Market evolution: Polyethylene bags (CN 392321) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of intra-EU trade for sacks and bags made of polymers of ethylene (CN 392321) between 2015 and 2025. The data reveals a market characterized by substantial growth in trade value, driven primarily by rising prices rather than volume increases. The EU's trade balance in this sector has deteriorated, indicating a growing structural dependence on imports. Furthermore, significant shifts in trade partnerships and notable price volatility point to a dynamic and sometimes disrupted market environment.

1. The Price-Driven Expansion of EU Trade in Polyethylene Bags

The period from 2015 to 2025 witnessed considerable growth in the value of EU trade for polyethylene bags, but this expansion was almost entirely fueled by escalating unit prices rather than increased physical flows.

Export value growth outpaced volume stagnation. The total value of EU exports to non-EU countries increased by 27.0%, from €614.9 million to €781.1 million. In contrast, the exported quantity saw a slight decline of 0.7%, falling from 206,914 tonnes to 205,407 tonnes. This dynamic pushed the average export price up by 28.0% to €3,802 per tonne in 2025 (General Overview - Trade).
Imports followed a similar, albeit more volume-positive, trend. The value of EU imports rose by 26.9% to €1.3 billion, supported by a 23.9% increase in imported quantity, which reached 536,704 tonnes by 2025. The average import price grew modestly by 2.4%, suggesting that cost pressures were felt more acutely by EU exporters than by foreign suppliers to the EU (General Overview - Trade).
The trade deficit widened significantly. The EU's trade balance in polyethylene bags deteriorated by 26.7% over the decade, moving from a deficit of €413.3 million to €523.8 million. This increasing deficit, occurring alongside growing trade intensity, underscores the sector's escalating import dependency (Autonomy & Vulnerability - Net Import Reliance).

2. A Fundamental Realignment of Key Trade Partnerships

The EU's trading partners for polyethylene bags underwent a major realignment between 2015 and 2025, with Asian nations strengthening their position as primary suppliers and a diversification of the EU's export destinations.

Asian suppliers consolidated their dominance in EU imports. Vietnam and China remained the two largest suppliers throughout the period, with their respective import values growing by 43.2% and 33.1%. The most dramatic shift was the surge in imports from Türkiye, which increased by 96.2% to nearly €200 million, making it the third-largest supplier. Conversely, imports from the United Kingdom fell by 32.3%, and those from Malaysia collapsed by 78.8% (General Overview - Top Partners by Value).
EU export destinations diversified, with a focus on European neighbours. While the United Kingdom remained the largest export market (value +13.6%), exports to Switzerland more than doubled (+101.7%). Significant growth was also recorded for Serbia (+177.8%) and the United States (+30.6%). In stark contrast, exports to the Russian Federation plummeted by 71.7%, likely reflecting geopolitical sanctions and shifts in trade policy (General Overview - Top Partners by Value).
Within the EU, production and export specialisation became more concentrated. German dominance in both intra-EU production and exports persisted. However, Poland emerged as a major player, exhibiting the highest export growth (+138.8%) and rising to become the third-largest EU exporter. Several Eastern European member states (Lithuania, Bulgaria, Latvia) showed high levels of export specialisation, indicating a regional production hub (Market Structure - Most Specialised Reporters, General Overview - Top Reporters by Value).

3. Market Volatility and Structural Vulnerability

The trade in polyethylene bags was marked by significant price volatility and episodes of sharp shocks, revealing vulnerabilities in the supply chain and highlighting the market's sensitivity to external events.

Price volatility varied significantly by partner. Trade with some partners was relatively stable (e.g., imports from Thailand and Israel had low coefficient of variation), while other relationships were highly volatile. Exports to Australia (CV 0.88) and Chile (CV 0.79) were particularly unstable, as were imports from Malaysia (CV 0.67) and the United Kingdom (CV 0.43) (Volatility & Shocks - Volatility Bars).
Specific price shocks impacted major trade flows. The data identifies several acute shock events. The most significant was a massive price shock in imports from the United Kingdom in 2021 (abnormality score 38.6, price shift +74.7%), which coincided with post-Brexit trade friction and global supply chain disruptions. A major price spike also occurred in exports to Australia in 2023 (Volatility & Shocks - Top Shock Events).
EU import dependence increased despite rising domestic production. Although EU production quantity grew by 11.1% and production value surged by 42.7% (indicating price inflation within the bloc), the EU's net import reliance increased sharply from 2.5% to 6.3%. This 153.5% increase indicates that EU demand grew faster than its own productive capacity, deepening its dependency on foreign suppliers, particularly from Asia (Autonomy & Vulnerability - Net Import Reliance, Market Structure - Production).

Conclusion

The EU market for polyethylene bags between 2015 and 2025 underwent a transformation defined by price inflation over volume growth, a strategic reorientation of trade flows towards Asia and neighbouring European countries, and an increase in underlying supply chain vulnerabilities. The decade culminated in a market with higher trade values, a broader but sometimes volatile set of partners, and a clear structural shift towards greater import dependence. This trajectory suggests that for EU producers and policymakers, managing cost pressures, diversifying supply chains, and addressing trade-related vulnerabilities have become central challenges for the sector's future stability.