Market evolution: Polymer resins (CN 3907) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 3907 is a broad customs heading covering polyacetals, polyethers, epoxide resins, polycarbonates, alkyd resins, PET, polyesters, and related engineering and commodity plastics in primary forms. Together, these products form one of the largest polymer categories traded by the European Union. Over the decade from 2015 to 2025, the EU's external trade in this product group has undergone a dramatic structural transformation. The Union entered the period as a comfortable net exporter with a €2.2 billion trade surplus; by 2025, that surplus had essentially vanished. Imports nearly doubled in volume while exports contracted, partner geographies shifted sharply, and EU domestic production declined in quantity even as it edged up in value. This report examines the main dynamics behind these changes, drawing on the overall trade dashboard and related analytical views.

1. From Surplus to Deficit: The Collapse of the EU's Trade Balance

The overall trade balance swung by over €2 billion in a single decade

In 2015, the EU exported €5.22 billion worth of CN 3907 products to non-EU countries while importing €2.98 billion, yielding a healthy surplus of approximately €2.24 billion. By 2025, exports had slipped to €4.91 billion while imports surged to €5.07 billion, turning the balance into a deficit of €158 million — a swing of roughly €2.4 billion. The net import reliance indicator confirms the trajectory: it moved from −8.5% in 2015 (net exporter) to −0.4% in 2025, and even briefly turned positive (at +2.3%) at one point during the period, meaning the EU momentarily became a net importer.

Export volumes fell sharply even as unit values rose

Source: General Overview

EU exporters shipped 550,000 fewer tonnes abroad in 2025 than in 2015, a volume decline of 22.4%. However, because export unit prices rose by 21.3% (from €2,121/t to €2,573/t), the value decline was cushioned to just 5.8%. By contrast, import volumes surged by 82.2% while import unit prices actually fell by 6.7% — indicating that the EU increasingly sourced lower-priced material from third-country suppliers.

Domestic production shrank in volume but held up in value

EU production volumes declined from 9.15 billion kg to 7.84 billion kg over the period (−14.4%), yet production value rose from €14.23 billion to €15.17 billion (+6.6%). This divergence — less volume but more value — points to a combination of product-mix upgrading toward higher-value resins and general input-cost inflation, particularly after the 2021–2022 energy and commodity price spikes. It also suggests that some lower-margin, bulk polymer production may have been offshored, while the EU retained higher-value manufacturing.

Trade intensity and export propensity both increased markedly

Despite the trade balance erosion, the EU's polymer resin sector became more trade-exposed over the decade. Trade intensity (imports + exports as a share of apparent consumption) rose from 35.5% to 50.5% (+42.3%), while export propensity (exports as a share of production) climbed from 24.6% to 33.9% (+37.6%). This growing openness means that EU manufacturers and downstream consumers are now considerably more exposed to international supply and demand dynamics than they were at the start of the period.

2. A Shifting Map of Partners: Asia Rising, Russia Collapsing

Asian suppliers gained enormous ground in EU import markets

The most striking partner-level development has been the surge of Asian-origin imports. The country-level import data shows the following evolution among the top seven suppliers:

China's imports into the EU grew nearly fivefold, from €132 million to €635 million, having peaked at over €1.2 billion during the 2022 price spike. Türkiye's imports more than tripled, rising from €229 million to €749 million, making it the EU's second-largest extra-EU supplier by 2025 — up from sixth position in 2015. Most remarkably, Vietnamese exports to the EU grew from virtually zero (€0.2 million) to €354 million, representing one of the fastest-growing bilateral trade flows in this product group.

Korea remained the top single-country supplier throughout the period, growing from €493 million to €723 million, though it too peaked above €1 billion in 2022. The United Kingdom, by contrast, saw its supply to the EU decline by 23.6% — a trend likely linked to post-Brexit trade friction.

Import supply concentration declined as new origins emerged

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 1,108 to 916 over the period (−17.3%), confirming that import sourcing became more diversified. While this diversification reduces single-supplier dependency risk, it also reflects the competitive pressure that new entrants — particularly from Asia — are exerting on EU producers.

EU exports to Russia collapsed following geopolitical upheaval

On the export side, the most dramatic change was the near-total loss of the Russian market. EU exports to Russia fell from €296 million in 2015 to just €33 million in 2025 (−88.7%), with a peak of €467 million in between. The decline accelerated sharply after 2022 in the context of EU sanctions on Russia. This lost market was only partially offset by growth elsewhere.

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest single export destination (€957 million), but essentially stagnated (−2.5%). The United States was the bright spot, growing by 32.3% to €522 million. The export-side HHI rose slightly from 793 to 883 (+11.4%), consistent with the loss of a previously significant destination (Russia) increasing the relative weight of remaining partners.

Germany dominates intra-EU flows, but southern members gained import share

Among EU Member States, Germany was the largest single-country importer (€860 million in 2025) and by far the largest exporter (€1.54 billion). However, the fastest import growth came from Spain (+208.6%), Poland (+261.0%), Belgium (+96.3%), and Italy (+79.3%), suggesting a geographic broadening of import absorption within the EU. On the export side, the Netherlands (−36.7%) and Spain (−35.2%) saw notable declines, while Italy (+20.0%) and Belgium (+21.3%) gained ground.

In terms of revealed comparative advantage, Lithuania (RSCA 0.68), Belgium (0.30), Luxembourg (0.24), Spain (0.18), and Italy (0.12) displayed the strongest specialisation in CN 3907 exports in 2025, while Ireland (−0.92), Denmark (−0.78), and Czechia (−0.58) were the least specialised.

3. Price Shocks, Segment Shifts, and Emerging Vulnerabilities

The 2021–2022 energy and commodity boom produced severe price spikes

Across most CN 3907 sub-products, unit prices peaked sharply in 2022 before moderating in 2023–2025. For instance, import prices for epoxide resins (390730) surged from €3,394/t in 2020 to €5,383/t in 2022 (+58.6%) before falling back to €3,937/t in 2025. Similarly, polycarbonate import prices (390740) jumped from €2,077/t to €3,027/t in the same window, then slid to €1,782/t — actually below the 2015 starting level. The supply shock detection identified three statistically significant price shocks, all centred on 2021:

• China → EU imports: abnormality 10.9, price shift +49.7%, representing 13.8% of import value
• Taiwan → EU imports: abnormality 10.0, price shift +76.8%, representing 6.0% of import value
• EU → Egypt exports: abnormality 83.3, price shift +39.8%, representing 1.8% of export value

These events are consistent with the post-COVID demand recovery, surging energy costs, and global logistics disruptions that characterised 2021–2022.

Import volatility is highest for newer, fast-growing suppliers

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values reveals that newer suppliers also tend to be the most volatile:

Vietnam's CV of 1.02 indicates extreme year-to-year swings — consistent with a trade flow that grew from near-zero to over €350 million. Korea, the most established supplier, had the lowest volatility (CV 0.10), suggesting more stable, entrenched supply relationships. On the export side, Russia was the most volatile destination (CV 0.54), reflecting its rapid decline, while Switzerland (0.07) and the United Kingdom (0.08) were the most stable.

PET high-viscosity dominates import volumes, but polycarbonates and polyethers are the fastest-growing segments

Examining the sub-product breakdown, PET with high viscosity (390761) was by far the largest import segment by volume in 2025 at 1,383 kt — a 62.4% increase from the 852 kt reported in 2017 (the first year with data for this sub-line). However, the most notable growth trajectories belong to other sub-products:

Polycarbonate imports more than doubled in volume (from 83 kt to 220 kt, +163.9%), likely driven by demand from the automotive, electronics, and construction sectors. Epoxide resin imports, by contrast, declined by 13.4% — though their unit value (€3,937/t in 2025) remained the highest among all sub-products, reflecting the specialty nature of these materials.

The polyethers category (390729) only appears in the data from 2022, likely reflecting a reclassification or new separate reporting line. It immediately registered as a major category: 338 kt of imports (€883 million) and 523 kt of exports (€1.38 billion) in 2025, suggesting the EU is a significant net exporter of polyethers even as it runs deficits in other sub-categories.

Export-side segment dynamics reveal structural shifts in EU competitiveness

On the export side, the picture is notably different. Saturated polyesters (390799) remained the largest single export sub-product by value (€1.09 billion in 2025), followed by polyethers (390729, €1.38 billion — from 2022 data), epoxide resins (390730, €672 million), and polycarbonates (390740, €369 million). The most concerning trend is in epoxide resins: EU export volumes fell from 227 kt in 2015 to 152 kt in 2025 (−33.1%), and their value declined from €734 million to €672 million (−8.5%) despite the 2022 price spike. This suggests a structural erosion of EU competitiveness in this higher-value segment, potentially linked to capacity expansions in Asia.

Polycarbonate export volumes also declined from 262 kt to 189 kt (−28.0%), while their value fell from €587 million to €369 million (−37.1%), a steeper decline than in volume terms, indicating that the EU lost both market share and pricing power.

Conclusion

The EU's trade position in polymer resins (CN 3907) has fundamentally shifted over 2015–2025. A comfortable €2.2 billion surplus in 2015 has given way to near-parity, with the balance briefly tipping into deficit. This reversal was driven not by an export collapse — exports lost only 5.8% in value — but by a dramatic 70% surge in imports, led by suppliers from South Korea, Türkiye, China, and Vietnam. EU domestic production declined by 14% in volume but held up in value, suggesting a partial shift toward higher-margin products.

The geographic reconfiguration of trade flows has been shaped by two countervailing forces: the rise of Asian manufacturing capacity (particularly in PET and polyethers) and the geopolitical isolation of Russia, which cost the EU one of its formerly significant export markets. At the product-segment level, the EU retains strong export positions in saturated polyesters and polyethers, but is losing ground in epoxide resins and polycarbonates — segments that carry higher unit values and strategic importance.

Looking at vulnerability indicators, the EU's polymer resin sector is now significantly more trade-exposed than a decade ago (trade intensity up to 50.5%), with import sourcing that is more geographically diversified but also more volatile, especially from newer Asian suppliers. The combination of declining production volumes, a vanishing trade surplus, and increasing import penetration suggests that the EU faces a medium-term structural challenge in maintaining its position in this critical materials category.