Market evolution: Polyurethanes (CN 39095090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of polyurethanes in primary forms (CN 39095090) for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The product, classified under plastics and articles thereof, encompasses a broad range of polyurethane formulations used across industries including construction, automotive, footwear, and electronics. The EU is one of the world's leading producers and exporters of polyurethanes, with Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands serving as major hubs within the bloc.

Over the analysed decade, the EU polyurethane market experienced significant structural transformation. While export volumes declined, unit prices rose sharply, maintaining aggregate value. Meanwhile, import patterns shifted dramatically, with emerging economies — particularly China and Türkiye — gaining market share. The EU's position as a net exporter was reinforced, and major geopolitical and economic shocks, notably around 2022, left visible marks on trade flows. The following three sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

1. Rising Prices Offset Falling Volumes in a Value-Resilient Market

The most striking macro-level finding is the divergence between trade volumes and trade values. Between 2015 and 2025, EU export quantities declined by 11.6%, from 427,623 tonnes to 377,818 tonnes, yet export values still managed a modest increase of 4.1%, rising from €1.32 billion to €1.38 billion. This is explained entirely by a steep 17.8% rise in average export prices, from €3,090/t to €3,641/t. The peak export value of €1.93 billion was reached in an intermediate year, suggesting a price-and-volume boom that subsequently moderated.

1.1 A production contraction underpins the volume decline

The decline in export volumes is consistent with a significant contraction in EU domestic production. Production quantity fell by 47.7% — from 3.83 billion kg to 2.0 billion kg — and production value dropped by 23.9%, from €7.09 billion to €5.4 billion. This is a substantial contraction that points to structural shifts within the EU chemical industry, potentially including capacity rationalisation, the impact of rising energy costs (particularly after 2021), and competition from Asian producers. The fact that production value declined less than production quantity (-23.9% vs. -47.7%) suggests that EU producers increasingly focused on higher-value specialty formulations rather than commodity-grade polyurethanes.

1.2 Import prices rose in tandem, though from a higher baseline

On the import side, prices also climbed, though at a more moderate pace. Average import unit values rose by 8.4%, from €3,788/t to €4,107/t, while volumes grew by 12.2% (from 65,509 t to 73,471 t). Total import value therefore increased by 21.6%, reaching €302 million. Notably, imports are consistently priced higher than exports, with the import premium averaging around €400–700/t — a pattern that suggests the EU imports specialised or niche-grade polyurethanes while exporting larger volumes of more standardised products.

1.3 The 2022 price shock marked a turning point

The data reveals significant price shocks concentrated around 2022. EU imports from the United States experienced a 50.3% price shift in that year — the largest single shock detected — likely reflecting the combined effects of post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, the energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and tight isocyanate markets. Additional price shocks were detected in EU exports to Singapore (+28.0%) and Ukraine (+22.4%) in the same period. These anomalies suggest that 2022 represented a stress point for the entire polyurethane value chain, with ripple effects across both import and export markets.

2. A Dramatic Geographic Reorientation of Trade Partners

The period 2015–2025 saw a fundamental reshaping of the EU's polyurethane trade geography. Traditional partners lost ground, while emerging economies — especially China and Türkiye — gained rapidly on both the import and export sides. Meanwhile, Russia was almost entirely eliminated from the EU's export map following geopolitical events.

2.1 The rise of China and Türkiye as both suppliers and customers

China's role in EU polyurethane trade expanded dramatically. On the import side, EU purchases from China surged by 196.8%, rising from €12.9 million to €38.1 million. This is consistent with China's massive capacity additions in MDI and polyol production over the past decade, making it a competitive supplier of downstream polyurethanes. Türkiye showed an even more dramatic shift, with imports increasing by 378.6%, from €4.0 million to €19.2 million — reflecting Türkiye's growing role as a manufacturing hub bridging Europe and Asia.

On the export side, China remained the EU's largest non-EU export destination, with shipments rising by 34.4% to €182 million. However, EU exports to Türkiye actually declined by 12.3% (from €122 million to €107 million), suggesting that Türkiye's own domestic production increasingly substitutes for EU-origin polyurethanes — a classic pattern of import-substitution industrialisation.

2.2 The collapse of exports to Russia

Perhaps the most dramatic geographic shift was the near-total cessation of EU exports to Russia. Starting from €66 million in 2015, exports to Russia fell to just €93,289 in 2025 — a decline of 99.9%. This is clearly linked to the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The high volatility coefficient (0.47) for the Russia trade route further confirms the abrupt and disruptive nature of this decoupling.

2.3 Traditional European and transatlantic partners show divergent trends

The United Kingdom, the EU's second-largest export destination in 2015, saw its import share from the EU shrink by 36.3%, from €187 million to €119 million. This decline may partly reflect post-Brexit trade friction, including customs procedures, regulatory divergence, and currency dynamics. By contrast, the United States — another major transatlantic partner — saw EU export values increase by 24.9% to €169 million, and India grew by 20.7% to €110 million.

2.4 Within the EU, Germany anchors the market while Belgium and the Netherlands gain share

Among EU Member States, Germany remained the dominant exporter throughout the period, accounting for €551 million in exports in 2025 (40.2% of total EU production share, per specialisation data). However, Italy's export value declined by 12.8%, and Ireland saw a staggering 97% collapse. Meanwhile, Belgium (+52.6%) and Spain (+19.7%) gained ground. On the import side, Belgium (+90.6%) and France (+71.7%) showed the largest increases, indicating growing demand within these economies.

2.5 Import concentration declined as sourcing diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports fell by 21.7%, from approximately 2,100 to 1,644, indicating a meaningful diversification of import sources. The EU is no longer as reliant on a small number of traditional suppliers; new entrants from Asia and the Middle East have broadened the supply base. Export-side concentration remained comparatively low throughout (HHI around 600–700), reflecting the inherently diversified nature of EU polyurethane export destinations.

3. Strengthening Net Export Position Amid Growing Trade Openness

Despite declining production volumes, the EU reinforced its role as a major net exporter of polyurethanes over the decade. Several indicators point toward a market that became more export-oriented, more globally integrated, and structurally more concentrated in a handful of specialised Member States.

3.1 The EU's net exporter position was reinforced

The EU maintained a persistent and large trade surplus throughout the period, starting at €1.07 billion and ending at €1.07 billion, with a peak of €1.56 billion in an intermediate year. The net import reliance metric — which is negative when a region is a net exporter — deepened from -11.8% to -27.8%, meaning the EU's export surplus as a share of apparent consumption roughly doubled. At its most negative (-36.2% in an intermediate year), this figure indicates that the EU was exporting over a third more polyurethane than it was consuming domestically.

3.2 Trade intensity and export propensity both doubled

Two measures of global integration showed remarkable increases. Trade intensity — the combined share of imports and exports relative to production — rose from 16.3% to 33.0%, a 102.4% increase. Export propensity — exports as a share of production — climbed from 13.7% to 28.5% (+108.2%). This doubling occurred against a backdrop of falling domestic production, implying that even as the EU produced less polyurethane in absolute terms, a much larger share of that output was directed to foreign markets. The EU polyurethane industry is thus becoming more export-specialised even as it shrinks in overall scale.

3.3 A core of specialised producers drives the market

Specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals a clear hierarchy. Germany (RSCA 0.31), Italy (RSCA 0.25), and Spain (RSCA 0.21) are the most specialised large economies, each showing strong revealed comparative advantage. Greece leads in relative terms (RSCA 0.38) but from a very small production base. At the other end, Ireland, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Slovakia show strongly negative RSCA values, indicating that they are net importers with minimal domestic production. This polarisation has likely intensified over the decade, as smaller EU economies lacked the scale and technological capabilities to compete in an increasingly cost-competitive global market.

3.4 Import-side volatility varied sharply by partner

The coefficient of variation of import values differed widely across trading partners. Imports from Israel (CV 1.52), Australia (CV 0.82), and Canada (CV 0.74) were the most volatile, reflecting small, episodic trade flows. Among major partners, Türkiye (CV 0.43) and China (CV 0.39) showed relatively high volatility — consistent with their rapid but uneven growth trajectories. Traditional partners like Switzerland (CV 0.07) and the United States (CV 0.14) provided more stable import flows. This pattern highlights a trade-off for EU buyers: diversifying toward emerging suppliers brings cost advantages but also greater year-to-year unpredictability.

Conclusion

The EU polyurethane market (CN 39095090) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. While aggregate export values remained broadly stable (+4.1%), this masks a deeper structural story: production volumes fell by nearly half, unit prices rose significantly, and the geographic orientation of trade shifted dramatically. China and Türkiye emerged as key partners on both sides of the ledger, while Russia was almost entirely severed from EU trade flows following the 2022 sanctions. The EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with net import reliance deepening from -11.8% to -27.8%, and trade intensity roughly doubling.

The 2022 price shocks — particularly the 50.3% surge in import prices from the United States — underscore the sector's vulnerability to macroeconomic and geopolitical disruptions. At the same time, declining import concentration (HHI down 21.7%) and growing trade openness suggest that the EU polyurethane industry is adapting to a more fragmented and competitive global landscape, increasingly relying on exports to sustain output value even as domestic capacity contracts. The future trajectory will likely depend on energy costs, regulatory developments (including sustainability mandates), and the continued evolution of Asian production capacity.