Market evolution: High viscosity PET (CN 390761) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in polyethylene terephthalate (PET) in primary forms with a viscosity number of ≥ 78 ml/g (customs code 390761). High viscosity PET is a critical industrial polymer used primarily for bottle-grade preforms, food packaging, and textile fibres. The EU has historically been a net importer of this product, and the data available from 2017 to 2025 reveals a decade of significant structural transformation — involving rapid supply-chain realignment, substantial domestic capacity expansion, and notable price volatility linked to global energy and geopolitical shocks.

1. A Rapidly Growing Market Dominated by Imports

EU imports of high viscosity PET grew much faster than exports

Over the period for which data is available, the EU's total trade in CN 390761 expanded substantially, but this growth was heavily asymmetric between imports and exports.

Imports increased by 62% in volume, while exports grew by only 17%. Crucially, import prices rose by a modest 3.7% in EUR terms, whereas export prices climbed nearly 20%, suggesting that EU exporters were selling into higher-value niches or facing costlier production inputs.

The trade deficit widened significantly despite growing domestic production

The EU's trade balance in high viscosity PET deteriorated from approximately –584 million EUR in 2017 to –1,042 million EUR in 2025, a widening of 78%. The deficit reached its maximum at –1,172 million EUR, indicating that the structural gap between EU consumption and local production remains large. Yet this deficit must be read alongside domestic production data: EU production quantity more than doubled over the same period, rising from 938,885,728 kg to 2,084,963,340 kg (+122%), with production value growing from 1.03 billion to 2.22 billion EUR (+117%). This indicates that demand growth outpaced even the impressive expansion of EU manufacturing capacity.

2. A Structural Realignment of the EU's Supply Base

Traditional Asian suppliers lost ground to newcomers in the Mediterranean and Southeast Asia

The most striking feature of the data is the dramatic realignment of the EU's import partners. Several long-standing suppliers saw their share collapse, while new sources surged.

Three countries — Türkiye, Viet Nam, and Egypt — went from marginal suppliers to the dominant sources of EU imports, collectively accounting for over 700 million EUR in additional trade. Türkiye's growth reflects its geographic proximity, customs union with the EU, and rapidly expanding PET capacity. Viet Nam and Egypt benefited from cost-competitive new production facilities and, likely, some re-routing of global trade flows.

By contrast, Korea's share fell by three-quarters, India's trade virtually vanished (–98.1%), and China's shipments contracted by 44%. These declines are consistent with anti-dumping duties that the EU has historically applied on PET imports from certain Asian countries, as well as shifting global competitive dynamics.

Import concentration increased while export destinations diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) confirms a structural tightening of the import side: the HHI on imports rose from 1,372 to 1,869 (+36%), moving from a broadly competitive market toward moderate concentration. This means the EU is relying on fewer supplier countries than before — a vulnerability risk if geopolitical or trade-policy disruptions arise.

On the export side, the HHI decreased from 3,764 to 3,274 (–13%), indicating a gradual diversification of export destinations. The United Kingdom remained the overwhelmingly largest export partner (165 million EUR in 2025, +33.5%), but significant growth was recorded in shipments to South Africa (+390%), the United States (+216%), Algeria (+237%), and Serbia (+53%).

Italy and Belgium are the key EU gateways for high viscosity PET trade

Within the EU, member-state data reveals a clear geographic pattern:

• Italy was the largest importing member state at 417 million EUR in 2025, consistent with its position as Europe's largest packaging market.
• Belgium more than tripled its imports (+204%) to 248 million EUR, reflecting its role as a logistics hub via Antwerp.
• Lithuania was the most specialised exporter in 2025 (RCA of 37.3), followed by Croatia (RCA 3.0) and Spain (RCA 2.2). Lithuania's dominance reflects a small number of large-scale PET plants oriented toward export.
• Belgium also became a major exporter, growing by 287% to reach 51 million EUR, confirming its dual role as both importer and re-exporter.

3. Price Shocks, Supply Disruptions, and Geopolitical Volatility

The 2021–2022 energy crisis triggered severe price spikes

The volatility data reveals that EU imports from several partners were highly unstable, with coefficients of variation exceeding 0.70 for Viet Nam, China, Egypt, India, Korea, and the United Kingdom.

The most significant shock events detected in the data centre on 2022, the year of the global energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict:

The Korean price shock in 2022 was the most extreme anomaly detected (abnormality score 10.1), consistent with the global surge in PTA and MEG feedstock costs driven by energy prices. Indonesia experienced a similar price spike of nearly 89%. These events likely reflect the pass-through of elevated crude oil and natural gas prices — the key feedstocks for PET production — through the supply chain.

India's near-total supply collapse in 2024 (–98.5%) is consistent with the EU's trade-defence measures. EU anti-dumping duties on Indian PET have been in place for several years, and the data suggests their effect intensified, effectively removing India as a meaningful supplier.

Export flows are significantly more stable than imports

On the export side, the United Kingdom stands out for its exceptionally low volatility (coefficient of variation 0.06), reflecting the stable, high-volume, short-supply-chain trade relationship characteristic of intra-European commerce. By contrast, exports to Algeria, Argentina, and Kazakhstan were highly volatile (CV > 1.4), suggesting opportunistic, irregular, or politically sensitive trade patterns.

The EU's net import reliance has eased slightly despite the growing trade deficit

The EU's net import reliance fell from 33.1% in 2017 to 29.9% in 2025 (–9.6%), reaching a minimum of 11.4% at one point. Trade intensity also declined from 51.3% to 46.5%, and export propensity dropped from 18.3% to 15.4%. These three indicators, taken together, suggest that the doubling of EU domestic production has partially offset import growth, gradually improving the bloc's self-sufficiency in high viscosity PET — even as the absolute value of imports continues to rise.

Conclusion

The EU market for high viscosity PET (CN 390761) over the 2017–2025 period has been shaped by three interconnected dynamics: rapid demand growth driven by packaging and recycling-related needs, a wholesale realignment of supply sources away from traditional Asian partners and toward Türkiye, Viet Nam, and Egypt, and heightened price volatility linked to the 2022 global energy crisis and ongoing trade-defence actions. While the trade deficit widened in absolute terms, the doubling of EU domestic production capacity has meaningfully reduced the bloc's import reliance. The increasing concentration of imports into fewer supplier countries, however, represents a structural vulnerability that merits continued monitoring. Looking ahead, the interplay between EU circular-economy regulations — which boost demand for food-grade recycled PET — and continued expansion of virgin PET capacity in low-cost countries will be the key forces shaping this market.