Market evolution: Polyurethanes (CN 390950) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in polyurethanes in primary forms (Customs Code 390950) from 2015 to 2025. The period was characterized by robust growth in trade value, which was driven more by significant price inflation than by volume expansion. The EU maintained a strong, yet gradually increasing, net exporter position. Major geopolitical and economic events, most notably the 2022 energy crisis and the war in Ukraine, created visible shocks in trade flows and prices. The analysis is based on the provided trade data, which covers the complete calendar years within the specified window.

1. Sustained Value Growth Underpinned by Major Price Inflation

The EU's trade in polyurethanes expanded substantially over the decade, but the narrative diverges sharply between value and volume, highlighting the role of price dynamics.

1.1 EU Exports Grew in Value but Stagnated in Volume

EU exports to non-EU countries grew modestly in value from €1.39 billion in 2015 to €1.41 billion in 2025, an increase of 1.1%. However, this headline figure masks a divergent trend: export volumes actually decreased by 14.4% over the same period. The entire value growth was therefore driven by a dramatic 18.1% increase in unit export prices. The peak export value was reached in 2021 at €1.96 billion, which was followed by a correction. The General Overview provides a summary of these aggregate trends.

1.2 Import Growth Was More Broad-Based

EU imports showed stronger growth, with value rising by 25.1% and quantity by 19.4% between 2015 and 2025. This indicates increasing demand for foreign-supplied polyurethanes. Like exports, import prices also increased, by 4.8% over the period. The peak import value of €399 million was recorded in 2022.

1.3 A Persistent and Widening Trade Surplus

The EU consistently maintained a trade surplus throughout the period, confirming its role as a net exporter. This surplus, while remaining substantial, narrowed slightly from €1.13 billion in 2015 to €1.08 billion in 2025, a decrease of 4.5%. The surplus peaked at €1.57 billion in 2021. The trend reflects the faster growth rate of imports compared to exports. More details on this balance are available in the General Overview.

Table 1: Summary of EU Trade Performance (2015 vs. 2025)

2. Shifting Geopolitical Patterns in Trade Partnerships

The geographic distribution of EU polyurethanes trade underwent significant restructuring, marked by the emergence of new Asian suppliers and a near-total collapse of exports to Russia.

2.1 A Dramatic Reorientation Away from Russia

The most striking shift was the decimation of EU exports to Russia. From a value of €68 million in 2015, exports fell to just €93,289 in 2025—a decline of 99.9%. This collapse occurred almost entirely in 2022, coinciding with the imposition of sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. This represented a major loss of a traditional market for EU producers, as detailed in the top partners by value data.

2.2 China's Evolving Role: From Key Export Market to Significant Import Source

China's position in the EU's trade profile changed substantially. On the export side, China remained a vital market, with exports rising from €137 million in 2015 to €187 million in 2025 (+36.2%). However, this was eclipsed by a far more dramatic surge in imports from China, which skyrocketed from €13 million to €47 million—a staggering 257.8% increase. This indicates that China is becoming an increasingly important supplier of polyurethanes to the EU, reducing the EU's bilateral trade surplus with the country.

2.3 Diversification of Export Destinations and Import Sources

In response to the loss of the Russian market, EU exporters increased shipments to other partners, notably the United States (+24.9%) and India (+19.0%). The United Kingdom, while still a top destination, saw a significant decline of 44.1%, likely impacted by post-Brexit trade barriers. On the import side, suppliers like Türkiye (+405.0%) and India (+50.1%) grew their market share in the EU, indicating a broader diversification of import sources away from traditional partners like the United Kingdom. These dynamics contributed to a declining Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for both imports and exports, signaling a reduction in trade concentration.

Table 2: Evolution of Key Bilateral Relationships (Value in € million)

3. Structural Shifts, Price Shocks, and Changing Vulnerabilities

Beyond partner shifts, the period was defined by underlying structural changes in EU production, a major price shock in 2022, and an evolving vulnerability profile.

3.1 Domestic Production Contraction and Increased Openness

EU domestic production of polyurethanes contracted significantly over the period. Measured in kilograms, production volumes fell by 47.7%, while production value declined by 23.9%. This contraction in the domestic base occurred alongside a doubling of the EU's trade intensity (from 16.3% to 33.0%) and export propensity. This suggests the EU industry is becoming more integrated into global value chains, exporting a larger share of its output and relying more on imports to meet domestic demand.

3.2 The 2022 Price Shock: A Watershed Moment

The year 2022 stands out as a period of acute disruption. Data on supply shocks identifies a major price shock in imports from the United States, where prices surged by 48.4%. This was likely a consequence of the global energy crisis, as polyurethane production is energy-intensive. This shock propagated through the market: the average EU export price jumped to its peak of €4,340 per tonne, and the import price from all partners reached €5,186 per tonne. This price spike drove export values to their all-time high in 2021/2022, despite no growth in volumes, before a correction began in 2023.

3.3 Specialisation and Intra-EU Structural Differences

The EU's polyurethane industry is concentrated in a few member states. In 2025, Germany held the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) among major producers, followed by Italy and Spain. Conversely, newer EU members in Eastern Europe show very low specialisation and act primarily as importers. The significant decline in Ireland's exports (-96.5%) suggests a major restructuring of production or trade routes within the multinational pharmaceutical/medical device sector, which uses specialty polyurethanes like CN 39095010.

Conclusion

The EU polyurethanes market between 2015 and 2025 demonstrated resilience and adaptation in the face of major shocks. While the EU remained a net exporter, its trade surplus narrowed as import growth outpaced that of exports. The most profound changes were geopolitical: the obliteration of trade with Russia and China's rapid ascent as a supplier fundamentally reshaped trade flows. Concurrently, a severe contraction in domestic production points to an industry that is increasingly reliant on global trade. The 2022 energy crisis served as a stress test, causing a dramatic price spike that temporarily inflated trade values but did not reverse underlying trends. Moving forward, the EU's polyurethane sector faces a dual challenge: navigating a more fragmented global trade environment while managing increased import dependency stemming from its own diminished production capacity.