Market evolution: Plastic bottles (CN 392330) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in plastic carboys, bottles, flasks, and similar packaging articles (customs code 392330) over the period 2015–2025. The product scope covers two sub-categories: bottles with a capacity of ≤ 2 litres (39233010) and those above 2 litres (39233090). During this decade, the EU underwent a significant transformation in this market: a once-comfortable trade surplus gave way to near-parity, import volumes and values surged far ahead of exports, unit prices rose sharply across both flows, and the geographic structure of trade became notably more concentrated on the import side. The following three sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

1. From Surplus to Deficit: A Decade of Eroding EU Trade Balance

The overarching story of the 2015–2025 period is one in which EU import growth dramatically outpaced export growth, turning a healthy trade surplus into a small deficit by 2025.

EU exports grew in value but barely in volume

Over the full period, EU exports of CN 392330 rose from €757 million to €1,010 million in value (+33.3%), yet the physical volume shipped increased only modestly, from approximately 207,000 tonnes to 223,000 tonnes (+7.5%). By item count, exports grew from 7.04 billion to 7.99 billion units (+13.5%). This gap between value and volume growth signals that a substantial portion of the export increase was driven by rising unit prices rather than by greater physical throughput.

EU imports surged in both value and volume

Imports told a far more dynamic story. In value terms, they jumped from €614 million to €1,033 million (+68.3%)—roughly double the export growth rate. In volume, imports climbed from 122,000 tonnes to 161,000 tonnes (+32.4%), and in item count from 3.94 billion to 5.30 billion pieces (+34.5%). The EU thus absorbed significantly more plastic packaging from the rest of the world, both by weight and by sheer number of items.

The trade balance flipped from surplus to deficit

In 2015, the EU enjoyed a trade surplus of approximately €143 million. By 2025, this had reversed into a deficit of roughly €23 million—a swing of over €166 million. The net import reliance indicator confirms this trajectory: it moved from −2.6% (solidly net-exporting) to −0.4% (barely so). Meanwhile, trade intensity—the share of production that crosses EU borders—rose from 12.5% to 15.9%, indicating that the EU plastic bottle sector became more internationally intertwined over the decade.

Domestic production expanded strongly despite the import surge

The EU's own production of plastic bottles grew substantially: output in number of items rose from 76.5 billion to 124.9 billion (+63.4%), and production value surged from €6.1 billion to €11.6 billion (+90.0%). This robust domestic growth means that the import surge did not substitute for local production—rather, total market demand expanded enough to absorb both rising domestic output and rising imports simultaneously.

2. China's Rapid Ascent and the Concentration of EU Import Origins

The geographic reconfiguration of EU plastic-bottle trade is one of the most striking features of the decade: import supply became substantially more concentrated, driven overwhelmingly by the growth of China as a source.

China became the EU's dominant import supplier

Among the EU's top seven import partners for CN 392330, China stands out dramatically. Chinese shipments to the EU more than doubled, rising from €155 million in 2015 to €391 million in 2025 (+152%). China's share of EU imports thus became dominant—by 2025, it accounted for nearly 38% of total import value, far outstripping the United Kingdom (€179 million), the United States (€128 million), and Switzerland (€105 million). The next-largest sources, Türkiye (+168%) and Serbia (+238%), also grew rapidly but from far smaller bases.

Import concentration rose markedly

This Chinese-driven growth is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value, which climbed from 1,577 to 2,045 (+29.7%) over the period. An HHI crossing the 2,000 threshold is generally considered a sign of moderate concentration. In practical terms, this means that the EU's import base for plastic bottles has become significantly less diversified—a shift that could carry supply-chain resilience implications should trade disruptions occur with key partners.

Export destinations diversified, in contrast

On the export side, the picture was the reverse. The HHI for export value fell from 1,346 to 1,084 (−19.5%), indicating that EU exporters spread their sales more evenly across partner countries. The United Kingdom remained the largest single destination (€240 million, +10.9%), followed by Switzerland (€148 million) and the United States (€141 million, +59.9%). Notable growth was recorded in exports to Norway (+82.9%), Morocco (+196.7%), and Ukraine (+151.7%), while shipments to the Russian Federation declined by 18.6%—likely reflecting geopolitical sanctions effects.

Within the EU, Italy emerged as the leading importer

Among EU Member States, Italy's imports surged 129% (from €84 million to €193 million), overtaking Germany (€144 million) as the EU's largest national importer of CN 392330. Ireland (+124%) and Belgium (+98%) also posted rapid import growth. On the export side, Germany remained the leading EU exporter (€214 million, +36%), followed by France (€104 million, +1.5%) and Austria (€105 million, +25.4%).

3. Rising Unit Values, Shifting Segments, and Price Shocks

A third defining feature of the 2015–2025 period is the pervasive increase in unit values across both trade flows, alongside divergent volume dynamics between the small-bottle and large-bottle sub-segments.

Unit prices rose substantially for both imports and exports

Over the decade, the average export price per tonne increased from €3,657 to €4,535 (+24.0%), while the import price per tonne rose from €5,033 to €6,399 (+27.1%). On a per-item basis, the export unit value climbed from €0.108 to €0.126 (+17.5%) and the import unit value from €0.156 to €0.195 (+25.0%). Importantly, import prices consistently exceeded export prices throughout the period, suggesting that the EU tends to source higher-value or higher-cost plastic bottles from non-EU suppliers than it ships out.

The small-bottle segment (≤ 2 L) drove import volume growth

The product segment breakdown reveals that the small-bottle sub-segment (39233010, ≤ 2 L) was the main engine of import growth. Import mass in this category rose from 95,040 tonnes to 135,854 tonnes (+42.9%), and import value soared from €498 million to €872 million (+75.3%). The per-tonne import price for small bottles increased from €5,236 to €6,422 (+22.6%). On the export side, small bottles also grew, but more moderately: volume rose from 158,302 to 183,696 tonnes (+16.1%), and value from €600 million to €824 million (+37.3%).

The large-bottle segment (> 2 L) contracted in volume but appreciated in price

The large-bottle sub-segment (39233090, > 2 L) followed a strikingly different pattern. Import volumes barely changed, edging down from 26,916 to 25,448 tonnes (−5.5%), while import value still rose from €116 million to €160 million (+37.2%) thanks to a steep price increase from €4,319 to €6,271 per tonne (+45.2%). Export dynamics in this segment were even more dramatic: the number of large bottles shipped collapsed from 536 million to 238 million items (−55.6%), while the mass fell only 20.1% (from 48,717 to 38,902 tonnes). This divergence implies that the average weight of exported large bottles nearly doubled over the decade—from about 91 g to 163 g per item—pointing to a structural shift toward heavier, likely industrial-scale containers in export shipments.

Price shocks clustered around 2022–2023

The volatility analysis detected significant price shock events concentrated in the 2022–2023 window. The most pronounced was in EU exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina, where an abnormal price spike of +43.4% was recorded in 2022 (abnormality score: 10.1). Exports to Norway saw a +36.0% price shift in the same year, affecting flows worth 8.4% of export value. In 2023, exports to Angola registered a +95.2% price anomaly. These shocks are consistent with the broader energy-cost crisis that rippled through the European plastics sector following the 2022 supply disruptions, which raised feedstock and manufacturing costs and were transmitted unevenly across partner markets.

Conclusion

The EU plastic bottle market (CN 392330) underwent a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. What began the decade as a sector with a comfortable €143 million trade surplus ended it in approximate trade balance, as imports—powered by a 152% surge in Chinese supply—grew at twice the rate of exports in value terms. The concentration of import origins increased markedly (HHI rising above 2,000), while export destinations became more diversified. Unit prices rose across the board, reflecting both input-cost inflation (notably the 2022 energy shock) and a possible mix shift toward higher-value products. Domestic EU production nonetheless expanded vigorously, with output growing over 60% by item count, suggesting that demand growth—not import substitution—was the primary dynamic at play. The large-bottle export segment, however, contracted sharply in volume even as the average weight per item climbed steeply, indicating a reorientation toward heavier industrial containers. Going forward, the growing reliance on a concentrated set of import suppliers, combined with persistent price pressures, will warrant attention from policymakers and industry stakeholders concerned with supply-chain resilience in this essential packaging category.