Market evolution: Nylon (CN 3908) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in polyamides in primary forms (Customs classification CN 3908) over the period 2015–2025. The CN 3908 heading covers two sub-segments: standard engineering polyamides such as PA6, PA66, PA11, and PA12 (CN 390810), and other polyamides (CN 390890), which include specialty and high-performance grades. Polyamides are among the most commercially significant engineering thermoplastics, used widely in automotive, electronics, textiles, and packaging applications.

Over the decade examined, the EU's polyamide trade underwent a profound structural transformation. While the bloc remained a consistent net exporter, the dynamics behind that position shifted materially. Export volumes declined by more than a quarter, yet values barely moved, sustained by dramatic unit-price increases. Meanwhile, imports grew in both volume and value, narrowing the absolute trade surplus. At the same time, the geographic composition of trade partners changed markedly — shaped by Brexit, sanctions on Russia, and the rapid rise of China and Türkiye as suppliers. The energy-price shock of 2022 left a pronounced mark on polyamide pricing across all segments. This report unpacks these dynamics across three thematic sections.

1. Volume Retreat, Price Advance: The Structural Rebalancing of EU Polyamide Trade

1.1 Export volumes fell by over a quarter while export values barely moved

The most striking feature of the decade is the divergence between volume and value trends on the export side. Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's polyamide exports by volume fell from 599,000 t to 440,000 t (−26.6%), yet the total value edged up from €1.74 billion to €1.79 billion (+2.5%). The mechanism is straightforward: the average export unit price rose from €2,911/t to €4,065/t (+39.6%), more than compensating for the volume contraction.

This pattern was not uniform across sub-segments. Standard polyamides (CN 390810) saw their export volume drop from 474,000 t to 305,000 t (−35.7%), while the higher-value "other polyamides" (CN 390890) actually grew from 125,000 t to 135,000 t (+7.7%). As a result, specialty grades gained share in the EU's export basket — 390890 accounted for 40% of export value in 2025, up from 29% in 2015 — pointing to a gradual move up the value chain.

1.2 Imports grew substantially, driven by both volume gains and price inflation

On the import side, the picture is one of sustained growth. Total import value rose from €896 million to €1.20 billion (+34.1%), while quantities climbed from 289,000 t to 353,000 t (+22.1%). The average import price increased by 9.8% (from €3,103/t to €3,407/t) — a more moderate rise than on the export side.

Import growth was broad-based but concentrated in standard polyamides (CN 390810), whose volumes rose from 221,000 t to 257,000 t (+16.4%). The 390890 sub-segment grew faster in proportional terms, from 68,000 t to 95,000 t (+40.5%), suggesting rising EU demand for specialty polyamide grades that may not be fully met by domestic production.

1.3 The absolute trade surplus shrank, though the EU's relative net-exporter position strengthened

The combined effect of flat export values and rapidly growing import values was a 30.8% erosion of the trade surplus, which fell from €847 million to €586 million. Over the period, the surplus dipped as low as €441 million and peaked at €1.04 billion.

Paradoxically, the EU's net import reliance — a ratio of the trade balance to apparent domestic consumption — improved from −1.7% to −11.3%. This is explained by the simultaneous 47.5% growth in domestic production value (from €4.60 billion to €6.78 billion). In other words, the EU's polyamide industry expanded its output faster than imports eroded its market share, even though the absolute euro surplus narrowed. The export propensity of the EU industry also surged from 17.9% to 29.1%, indicating that EU producers became significantly more export-oriented over the period.

2. Shifting Frontiers: The Geopolitical Reorientation of Polyamide Partners

2.1 China and Türkiye emerged as the fastest-growing import suppliers

The geographic composition of the EU's polyamide imports changed dramatically. While the United States and Switzerland remained the two largest suppliers throughout the period, the most dynamic growth came from China and Türkiye:

Chinese polyamide imports surged by 471.5% — from just €26 million in 2015 to €148 million in 2025 — making China the fourth-largest supplier by the end of the period. Türkiye followed a similar trajectory (+319.7%), rising from €25 million to €104 million. Both trends reflect the broader expansion of Chinese and Turkish polymer production capacity and, in the case of China, increasingly competitive pricing.

2.2 Russian polyamide trade collapsed following sanctions

The most dramatic reversal in the partner landscape was the near-total disappearance of Russian polyamide imports. From €29 million in 2015, they fell to just €1 million in 2025 — a 98.1% decline. The bulk of this collapse occurred after 2022, following the EU's sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Belarusian imports also contracted, from €28 million to €19 million (−32.3%), though less completely. Together, the loss of these suppliers redirected significant volumes toward alternative origins, reinforcing the rise of China and Türkiye.

2.3 Export destinations shifted: Korea and Brazil declined while closer markets held

On the export side, the EU's top seven partners experienced mixed fortunes:

The steepest decline was in exports to South Korea, which collapsed by 69.8% — from €156 million to just €47 million. This likely reflects the build-out of domestic Korean polyamide capacity (notably by producers such as Hyosung and Kolon), which reduced the need for EU supply. Brazilian exports also contracted (−22.3%), consistent with the broader economic turbulence in that market. By contrast, Türkiye (+40.8%) and the United States (+22.4%) absorbed more EU polyamide output, while China remained the single largest export destination at €360 million.

2.4 Germany dominates EU-internal polyamide flows

Within the EU, polyamide trade is heavily concentrated in a handful of member states. Germany accounted for the largest share of both exports (€678 million, roughly 38% of the EU total) and imports (€450 million) in 2025. Belgium, France, and the Netherlands also feature prominently, reflecting their roles as both production hubs and logistics gateways.

Notably, Italy more than doubled its imports (+120.4%), and Poland more than doubled its exports (+105.1%), suggesting a geographical broadening of the EU's polyamide production and trade base beyond the traditional Western European core.

3. Energy, Inflation, and the 2022 Price Spike

3.1 Polyamide prices peaked sharply in 2022 before partially correcting

The year 2022 stands out as an inflection point across all polyamide trade flows. Examining unit prices by sub-segment reveals a consistent pattern of sharp price inflation in 2022, followed by a partial correction:

The 2022 spike was rooted in the European energy crisis that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Polyamide production is energy-intensive — caprolactam synthesis (the precursor to PA6) and adipic acid production (for PA66) both require substantial process heat and feedstock. The surge in European natural gas and electricity prices transmitted directly into higher polyamide production costs and, consequently, elevated export and import prices.

By 2025, standard polyamide (390810) prices had largely corrected back toward pre-shock levels — import prices actually fell below 2015 values (€2,693/t vs. €2,453/t in 2015). However, the specialty segment (390890) proved stickier: export prices at €5,301/t in 2025 remained near their 2022 peak, suggesting more persistent pricing power in higher-value grades.

3.2 Price shocks were most severe in US-facing trade flows

The shock detection analysis identifies the three most significant abnormal price events, all centred on 2022:

The highest-abnormality event (score 20.9) was the US → EU import price shock, with US-origin polyamide prices jumping 37.2% in 2022. This was likely a combination of US producers passing through their own feedstock cost increases and strong demand from EU buyers seeking to replace disrupted Russian and Belarusian supply. The US also experienced a +48.1% price shift on exports to the EU, suggesting a two-way cost transmission across the Atlantic. A +70.4% price spike in Brazilian polyamide exports to the EU rounded out the top three, though its smaller value share (7.0%) limited its overall market impact.

3.3 Price and volume volatility varies sharply across trading partners

The coefficient of variation (CV) of bilateral trade flows reveals markedly different degrees of stability:

Highest import-side volatility (by value CV):

Lowest import-side volatility:

China's import flows exhibit the highest volatility (CV 0.92), consistent with the rapid and lumpy growth of Chinese polyamide shipments to the EU — a pattern typical of a supplier still scaling up its market presence. By contrast, the long-established US–EU and Switzerland–EU polyamide corridors are remarkably stable (CVs of 0.13 and 0.09 respectively), reflecting deep supply-chain integration and long-term contract structures.

On the export side, South Korea (CV 0.71) and Hong Kong (CV 0.70) displayed the highest volatility, while the US (0.12), Türkiye (0.12), and Switzerland (0.12) were the most stable export destinations.

Conclusion

The EU's polyamide trade over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural adaptation under pressure. The bloc remained a net exporter throughout, but the character of that position changed fundamentally. Export volumes contracted by more than a quarter, yet export values were sustained — and even grew slightly — thanks to a 40% rise in unit prices. Imports, meanwhile, grew by a third in value, driven by volume gains from new suppliers (notably China and Türkiye) and the disappearance of Russian supply following sanctions.

The 2022 energy crisis left an indelible mark on polyamide pricing. Prices surged across all sub-segments and bilateral flows, with the sharpest shocks concentrated in US- and Brazilian-facing trade. While standard-grade prices have since largely corrected, specialty polyamide prices remain elevated, embedding higher cost structures in the premium segment of the market.

Looking at the concentration metrics, the EU's import base is moderately concentrated (HHI ~2,500), with the US and Switzerland accounting for a dominant share. The export side is more diversified (HHI ~1,000), though it has become slightly more concentrated over time (+8.8%). The growing role of China as both a supplier and a competitor, the collapse of Russian trade, and the erosion of South Korean export demand collectively signal a polyamide market being reshaped by geopolitical realignment and industrial capacity shifts in Asia. EU producers, for their part, have responded by moving up the value chain — with specialty polyamides (CN 390890) gaining share in both imports and exports — and by intensifying their export orientation, as reflected in the sharp rise in export propensity from 17.9% to 29.1%.