Market evolution: Unsaturated polyesters (CN 390791) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in unsaturated polyesters (customs code 390791) over the period from 2015 to 2025. This product group, which excludes polycarbonates and polyethylene terephthalate, is a key category within the broader plastics sector. The analysis reveals a profound structural shift in the EU's trade position, moving from a consistent net exporter to a state of near-balanced trade, driven by a dramatic rise in imports from specific partners. The report identifies three main dynamics underlying this transformation: a fundamental reversal in trade flows, a collapse in domestic production leading to increased import concentration, and heightened market volatility accompanied by geopolitical shocks.

1. Structural Trade Reversal: The EU Becomes an Import-Dependent Market

The most striking development over the decade is the complete reversal of the EU's trade balance for CN 390791. The Union transitioned from being a significant net exporter to a market with a negligible trade surplus, heavily reliant on imported volumes.

1.1 From Trade Surplus to Balance: A Decade in Numbers

The EU's trade surplus in unsaturated polyesters eroded dramatically between 2015 and 2025. The positive balance in value terms fell from over €206 million in 2015 to just €68 million in 2025, a decline of 67%. This collapse was driven by concurrent trends in exports and imports:

While export values saw a modest decline, the more dramatic factor was the 72% surge in import values. This increase was volume-driven; imported quantities more than doubled (+120.7%), even as import prices fell by 22%.

1.2 The Volume Shift: A Divergence in Export and Import Trajectories

Analysing volumes clarifies the scale of this shift. EU export quantities contracted by nearly 30%, falling from 168,464 tonnes in 2015 to 118,556 tonnes in 2025. In contrast, import volumes surged from 61,754 tonnes to 136,287 tonnes. By 2025, the EU was importing nearly as much as it was exporting, fundamentally altering the market's supply dynamics.

2. Production Collapse and Increased Import Concentration

The root cause of the import surge lies in a severe contraction of EU domestic production, which forced downstream industries to seek supply from abroad. This necessity concentrated the EU's import dependence on a very limited number of partners.

2.1 A Collapse in EU Production Volumes

EU production of CN 390791 products experienced a dramatic decline. According to PRODCOM data, production quantity fell by 54.2%, from 1.18 billion kg in 2015 to 540 million kg in 2025. Production value also fell by 25.0%, indicating that the contraction was not just a shift to lower-value products but a genuine reduction in output. This supply gap directly explains the rise in imports.

2.2 Turkey's Dominant Role in Filling the Supply Gap

The surge in imports was overwhelmingly sourced from a single country: Türkiye. EU imports from Turkey grew from €6.8 million in 2015 to €138.9 million in 2025, an astronomical increase of 1,941.4%. Turkey's share of EU imports skyrocketed, making it by far the bloc's largest supplier. This led to a sharp increase in import concentration; the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose by 76%, signalling a move from a diversified to a highly concentrated import market.

2.3 A Fragmented EU Production Landscape

The production decline was not uniform across the EU. Data on national specialisation shows a fragmented picture. While traditional producers like Italy (a major specialised producer in 2025, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage of 0.52) and France saw their exports decline (Italy by 18.6%, France by 24.1%), other member states like the Netherlands (+125.7%) and Poland (+70.0%) significantly increased their export shares. This suggests internal restructuring and potential relocation of production capabilities within the bloc, which may have contributed to the overall output decline.

3. Heightened Volatility and Geopolitical Risks in Trade Flows

The period was also marked by significant price and volume volatility, particularly in import channels, and was punctuated by specific geopolitical shocks that disrupted established trade patterns.

3.1 Asymmetric Price Developments: Export vs. Import Price Trends

Price trends diverged sharply between exports and imports. EU export prices increased by 26.1% over the period, reaching €2,586 per tonne in 2025. In stark contrast, import prices fell by 22.0% to €1,748 per tonne. This created a substantial price advantage for imported material, likely driven by the cost-competitive supply from Turkey and other nations, which further incentivized the shift away from EU-produced goods.

3.2 High Volatility in Sourcing from Key Partners

Analysis of the coefficient of variation (CV) reveals that supply from several key import partners was highly volatile. Imports from the United Arab Emirates (CV: 1.01), Serbia (CV: 1.19), and China (CV: 0.95) showed extreme fluctuations, indicating unstable or opportunistic trade flows that could pose supply chain risks.

3.3 Geopolitical Shocks: The Cases of the UK and Russia

The data highlights specific shock events tied to geopolitical developments:

• United Kingdom (Exports): A significant price shock (abnormality index: 5.8) occurred in 2021, with a 27.6% price shift, coinciding with the implementation of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement post-Brexit.
• Russian Federation (Exports): Export values to Russia fell by 52% over the period, from €22.9 million to €11.0 million, a decline starkly visible by 2025 and likely accelerated by EU sanctions following 2022.
• Israel (Exports): The collapse in exports to Israel (-89.2%) represents one of the most severe declines, moving from a major market to a minor destination.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU market for unsaturated polyesters (CN 390791) underwent a fundamental transformation. The Union shifted from a robust net exporter to a market with balanced but now import-dependent trade, characterised by a 54% collapse in domestic production. This production void was rapidly filled by imports from Türkiye, which grew by over 1,940%, leading to a highly concentrated and volatile import supply chain. Concurrent trends included diverging price pressures, with cheaper imports undercutting rising export prices, and the materialisation of significant trade shocks linked to Brexit and EU sanctions on Russia. The data indicates a loss of EU production capacity and a growing structural vulnerability to supply from a limited number of external partners.