Market evolution: Amino phenolic and polyurethane resins (CN 3909) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of amino-resins, phenolic resins, and polyurethanes in primary forms (CN 3909) by the European Union with non-EU countries from 2015 to 2025. The analysis reveals a dynamic period characterized by strong import growth, a significant geographical reshaping of trade partnerships, and volatile price cycles, while the EU has maintained its position as a consistent net exporter. The following sections detail these principal trends.

1. Surging Imports versus Steady Exports: A Divergent Trade Trajectory

Over the period, the EU's trade in CN 3909 products experienced markedly different growth trajectories for imports and exports, leading to a gradual erosion of the trade surplus.

1.1 Import value and volume more than doubled

EU imports of these resins underwent a period of robust expansion. From 2015 to 2025, the value of imports increased by 80.0%, rising from €522.8 million to €941.1 million. This growth was primarily volume-driven, as the quantity imported surged by 121.8% (from 262,158 tonnes to 581,342 tonnes). The peak import value was reached in 2022 at €1,374.4 million. This strong growth underscores the EU's increasing reliance on external suppliers.

1.2 Export growth was positive but more modest

EU exports demonstrated more moderate growth, increasing by 14.3% in value (from €2.65 billion to €3.02 billion) and 5.4% in volume (from 1.32 million tonnes to 1.40 million tonnes). The export peak was also observed in 2022, reaching €3.95 billion.

1.3 The trade balance remained positive but slightly diminished

The EU consistently maintained a positive trade balance throughout the period. However, the balance narrowed slightly by 1.8%, from €2.12 billion in 2015 to €2.08 billion in 2025. The surplus peaked at €2.58 billion in 2022.

2. Geographical Reconfiguration of Trade Flows

The period was defined by a significant shift in the EU's trading partners, particularly on the import side, leading to a diversification of supply sources.

2.1 China became the dominant import partner

The most striking development was the surge in imports from China. Their value skyrocketed by 860.0%, from €21.0 million to €201.1 million, making China the top import partner by value in 2025. Other emerging suppliers also grew rapidly, including Belarus (+71,865%), the Republic of Korea (+444%), and Türkiye (+271%). Meanwhile, imports from traditional partners like the United Kingdom and the United States stagnated or declined. The concentration of import sources (HHI by value) decreased by 15%, confirming this diversification.

2.2 Export destinations showed contrasting fortunes

On the export side, the United States became the most valuable partner, with exports growing by 133.2% to €462.4 million. Conversely, exports to the United Kingdom fell by 35.2%, and those to the Russian Federation dropped sharply by 65.3% after 2021. Türkiye and Ukraine also became more significant export markets.

2.3 Germany remained the core exporter within the EU

Among EU member states, Germany was consistently the largest exporter, accounting for €898.7 million in 2025 (a +2.9% increase since 2015). Belgium saw strong growth (+65.7%), while the Netherlands and Italy recorded slight declines. Hungary emerged as a major exporting hub with a 221.1% increase. On the import side, Germany remained the largest importer, followed by the Netherlands and Belgium.

3. Price Dynamics and Market Volatility

The period featured significant price swings and identified supply shocks, reflecting broader macroeconomic and sectoral pressures.

3.3.1 Price trends diverged between exports and imports

Export unit values showed a general increase over the period, rising 8.4% from €1,998/tonne to €2,165/tonne, with a pronounced spike in 2022 (€2,917/tonne). In contrast, import unit prices were more volatile and ended 18.8% lower than in 2015 (€1,619/tonne in 2025 vs. €1,994/tonne in 2015). This suggests that import growth was partially fueled by lower-priced volumes, particularly from new Asian suppliers.

3.3.2 Specific country flows exhibited high volatility

Coefficient of variation (CV) analysis reveals that certain trade flows were particularly volatile. Imports from China (CV=0.73) and Saudi Arabia (CV=0.99) showed high instability. On the export side, flows to the United States (CV=0.44) and Ukraine (CV=0.58) were also volatile.

3.3.3 Notable price shocks were detected

The analysis identified several significant price shocks. The most severe was a 35.2% price shift in exports to the United States centered on 2022, with a high abnormality score of 22.3. A major import price shock of +59.9% from Türkiye occurred in 2021. These events correspond with the post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and energy cost surges that impacted the global chemical industry. Detailed volatility metrics are available for further investigation.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's market for amino-resins, phenolic resins, and polyurethanes demonstrated resilience, maintaining a robust trade surplus despite a structural shift towards much faster import growth. This import surge was driven by a dramatic reorientation towards suppliers in Asia, most notably China, and was facilitated by competitive pricing. Exports, meanwhile, grew steadily and diversified, with the United States becoming the primary destination. The market weathered periods of high volatility and specific price shocks, particularly during the 2021-2022 global supply crisis. In essence, the EU solidified its role as a major net exporter while simultaneously integrating more deeply with global, particularly Asian, supply chains for these critical chemical intermediates.