Market evolution: Other plastic sacks (CN 39232990) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's trade in plastic sacks and bags (excluding those made of polyethylene and PVC) classified under customs code 39232990 over the period 2015 to 2025. The analysis focuses on identifying the primary trends in EU trade flows, the shifting balance between imports and exports, the geographical concentration of trade partners, and the sector's evolving vulnerability to external pressures. The data reveals a decade of significant transformation, marked by robust import growth that has fundamentally altered the EU's trade position in this market.

1. The Surging Import Tide and the Erosion of the EU's Trade Surplus

The most striking feature of the period is the pronounced divergence between import and export growth. While both flows expanded in value, imports grew at a dramatically faster pace, reversing the EU's initial trade surplus into a deficit by the end of the period.

Imports Grew Twice as Fast as Exports in Value Terms

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports in this product category nearly doubled, increasing by 98.1% from €289 million to €573 million. In contrast, export value grew by 45.0% from €336 million to €487 million. This differential growth rate is the primary driver of the observed market shift. The import quantity also expanded significantly, by 39.0%, indicating a substantial increase in the volume of goods entering the EU market (General Overview).

The Trade Balance Reversed from Surplus to Deficit

The faster growth of imports relative to exports systematically eroded the EU's trade balance. The EU moved from a trade surplus of €46.4 million in 2015 to a trade deficit of -€86.2 million in 2025, a swing of over €132 million. This indicates that domestic consumption became increasingly reliant on supplies from outside the bloc over the decade.

China and the United Kingdom Dominated the Import Surge

The geographical origin of this import surge was highly concentrated. China remained the largest single supplier, with its share of EU imports growing from €85.2 million to €178.8 million (a 109.8% increase). The United Kingdom, no longer an EU member state after 2020, also saw its exports to the EU climb from €56.3 million to €108.7 million (a 93.0% increase). Together, these two partners accounted for over half of the total import value by 2025. Other significant growth was recorded from Türkiye and Viet Nam (Top partners by value).

2. Consolidation of Trade and Shifting Production Centers

The data points towards a market where trade flows became more concentrated on specific routes, while production patterns within the EU itself evolved, highlighting growing regional specialization.

Import and Export Concentration Increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, rose for both import and export flows. The HHI for import values increased from 1,620 to 1,721, and for export values from 1,095 to 1,392. This indicates that trade became less dispersed and more focused on a smaller number of key partner countries over the decade. For imports, the concentration in volume terms grew even more sharply (+50.2%), suggesting that large, steady supply relationships were solidified (Concentration HHI).

Production Within the EU Grew Steadily

Despite the surge in imports, EU domestic production of this product category also increased. Production quantity grew by 35.7% (from 390 million kg to 529 million kg), and its value grew by 46.6% (from €1.34 billion to €1.97 billion). This suggests that while imports met incremental demand, a robust and expanding EU manufacturing base persisted. The growth in production value outpacing quantity indicates a potential move towards higher-value products or inflationary pressures in production costs (Production volumes).

Specialization Varies Widely Across EU Member States

Analysis of 2025 data reveals stark differences in the trade specialization of EU member states. Lithuania, Romania, and Croatia showed a strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 2.5), indicating they are particularly specialized exporters of these plastic sacks within the EU context. In contrast, Luxembourg, Cyprus, and Malta exhibited significant negative specialization, acting primarily as importers or having negligible production/export shares. This points to a regional division of labor within the single market (Specialisation).

3. Rising Vulnerability and Encountered Market Shocks

The structural shift towards greater import reliance, coupled with the concentrated nature of trade, has heightened the EU market's exposure to external volatility and specific supply-side disruptions.

The EU Became a Net Importer of Plastic Sacks

The net import reliance metric starkly captures this vulnerability shift. It moved from -2.8% in 2015 (indicating the EU was a net exporter) to +2.7% in 2025 (indicating net import dependence). This swing of nearly 6 percentage points underscores a fundamental change in the EU's strategic position for this product. Concurrently, trade intensity (the share of trade in production) and export propensity (export share of production) both increased by over 55%, showing that the EU's plastics packaging sector became more globally integrated but, for this specific product, more exposed through imports (Net import reliance).

Several Export Markets Experienced Price Shocks

The volatility analysis detected several significant price shocks in EU export flows. The most pronounced were:

• A +77.2% price shock to Mexico in 2021, with an abnormality score of 1396.2, indicating a severe and unusual price spike.
• A +71.2% price shock to Chile in 2019.
• A +41.7% price shock to Türkiye in 2022. These events suggest periods of acute market stress, possibly linked to logistical disruptions, raw material cost spikes, or sudden demand changes in those destination markets (Supply shocks).

Conclusion

The EU market for plastic sacks (CN 39232990) underwent a significant structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The decade was characterized by an import-led expansion that dwarfed export growth, converting the EU from a net exporter to a net importer. This dynamic was fueled by strong supply from China and the United Kingdom, leading to increased concentration in trade flows.

Despite this, EU domestic production continued to grow, with clear emerging specialization among member states. The overarching trend, however, is one of growing external dependency and market integration. The sector's rising trade intensity and net import reliance highlight increased vulnerability to global supply chain dynamics and price fluctuations in third-country markets. The detected price shocks in key export destinations further illustrate the volatility inherent in this more interconnected market. Future stability and competitiveness will likely depend on balancing efficient global sourcing with resilient domestic and intra-EU production capacities.