outpaced export growth (+42.7%). China remains the dominant import source, but Viet Nam and India are emerging as fast-growing alternatives, consistent with broader supply-chain diversification trends. On the export side, the collapse of Russian markets and the growing reliance on the United Kingdom have reshaped the destination portfolio, increasing concentration risk. EU domestic production has grown robustly (+35.7% in quantity, +46.6% in value), yet it has not been sufficient to keep pace with rising domestic demand, which increasingly is being met by imports. The rising trade intensity (from 28.1% to 44.1%) and export propensity (from 17.5% to 27.3%) underscore that this is an increasingly globally integrated product segment, where competitive dynamics and geopolitical disruptions have a direct and measurable impact on the EU's trade balance.