Market evolution: Unexposed photographic plates and film (CN 3701) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Customs code 3701 covers photographic plates and film in the flat, sensitised and unexposed — a product group spanning X-ray film, instant print film (e.g. Fujifilm Instax), large-format photographic film, and specialist colour and monochrome emulsions. The period 2015–2025 covers a decade during which digitalisation continued to erode traditional film demand in both medical imaging and consumer photography, while a counter-trend — the analogue photography revival and the popularity of instant cameras — created pockets of growth. This report examines how these structural forces reshaped EU trade with non-EU countries. Three dynamics stand out: (1) the EU's once-comfortable trade surplus shrank by two-thirds as imports surged and exports stagnated; (2) China emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant import supplier, concentrating the EU's sourcing base; and (3) EU domestic production collapsed in both volume and value, even as niche segments — particularly instant print film — bucked the broader downward trend.

1. The Eroding Trade Surplus: A Decade of Import Surge and Export Retreat

1.1 The macro divergence: imports nearly double while exports decline

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 3701 over the past decade is the progressive narrowing of the trade balance. In 2015, the EU recorded a trade surplus of €414.1 million; by 2025, this had fallen to €143.0 million — a contraction of 65.5%. The surplus briefly bottomed out at €121.7 million before its modest 2025 recovery.

Source: General Overview

Import values nearly doubled (+90.2%), while export values declined by 8.9%. Import volumes grew even faster — nearly quadrupling (+268.3%) from 17,674 tonnes to 65,095 tonnes — while export volumes shrank by a quarter to 40,161 tonnes. Crucially, by 2024–2025 the EU was importing substantially more tonnage than it exported, a complete reversal of the pattern at the start of the period. Export output bottomed at 40,161 tonnes in 2025 (the series minimum), having peaked at 66,701 tonnes in 2019, while import volumes hit their trough at 15,518 tonnes around 2016 before surging to a peak of 67,837 tonnes.

1.2 Price divergence signals a structural upmarket repositioning

Behind these volume shifts lies a dramatic price divergence. EU export prices rose from €11,992 per tonne in 2015 to €14,754 per tonne in 2025 (+23.0%), their series maximum — reflecting a shift toward higher-value, lower-volume specialty products. Meanwhile, import prices collapsed from €13,373 per tonne to €6,907 per tonne (−48.4%), their series minimum, indicating that the surge in import volumes was driven primarily by lower-priced commodity-grade film sourced from Asia.

The divergence accelerated from 2018–2019 onward: export prices fell to a minimum of around €10,165/t before climbing steadily to their 2025 peak, while import prices declined from a maximum of €13,601/t to their 2025 nadir. The EU has, in effect, moved upmarket in its export profile while simultaneously becoming dependent on low-cost imports for volume-intensive applications.

2. Geographic Reconfiguration: The Rise of China and Shifting Trade Partners

2.1 China becomes the EU's dominant import source

The most dramatic partner-level development is China's transformation from a marginal supplier to the EU's overwhelmingly largest import origin. EU imports from China surged from €15.5 million in 2015 to €237.8 million in 2025 — an increase of 1,431.8% — lifting China's share of total EU imports from under 7% to over half. This explosive growth was volatile: China's coefficient of variation (CV) in import value stands at 0.74, the highest among the major import partners.

Traditional partners have by contrast lost ground or stagnated:

Source: Top partners by value

Japan remained a significant supplier (+53.0%), but its growth is modest beside China's expansion. The United Kingdom's import share collapsed by 73.6% — likely reflecting both the effects of Brexit on trade flows and the structural decline of the sector.

On the export side, the geographic picture shifted substantially:

The United States overtook the United Kingdom to become the EU's top export destination (up 88.3% to €101.5 million), while the UK — formerly the leading market — saw a 46.7% decline. Exports to Russia fell by 54.6%, reflecting the impact of international sanctions, while shipments to Türkiye held virtually flat.

2.2 EU member states: port-country redistribution and production concentration

Within the EU, import geography underwent a notable redistribution. The Netherlands surged from €25.2 million to €159.9 million (+534.9%), becoming the EU's largest importer — a pattern consistent with its role as a gateway port for goods destined for wider European distribution. Belgium similarly grew from €20.9 million to €72.3 million (+246.5%), and Spain from €4.4 million to €30.2 million (+588.4%). Poland saw the most dramatic growth: from €1.4 million to €14.6 million (+923.7%). Germany, traditionally the largest EU importer, bucked the trend with a decline from €126.7 million to €92.8 million (−26.7%), as did France (−37.4%).

For exports, Germany consolidated its dominance (€250.9M → €255.8M, +2.0%), accounting for 43% of all EU exports by 2025. Belgium held second place despite a 17.9% decline (€258.4M → €212.1M). The Netherlands' exports halved (€95.4M → €47.7M, −50.0%), and Lithuania's nearly disappeared (€8.4M → €0.2M, −97.1%).

2.3 Rising import concentration and supply-side price shocks

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose by 33.1% in value terms (from 2,913 to 3,876) and by a dramatic 241.5% in volume terms (from 2,159 to 7,374), reflecting China's growing dominance. By contrast, export concentration remained lower and grew more slowly (HHI value: 563 → 665, +18.1%), indicating a more diversified export base.

Alongside this concentration, several supply-side price shocks were detected:

Source: Supply shocks

The 2022 Chinese import price spike — with an abnormality score of 22.2 — stands out as the most significant event in the series. At the time, Chinese imports accounted for 62.4% of EU import value, meaning the shock had outsized effects on the overall import bill, likely linked to post-COVID supply-chain disruptions.

Volatility analysis further highlights the unevenness of import sources: while traditional partners such as the United States (CV 0.18) and Brazil (CV 0.18) show stable trade patterns, China's volatility (CV 0.74) is elevated, and smaller suppliers such as Hong Kong (CV 1.92), Argentina (CV 2.24), and Viet Nam (CV 1.96) display extreme instability.

3. Structural Transformation: Production Collapse and the Instant-Film Revival

3.1 EU production in sustained freefall

The most dramatic structural shift lies in EU domestic production. Production volume collapsed from 331.2 million m² in 2015 to just 90.0 million m² in 2025 — a decline of 72.8%. Production value fell from €1,803 million to €630 million (−65.1%). This near-three-quarters contraction in output is the defining structural fact of the decade.

The consequences for the EU's trade orientation are profound. Trade intensity — trade flows as a share of production — rose from 63.6% to 97.0% (+52.5%), while export propensity — exports as a share of production — surged from 54.0% to 94.8% (+75.7%). The remaining EU production base is now almost entirely oriented toward export markets, with the salience of export propensity as a vulnerability indicator exceeding that of trade intensity (120.5 vs. 99.5).

The EU remains a net exporter in this product category — net import reliance stood at −23.1% in 2025 — but this figure has improved (become less negative) from −37.8% in 2015. Given the concurrent collapse in production and surge in imports, the EU's net-exporter status appears increasingly fragile.

3.2 Product segments: X-ray film declines, instant print film surges

The product segment breakdown reveals sharply divergent trajectories across the five sub-categories.

Imports by segment:

Source: Product segment breakdown

370130 — Large-format film is the volume driver. Import quantities multiplied nearly fivefold (13,151 t → 61,537 t), and its share of total import value grew from 57.5% to 74.7%. The per-tonne import price more than halved (€10,341/t → €5,456/t), confirming that this segment is dominated by low-cost commodity product — almost certainly sourced from China.

370110 — X-ray film is the clearest casualty of digitalisation. Import volumes halved (3,021 t → 1,210 t) and values nearly halved (€58.7M → €31.5M). Paradoxically, the per-tonne price increased (€19,432/t → €26,060/t), suggesting the remaining X-ray film is niche, high-specification product.

370120 — Instant print film is the standout growth segment. Import volumes quadrupled (214 t → 872 t) and values surged from €5.7 million to €45.8 million (+704%). This aligns with the global revival of instant photography driven by products such as Fujifilm Instax and Polaroid.

Exports by segment:

Export trends mirror the import picture: large-format volumes declined (47,963 t → 36,042 t) and X-ray volumes fell sharply (4,396 t → 1,628 t), while instant print film exports more than tripled (302 t → 1,071 t) and their value grew from €13.3 million to €61.7 million (+364%). Instant print film's share of total EU export value rose from 2.0% to 10.4%, making it the only segment to gain meaningful weight over the period.

The colour (polychrome) segment (370191) has become negligible: imports collapsed from 94 tonnes to just 4 tonnes, and exports from 21 tonnes to 8 tonnes.

3.3 Specialisation patterns within the EU

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals extreme concentration of CN 3701 activity within a handful of EU member states:

Source: Specialisation

These three countries account for 87.2% of EU production in this product category. By contrast, countries such as Bulgaria (RCA 0.002), Portugal (RCA 0.002), and Estonia (RCA 0.003) have virtually no specialisation or production capacity. The sector's industrial footprint in the EU is thus highly concentrated, resting on a narrow base in Western Europe — a configuration that amplifies both efficiency and vulnerability.

Conclusion

The EU trade landscape for unexposed photographic plates and film (CN 3701) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The EU's trade surplus, once a comfortable €414 million, has been cut by two-thirds to €143 million. This erosion is driven by two converging forces: a near-quadrupling of import volumes — overwhelmingly from China, which grew its shipments by over 1,400% — and a simultaneous 26% decline in export volumes. Domestic production collapsed by 73% in volume terms, leaving the remaining EU industry almost entirely export-oriented and concentrated in just three member states.

The price data reveals a clear structural repositioning: export prices have risen 23% (to €14,754/t) while import prices have halved (to €6,907/t), indicating that the EU is retreating from commodity segments and concentrating on higher-value niche products. This is confirmed by segment-level data: X-ray film — once the backbone of the industry — is in steep decline due to digitalisation of medical imaging, while instant print film is the one clear growth story, with export values increasing by 364%.

Growing import concentration — the volume-based HHI surged by 242% — and China's dominant position carry supply-chain vulnerability risks, as illustrated by the 2022 price shock. Looking ahead, the sector's future in the EU will likely hinge on its ability to sustain high-value niche production, particularly in instant photography and specialty film, while managing a growing dependence on a concentrated and volatile import base.