Market evolution: Photographic and cinematographic goods (CN 37) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in photographic and cinematographic goods (Combined Nomenclature heading 37) over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses a wide range of goods, from sensitised photographic film and paper (3701–3703) to exposed and developed cinematographic film (3706), as well as chemical preparations for photographic uses (3707). Over the decade, the EU's position in this market has undergone a fundamental transformation: the bloc shifted from being a net exporter with a trade surplus of €496 million in 2015 to a net importer with a deficit of approximately €99 million in 2025. This structural reversal, combined with a sharp decline in EU production volumes, reflects the broader digitalisation of imaging industries and a reconfiguration of global supply chains. The following sections explore the key dynamics underlying this shift.
1. From surplus to deficit: the EU's collapsing trade balance in photographic goods
The trade balance reversed decisively after 2019
The EU's trade balance in CN 37 goods deteriorated steadily over the decade. In 2015, exports stood at €1.56 billion against imports of €1.06 billion, yielding a healthy surplus of nearly €496 million. By 2025, exports had declined to €1.38 billion while imports climbed to €1.48 billion, resulting in a deficit of €99 million. This represents a cumulative swing of roughly €595 million in the balance of trade.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | Change 2015–2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports (value, €bn) | 1.56 | 1.33 | 1.38 | −11.1% |
| Imports (value, €bn) | 1.06 | 0.88 | 1.48 | +39.8% |
| Trade balance (€M) | +496 | +448 | −99 | −120.0% |
Source: General Overview
Export volumes fell far faster than export values, signalling a shift toward higher-value but lower-volume shipments
Export quantities dropped by 39.4% over the period — from 142,059 tonnes in 2015 to just 86,060 tonnes in 2025. Yet export values declined by only 11.1%, meaning that the average unit price of EU exports rose by 46.7% (from €10,961 to €16,084 per tonne). This pattern is consistent with a market in which traditional, high-volume, low-margin photographic consumables are being displaced by niche or specialty products commanding higher prices per unit weight — such as advanced film stocks or specialised chemical preparations.
Import growth was driven by both volume and the entry of new supply sources
Imports told a different story: volumes grew by 45.6% (from 54,443 to 79,259 tonnes) while values rose by 39.8%. Import prices actually edged down by 4.0%, suggesting that the EU was sourcing from increasingly cost-competitive suppliers. The net import reliance metric shifted from −4.0% in 2015 to −15.6% in 2025, confirming the EU's growing structural dependence on external supply.
2. A sector in structural decline: collapsing EU production and shifting product mix
EU production of photographic goods contracted by roughly 80% in volume
The most dramatic signal in the data is the collapse of EU domestic production. Between the first and last available production periods, quantity fell by 79.8% (from 1.85 billion kg to 374 million kg) and value fell by 64.7% (from €3.94 billion to €1.39 billion). This reflects the well-documented global decline of traditional photographic film and paper manufacturing, as digital imaging technologies rendered analogue processes commercially marginal outside niche applications such as cinema, art photography, and archival use.
The product-level data reveals divergent trajectories across sub-sectors
Looking at import and export flows by product code reveals that the decline was not uniform. The following table summarises the evolution of key sub-sectors:
| Product | Description | Export value 2015 (€M) | Export value 2025 (€M) | Import value 2015 (€M) | Import value 2025 (€M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3701 | Flat film/plates, unexposed | 651 | 593 | 236 | 450 |
| 3702 | Roll film, unexposed | 269 | 118 | 37 | 63 |
| 3703 | Photographic paper | 106 | 112 | 40 | 6 |
| 3705 | Exposed & developed film | 83 | 279 | 110 | 562 |
| 3707 | Chemical preparations | 436 | 274 | 573 | 399 |
Source: Product segment breakdown
Category 3705 (exposed and developed film) emerged as the dominant import growth driver
The most striking shift occurred in sub-sector 3705 (photographic plates and film, exposed and developed). Import values surged from €110 million in 2015 to €562 million in 2025 — a more than fivefold increase. This category's share of total CN 37 imports rose from roughly 10% to nearly 38%. Given the extremely high unit prices observed (rising from €277,499/t to €4.18 million/t), this likely reflects growing EU imports of specialist developed film stock — potentially for the motion picture industry, scientific imaging, or archival purposes — where the EU lacks sufficient domestic capacity.
Conversely, category 3703 (photographic paper) saw imports collapse from €40 million to just €6 million, consistent with the near-total displacement of analogue photographic paper by digital printing technologies.
Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands remain the EU's specialised producers, but even they are retrenching
In 2025, Belgium (RSCA: 0.355), the Netherlands (RSCA: 0.314), and Germany (RSCA: 0.184) displayed the highest revealed comparative advantage in CN 37 exports among EU member states. However, all three saw declining export volumes over the period — Belgium's exports fell by 29.4%, the Netherlands' by 37.3%, and Germany's by 4.3%. Meanwhile, Ireland emerged as a significant importer, with import values surging by 283.9% (from €124 million to €475 million), potentially reflecting the presence of film processing or distribution operations on Irish soil.
3. Geopolitical shocks and rising supplier concentration reshape trade flows
China's import share grew by 550%, while the UK's collapsed after Brexit
The most dramatic reconfiguration of the EU's import sourcing occurred with China and the United Kingdom. EU imports from China surged from €40 million in 2015 to €261 million in 2025 — a 549.8% increase — making China one of the top three suppliers by value. In contrast, imports from the United Kingdom fell from €386 million to €46 million (−88.2%), a decline almost certainly linked to the UK's departure from the EU single market and customs union, which introduced new trade frictions from January 2021 onward.
| Partner | Import value 2015 (€M) | Import value 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 40 | 261 | +549.8% |
| United States | 305 | 743 | +144.1% |
| Japan | 279 | 401 | +43.5% |
| United Kingdom | 386 | 46 | −88.2% |
Source: Top partners data
The United States became the EU's dominant import source, driven by developed film flows
The United States saw EU imports grow by 144.1%, rising from €305 million to €743 million, making it by far the largest single source of photographic and cinematographic goods for the EU. This likely reflects Hollywood's role in driving demand for motion-picture post-production services and the associated trade in developed film and related materials.
Export destinations were reshaped by geopolitical events
On the export side, EU shipments to Russia fell by 71.5% (from €76 million to €22 million), consistent with the progressive tightening of EU sanctions following 2022. Exports to the United Kingdom also declined sharply (−61.7%), mirroring the import-side Brexit effect. Meanwhile, exports to China grew by 84.2% and those to Japan by 57.3%, suggesting that the EU found alternative markets in East Asia for its remaining export capacity.
Import concentration rose significantly, increasing supply-chain vulnerability
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value increased by 24.9% over the period, from 2,854 to 3,565. The volume-based HHI more than doubled, rising by 116%. This growing concentration reflects the increasing dominance of a small number of suppliers — principally the United States, Japan, and China — and raises potential concerns about supply-chain resilience, particularly for specialist products with few alternative sources.
Price shocks were concentrated in Japanese and British import flows
Volatility analysis reveals that the most significant price shocks occurred in imports from Japan (a +38.4% price shift in 2017, with an abnormality score of 20.0 and a 53.3% value share) and the United Kingdom (a +73.2% price shift also in 2017, abnormality 12.5). These 2017 anomalies may reflect currency movements (the yen and pound both experienced significant volatility in the wake of the Brexit referendum) or supply-side disruptions. Japan's import flows remained relatively stable overall (CV: 0.11), while the UK's showed much higher volatility (CV: 0.82), consistent with the structural disruption caused by Brexit.
Conclusion
The EU's trade in photographic and cinematographic goods (CN 37) underwent a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The sector's trajectory is defined by three concurrent forces: the ongoing digitalisation of imaging, which hollowed out traditional production (−80% in volume); the erosion of the EU's net exporter status, with the trade balance swinging from a €496 million surplus to a €99 million deficit; and a geopolitical reshuffling of supply chains, most notably the collapse of UK-EU trade flows post-Brexit and the rapid growth of Chinese and American suppliers. While the EU retains specialised production capacity in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands, the sector is increasingly reliant on imports for higher-value product categories such as exposed and developed film (3705). Rising import concentration and volatility in key supplier relationships suggest that the EU's autonomy in this niche but strategically relevant sector — tied as it is to cultural industries, scientific research, and archival preservation — warrants continued monitoring.