Market evolution: Synthetic resins (CN 3911) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in products classified under Combined Nomenclature code 3911 — a broad heading that encompasses petroleum resins, coumarone-indene resins, polyterpenes, polysulphides, polysulphones, and other synthetic polymers and prepolymers in primary forms. The analysis covers the full eleven-year window from 2015 to 2025 at annual frequency.

The period under review was one of profound structural change. The EU moved from a comfortable trade surplus of €185 million in 2015 to a deficit of €182 million by 2025 — a swing of nearly €367 million. This transformation was driven not by a collapse in exports, which actually grew modestly in value (+3.7%) and substantially in volume (+26.4%), but by an import surge that saw inbound quantities more than double (+106.5%) and values rise by 61.5%. At the same time, unit prices fell on both sides of the ledger, signalling a structural shift toward lower-value-added flows or, alternatively, a global repricing of commodity-grade synthetic resins.

The full product scope is detailed in the Scope & Definitions section of the dashboard.

A trade surplus turned deficit: the import boom reshapes the EU's position

Imports more than doubled in volume while unit prices declined

The most consequential dynamic of the 2015–2025 period was the rapid growth of extra-EU imports. In volume terms, imports rose from 176,093 tonnes in 2015 to 363,548 tonnes in 2025 — an increase of 106.5%. In value terms, the increase was from €647 million to €1,045 million (+61.5%). The gap between the volume and value growth rates reflects a decline in the average import price from €3,673/t to €2,873/t (−21.8%). This price erosion mirrors the broader trend in petrochemical and specialty polymer markets, where overcapacity in Asia — particularly China — has exerted persistent downward pressure.

All figures are drawn from the General Overview.

EU exports held their value but lost ground in relative terms

EU exports of CN 3911 products grew only modestly over the decade — from €832 million to €862 million — despite a 26.4% increase in shipped volume. The average export price fell from €3,904/t to €3,201/t, mirroring the import-side decline. The fact that the EU managed to expand volumes suggests some competitiveness in higher-volume segments (particularly 391190 — polysulphides, polysulphones and other synthetic polymers), but the value growth was insufficient to keep pace with the import surge. The result was the erosion and eventual reversal of the trade surplus.

The two main sub-headings tell divergent stories

The product breakdown reveals that the two principal sub-headings — 391110 (petroleum resins, coumarone-indene resins and polyterpenes) and 391190 (polysulphides, polysulphones and other synthetic polymers) — evolved along quite different paths.

Figures from the Product Segment Breakdown.

Sub-heading 391110 experienced explosive import growth (+130% in volume) while its exports halved — a clear signal of mounting import competition in the petroleum-resin and polyterpene space. By contrast, 391190 — which covers higher-value specialty polymers — saw both imports and exports grow by roughly 60%, and it remains the EU's dominant export category, accounting for the vast majority of export value (€764 million out of €862 million in 2025). The EU's competitive strength thus appears concentrated in the more specialty segment, while the more commodity-oriented petroleum-resin segment is increasingly supplied from abroad.

Net import reliance improved — but only because of rising domestic re-export intensity

One seemingly paradoxical indicator is the net import reliance, which fell from 16.1% in 2015 to 6.5% in 2025. However, this metric also reached a minimum of −24.5% in an intermediate year, indicating a period when the EU was a significant net exporter. The current reading near zero masks the fact that the underlying composition has shifted: the EU now imports far more in raw or semi-finished resin form but processes and re-exports specialty polymer blends. The trade intensity ratio surged from 40.6% to 77.8%, and export propensity rose from 18.3% to 62.3% — both pointing to an EU chemical sector that has become far more internationally intertwined, importing feedstocks and intermediates while exporting higher-value finished specialty resins.

The Asian pivot: China, South Korea and Singapore redraw the import map

China became the EU's fastest-growing supplier, nearly quintupling its share

The most dramatic geographic shift on the import side was the rise of China. Chinese exports of CN 3911 products to the EU grew from €63 million in 2015 to €281 million in 2025 — a 345.6% increase in value. China's share of extra-EU imports thus expanded from roughly 10% to approximately 27%. This surge is consistent with China's massive build-out of petrochemical and specialty polymer capacity during the 2015–2023 period, which created exportable surpluses across multiple resin categories.

Data from top import partners.

South Korea and Japan solidified their positions as major Asian suppliers

South Korea more than doubled its exports to the EU (from €88 million to €182 million), while Japan grew from €62 million to €107 million. Both countries are major producers of specialty polymers, including polysulphones and high-performance resins. Singapore's trajectory is even more striking in percentage terms — from near-zero to €64 million — though in absolute terms it remains smaller than the North-East Asian suppliers. The Singapore figure likely reflects the role of the city-state as a trading hub for petrochemical products originating elsewhere in Southeast Asia.

The United States remained the largest single supplier but lost relative ground

The United States was already the EU's largest extra-EU supplier in 2015 at €313 million and remained close to the top in 2025 at €290 million — a slight decline of 7.4%. In a market that grew overall, this implies a significant loss of market share. The US position as a long-standing, stable supplier is reflected in its relatively low volatility coefficient (0.20 for imports). However, the rise of Asian competitors — particularly China — has eroded the US's dominant position.

Import concentration fell as supply sources diversified

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 2,795 to 1,968 — a decline of 29.6% — indicating that the EU's import base became substantially less concentrated over the decade. The market shifted from heavy reliance on the United States toward a more balanced portfolio including China, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore. This diversification reduces single-source dependency risk, though it also introduces new exposure to Asian supply-chain disruptions.

EU exports to Russia collapsed following geopolitical events

On the export side, the most notable development was the near-total cessation of trade with the Russian Federation. EU exports to Russia fell from €27 million in 2015 to just €3 million in 2025 (−89.0%), reflecting the impact of EU sanctions imposed from 2022 onward. Russia had been a moderately important destination, with a peak of €45 million in an intermediate year. The volatility coefficient for this trade flow was high (0.45), consistent with a relationship disrupted by exogenous policy shocks.

By contrast, exports to Türkiye (+48.9% to €71 million), Japan (+32.0% to €67 million), and especially China (+35.9% to €123 million) grew, partially compensating for the loss of the Russian market. The United States remained the EU's single largest export destination at €174 million.

The United Kingdom's post-Brexit decline as an export destination

EU exports to the United Kingdom fell from €115 million in 2015 to €76 million in 2025 (−33.9%). While the UK remained a top-3 destination, this decline — coupled with very high export volatility (coefficient of 0.76, the highest among all major partners) — suggests that the post-Brexit trade regime introduced friction into what was previously a seamless flow. The UK data also shows that 2025 was the minimum in the series, hinting at an ongoing adjustment.

Price shocks concentrated in 2020–2022

The shock analysis identifies three notable events:

The South Korean import-price shock in 2022 is the most significant in macro terms, given that South Korea accounted for nearly 19% of EU import value. The 2022 timing aligns with the global energy-price spike triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which raised feedstock costs across the petrochemical chain and caused particular dislocations in Asian–European trade flows. The Singapore export-price shock in 2020 may reflect the pandemic-era dislocation of maritime logistics and the resulting repricing of spot-market transactions.

Industrial restructuring: EU production shifts to higher value while volumes decline

EU production volumes fell 21% but values rose 51%

According to production data, EU domestic production of CN 3911 products declined from 506 million kg (2015) to 400 million kg (2025) in volume terms — a 21% drop. At the same time, production value rose from €996 million to €1,500 million (+50.7%). This divergence is striking: it implies that the average unit value of EU-produced resin roughly doubled over the period, from approximately €2.0/kg to approximately €3.8/kg. This points to a deliberate shift in the EU's production mix toward higher-value, more specialised polymer grades — consistent with the general industrial strategy of moving away from commodity chemicals toward performance materials.

Germany dominates production but other member states show divergent trends

The specialisation data for 2025 highlights the geographic concentration of CN 3911 production within the EU:

Germany accounted for nearly 30% of EU production value and maintained a strong export position (€480 million in exports in 2025, up 10.2% from 2015). Belgium and the Netherlands together contributed another 44%, with Belgium showing the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 2.75) among large producers. Estonia's high RCA is an artefact of its small overall economy — its absolute production is negligible.

Italy emerged as a major exporter while France and the Netherlands retrenched

Among EU Member State exporters, the most dramatic shift was Italy's rise from €26 million to €81 million (+208.6%) in extra-EU exports. Meanwhile, France's exports fell from €153 million to €87 million (−43.0%) and the Netherlands' dropped from €101 million to €53 million (−47.2%). These movements likely reflect both company-level investment decisions and the broader trend of Southern European chemical firms gaining competitiveness in specialty resin niches.

On the import side, the Netherlands saw the largest increase (+157.9%, from €94 million to €242 million), consistent with the country's role as a major petrochemical trading and logistics hub (Rotterdam). Belgium, already the largest importer, grew more modestly (+13.2%).

Export concentration increased in volume, signalling consolidation

While the HHI for import concentration fell (from 2,795 to 1,968 by value), the volume-based export HHI rose sharply from 686 to 2,227 (+224.6%). This indicates that EU export volumes became far more concentrated in a smaller number of destinations. Combining this with the geographic data, the likely explanation is that the 391190 sub-heading's volume surge was channelled predominantly to the United States and a handful of other large markets, while smaller destinations saw stagnant or declining shipments.

Conclusion

The EU's market for CN 3911 synthetic resins underwent a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. What was once a sector with a comfortable trade surplus became one where imports substantially exceed exports, driven by a near-doupling of import volumes and the rapid ascent of Asian suppliers — above all China (+345.6%), South Korea (+106.2%) and Singapore. The EU's production base, while shrinking in physical volume (−21%), has moved up the value chain, and the country's specialty-polymer exports (sub-heading 391190) continued to grow. However, the commodity-adjacent petroleum-resin segment (391110) saw EU exports halve while imports surged, indicating a loss of competitiveness in this lower-margin category.

Key risks going forward include the EU's growing import dependency in petroleum resins, continued price erosion from Asian overcapacity, and geopolitical disruptions to established trade flows — as illustrated by the collapse in EU–Russia trade. Conversely, the EU's demonstrated ability to shift production toward higher-value polymers and to diversify its import sources (HHI declining by 30%) suggests a sector that is adapting, albeit unevenly, to the new competitive landscape.