Market evolution: Exposed cinematographic film (CN 3706) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in exposed and developed cinematographic film (CN 3706) between 2015 and 2025. The product, which encompasses film of widths ≥35 mm (370610) and <35 mm (370690), has been subject to profound structural changes over this period — driven by the digitalisation of cinema, shifting production geographies, and the post-Brexit reconfiguration of trade with the United Kingdom. The data reveals a market that has shrunk dramatically in volume terms while experiencing significant price escalation, unevenly across sub-products and partners. Overall, the EU has moved from being a net importer to a net exporter of this product category, reflecting a fundamental reorientation of the global celluloid film supply chain.

I. A market in structural decline: collapsing volumes amid rising unit values

The EU trade balance has reversed from deficit to surplus

The most striking macro-level finding is the transformation of the EU's trade position. In 2015, the EU recorded a trade deficit of €419,999 in exposed cinematographic film. By 2025, this had turned into a surplus of €272,618 — a swing of over €690,000. This reversal was driven not by export strength, but by the far steeper contraction of imports.

Import volumes have collapsed far more sharply than export volumes

The decline in physical trade volumes has been dramatic, but asymmetric. EU imports of CN 3706 fell from 271.3 tonnes in 2015 to just 42.6 tonnes in 2025 — a decline of 84.3%. Exports, by contrast, rose from 28.6 to 51.5 tonnes (+79.7%). The supplementary unit data (gross tonnage, GT) tells a parallel story: import supplementary quantities fell 40.5%, while export supplementary quantities fell 66.6%, suggesting that shipments have become both lighter in mass and fewer in unit count over time.

Unit values have surged, particularly for imports

While volumes have fallen, unit values have moved sharply in the opposite direction — a pattern consistent with a niche product whose remaining demand is increasingly specialised and price-inelastic.

Import prices nearly quadrupled over the decade, reflecting both the exit of lower-value bulk shipments from the market and the growing dominance of specialty film stocks. The supplementary unit price for exports (EUR per GT) rose even more dramatically, from €0.25 to €1.22 (+393.4%), indicating that the remaining exported film is substantially more valuable per unit of supplementary measure.

The two sub-products diverge in their trajectories

The ≥35 mm segment (370610) has historically dominated both trade flows, but the two sub-products have evolved very differently:

• 370610 (≥35 mm): Import quantity fell from 268.7t (2015) to 38.5t (2025), while export quantity fluctuated considerably, ranging from a low of 9.8t (2020) to a high of 65.5t (2021).
• 370690 (<35 mm): Import quantity remained relatively stable (2.6t to 4.1t), while export quantity surged from 4.1t to 34.7t in 2025 — suggesting the emergence of a new niche export market in narrower-gauge film.

The price data for the two sub-products is highly volatile year-on-year, consistent with small batch sizes and order-driven pricing, but the <35 mm segment (370690) has generally commanded higher per-tonne prices, reaching €59,459/t for imports in 2025.

II. The post-Brexit reorientation of the United Kingdom partnership

The UK has shifted from EU supplier to EU customer

Perhaps the most consequential structural change visible in the data is the reconfiguration of the EU–UK trade relationship in this product category. In 2015, the UK was the EU's second-largest import source (€262,870), while being a negligible export destination (€8,119). By 2025, this had nearly inverted:

The UK's share of EU imports has fallen substantially, while it has become the second-largest export destination for EU-origin exposed film, behind only the United States. This dramatic reversal is consistent with the broader post-Brexit effect: the UK's departure from the EU customs union reclassified UK–EU film trade as extra-EU commerce, while simultaneously creating new customs frictions that may have redirected sourcing patterns.

UK-linked trade shows the highest price volatility

The volatility analysis reveals that UK-related flows exhibit exceptionally high coefficients of variation (CV). For imports from the UK, the CV stands at 2.41 — the highest among all partners. For exports to the UK, it is 1.30.

The shock detection system has flagged three significant events:

The 2019 UK-related price shocks — particularly the +4,170% price shift for exports — are extreme and may reflect a combination of small-sample effects, the reclassification of UK trade flows as the UK left the EU single market transition period, and/or the timing of specific high-value archival or film-industry transactions. The US import price shock of 2018 (−46.1%) may reflect the loss of a major supply contract or a shift in US film lab processing costs.

The remaining supplier base has become more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 2,377 in 2015 to 3,399 in 2025 (+43.0%), indicating a meaningful increase in supplier concentration. The United States has consolidated its position as the EU's dominant import source (€256,580 in 2025, down only 24.1% from €338,235 in 2015), while several smaller suppliers have exited or dramatically reduced their presence:

Hong Kong and South Korea have virtually disappeared as suppliers, consistent with the decline of commercial film printing and processing in East Asia. Meanwhile, China's imports to the EU grew from €2,562 to €6,409 (+150.2%), though from a very low base.

On the export side, the United Arab Emirates emerged as a notable new destination (€164 in 2015 → €2,494 in 2025, +1,420.7%), suggesting growing demand from the Middle East's film archival or emerging cinema sectors.

III. Within-EU specialisation and the geography of celluloid expertise

Czechia stands out as the EU's most specialised producer

The specialisation analysis reveals a striking finding: among EU member states, Czechia is by far the most specialised exporter of exposed cinematographic film, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.90 and an RCA of 19.97 — orders of magnitude above all other members. Czechia accounted for 96.0% of EU production exports and 4.8% of total EU export value in this category. This is consistent with the Czech Republic's well-known role as a hub for film production and post-production services, supported by competitive labour costs, historic studio infrastructure (Barrandov Studios), and favourable tax incentives for film production.

Large economies are net importers with negligible specialisation

At the other end of the spectrum, major EU economies — the Netherlands (RSCA −0.994), France (−0.979), and Poland (−0.981) — show very negative specialisation scores, indicating that their exposed film trade is overwhelmingly import-oriented relative to their overall trade profiles. This is consistent with these countries hosting large film-viewing markets and archives but not specialised production capacity for exposed celluloid.

The main EU exporters have diverged in performance

Among the top EU member-state exporters, trajectories have varied substantially:

France has more than doubled its exports, becoming the EU's largest exporter by value. Romania's extraordinary growth (+850%) suggests the emergence of new film processing or archival export activity, possibly linked to the country's growing role as a film production destination. Ireland's collapse (−80.4%) is notable — it went from being the EU's largest exporter to fourth place, likely reflecting the wind-down of specific large-scale film operations or tax-driven transactions that inflated earlier figures.

On the import side, Greece saw the most dramatic decline (−99.7%), while Austria (−90.1%) also experienced a near-total collapse in imports, dropping from €130,000 to €12,829. France remained the EU's largest importer (€253,617 in 2025), though even this represented a 20.1% decline from 2015.

Export volume concentration has increased even as value concentration held steady

The HHI for exports by volume rose from 2,267 to 4,349 (+91.8%), while the value-based HHI remained relatively stable (2,014 → 2,176, +8.0%). This divergence suggests that while the monetary value of exports has become somewhat more diversified, the physical volume has become more concentrated in fewer, presumably larger, shipment destinations — likely the UK and US markets where high-value archival or theatrical film stock is sent.

Conclusion

The EU trade in exposed cinematographic film (CN 3706) over 2015–2025 tells the story of a niche product in the twilight of its mainstream commercial life. Total import volumes have fallen by over 84%, consistent with the near-complete transition of global cinema to digital distribution and projection. What remains is a specialised, high-value market driven by archival preservation, art-house and independent filmmaking, and select institutional demand.

The most transformative event of the period was Brexit, which fundamentally restructured the EU–UK film trade relationship — converting the UK from the EU's second-largest import source into its second-largest export destination. This coincided with extreme price volatility and supply concentration, as the remaining market consolidated around fewer suppliers (principally the United States) and fewer exporters (principally France). Within the EU, Czechia's pronounced specialisation confirms its unique position in the global celluloid ecosystem, while the emergence of Romania as a fast-growing exporter hints at new centres of expertise developing.

The data suggests that the exposed cinematographic film market, while small in absolute terms, is unlikely to disappear entirely. Its rising unit values indicate that the remaining demand is increasingly specialised and willing to pay premium prices — a pattern typical of niche products that survive technological disruption by serving a devoted, if diminished, community of users.