Market evolution: Plastic bottles (CN 39233010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in plastic carboys, bottles, flasks and similar articles with a capacity of ≤ 2 litres (CN 39233010) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis covers trade flows between the EU and non-EU countries, focusing on value, volume, partner concentration, and structural market shifts. Over this decade, the EU plastic bottle market has undergone a notable transformation: while both exports and imports have grown, imports have expanded at roughly twice the pace of exports, turning a comfortable trade surplus into a modest deficit. Several factors — including the post-Brexit reclassification of the United Kingdom as a non-EU partner, the rapid rise of Chinese supply, and growing demand for packaging across the EU — have shaped this trajectory. The Scope & Definitions section provides full product details.

1. From Surplus to Deficit: The Widening Import–Export Gap

EU imports grew nearly twice as fast as exports over the decade

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports of plastic bottles (≤ 2 l) rose from €498 million to €872 million, an increase of 75.3%. Over the same period, export values grew from €600 million to €824 million, a gain of 37.3%. In volume terms, import quantities increased by 42.9% (from 95,040 tonnes to 135,854 tonnes), while export quantities rose by 16.0% (from 158,302 tonnes to 183,696 tonnes). This asymmetry is the defining trend of the period.

The trade balance reversed from a €102 million surplus to a €49 million deficit

The EU's net import reliance shifted from −2.3% in 2015 to −0.2% in 2025 (a 90.1% change toward zero). Negative values indicate the EU is a net exporter, so the near-zero reading in 2025 means the bloc's export advantage has almost entirely evaporated. The EU's self-sufficiency in this product category is declining.

Import prices have risen faster than export prices, signalling a cost squeeze

The average unit price of imports increased by 22.7% (from €5,236/t to €6,422/t), while export prices rose by 18.4% (from €3,788/t to €4,484/t). Import prices remain substantially higher than export prices, which may reflect a higher share of finished, branded, or specialty products being imported, whereas EU exports tend to be more commodity-oriented. Using the supplementary unit (per item), the supplementary price gap is even wider: imports averaged €0.169/item versus €0.106/item for exports in 2025.

2. Geographic Rebalancing: China's Surge, the UK Effect, and Emerging Suppliers

China's share of EU imports more than doubled, reaching €367 million by 2025

The most dramatic shift in the import landscape has been the rise of China as the dominant supplier. Chinese imports surged from €140 million in 2015 to €367 million in 2025, a 161.7% increase — far outpacing any other origin. China alone now accounts for a very large share of extra-EU plastic bottle imports, and this concentration is reflected in the import Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), which rose from 1,790 to 2,348 (+31.1%), moving into territory that suggests moderate-to-high supplier concentration.

The United Kingdom is the single largest trade partner on both sides, but its role reflects structural change

Following Brexit, the UK transitioned from intra-EU to extra-EU trade at the start of 2021. This reclassification is a major structural break in the data. By 2025, the UK was the top EU export destination (€187 million) and the largest European-origin import source (€149 million). However, the UK's import volatility coefficient is the highest among the top seven import partners (CV = 0.48), suggesting that this bilateral flow remains somewhat unstable — likely reflecting ongoing adjustment to post-Brexit customs procedures and rules of origin.

Western Balkan and Turkish suppliers are gaining ground rapidly

Beyond China, smaller suppliers have shown extraordinary growth rates. Imports from Serbia grew by 246.8%, from Türkiye by 162.3%, and from Bosnia and Herzegovina by 148.1%. These countries benefit from geographical proximity, EU association/stabilisation agreements, and lower labour costs. On the export side, the EU's fastest-growing non-EU destinations include Israel (+283.3%), Ukraine (+122.8%), and Norway (+98.3%). Notably, the export HHI fell from 1,358 to 1,036 (−23.7%), indicating that EU exports are becoming more geographically diversified — a positive development for resilience.

France and Italy have emerged as the most dynamic EU member-state importers

Within the EU, import growth was led by Italy (+147.0%, from €72M to €177M), Ireland (+125.3%, from €36M to €82M), and France (+80.1%, from €68M to €122M). Germany remains the largest single importer in absolute terms (€125M in 2025) but with more moderate growth (+13.8%). On the export side, Germany leads (€165M), followed by Austria (€103M) and France (€89M), with Belgium recording the fastest export growth (+88.0%).

3. Production Growth Masks Growing External Dependence

EU production of plastic bottles expanded by 64% in volume terms

Domestic EU production of plastic bottles ≤ 2 l grew from approximately 73.2 billion items in 2015 to an estimated 120.0 billion items in 2025, a 64.0% increase. The production value rose even faster, from €5.01 billion to €9.00 billion (+79.6%), suggesting a shift toward higher-value products or general inflation in production costs. The peak production year appears to be around 2022–2023 (up to ~130 billion items).

Trade openness has risen, indicating deeper integration with non-EU markets

The trade intensity of the EU plastic bottle sector increased from 12.8% in 2015 to 16.8% in 2025 (+31.4%). This means that a growing share of total EU production is being traded across the external border — either because domestic demand is increasingly met by imports, or because the EU is exporting a larger portion of its output (export propensity rose from 7.9% to 9.3%). The salience analysis ranks trade intensity as the more significant vulnerability indicator (score: 64.6 vs. 58.4 for export propensity).

Specialisation is concentrated in a handful of smaller EU member states

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows that Luxembourg (RSCA = 0.92), Lithuania (0.79), and Austria (0.41) are the most specialised EU exporters of plastic bottles, while Finland (−0.92), Cyprus (−0.90), and Ireland (−0.82) are the least specialised and are likely heavily dependent on imports. Large economies such as Germany and France, despite being major exporters in absolute terms, show only moderate specialisation — plastic bottles represent a small fraction of their broader export baskets.

Price volatility remains moderate, with isolated shocks in smaller markets

The coefficient of variation of bilateral trade values is highest for EU exports to Ukraine (CV = 0.52), Israel (0.42), and Morocco (0.47), reflecting geopolitical disruption and smaller trade volumes that amplify percentage swings. On the import side, UK-origin imports are the most volatile (CV = 0.48), likely reflecting post-Brexit adjustment. A small number of price shocks were detected — notably in EU exports to Cameroon (+44.2% price shift in 2022), Angola (+108.5% in 2023), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (+44.0% in 2022) — but these affected marginal trade flows (value shares of 0.6–1.4%) and do not pose systemic risk.

Conclusion

The EU market for plastic bottles ≤ 2 l has grown substantially over 2015–2025, with production up 64% and trade intensity rising by nearly a third. However, the defining feature of the decade is the erosion of the EU's net export position. Import growth (+75.3% in value) has far outpaced export growth (+37.3%), turning a €102 million trade surplus into a €49 million deficit. This shift is driven primarily by the explosive growth of Chinese supply (+161.7%) and the post-Brexit reclassification of UK–EU flows as extra-EU trade. At the same time, the EU's export base has become more geographically diversified, which is a positive development for trade resilience. Going forward, the concentration of imports toward China (reflected in a rising import HHI of 2,348) and the sector's growing trade intensity (16.8%) warrant attention from a supply-chain vulnerability perspective, particularly if geopolitical tensions or trade policy changes disrupt key supply routes.