Market evolution: Photographic chemicals (CN 3707) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of EU external trade in photographic chemicals (CN 3707) between 2015 and 2025. The data reveals a market in significant contraction, characterized by sharp declines in traded volumes, major shifts in trade relationships, and rising unit prices. The period is defined by a structural decline in traditional demand, the impact of geopolitical events, and a consolidation of supply sources. The following sections detail these dynamics, drawing exclusively on the provided trade data.

1. The Great Contraction: A Decade of Declining Volumes

The most striking trend over the period is a dramatic and sustained fall in both the volume and value of EU trade in photographic chemicals. This contraction reflects the broader secular decline in demand for traditional photographic film and processing chemicals in the digital age.

1.1 Trade Volumes Halved Over the Decade

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU saw its export quantity fall by 48.3%, from 52,919 tonnes to 27,335 tonnes. Import volumes fell even more steeply, declining by 49.3% from 25,088 tonnes to just 12,719 tonnes. This near-halving of trade volume underscores the reduced scale of the global photographic chemicals market.

Source: General Overview

1.2 The COVID-19 Pandemic Acted as an Accelerant

While the long-term trend was already downward, the global pandemic in 2020 acted as a sharp shock. EU export volume dropped to its lowest point in the series (27,335 tonnes in 2025) following the pandemic year. Import volumes hit their lowest level in 2025, having fallen from a 2019 plateau of 19,421 tonnes to 14,519 tonnes in 2020, never recovering.

1.3 The Sub-Product Narrative: Emulsions vs. Other Preparations

The decline was not uniform across product sub-segments. The base chemical preparations (CN 370790) drove the bulk of the volume loss. However, the highly specialized sensitising emulsions (CN 370710) saw an even more precipitous collapse in trade.

• Imports of emulsions (370710) fell from 881 tonnes in 2015 to just 101 tonnes in 2025, an 88.5% decrease.
• Exports of emulsions (370710) fell from 1,284 tonnes to 799 tonnes (a 37.8% decrease).

This indicates a severe contraction in the high-value, technically sensitive segment of the market, likely driven by the shutdown of major film production facilities.

2. Geopolitical Re-alignment: The Reshaping of Trade Partnerships

The period saw profound changes in the EU's primary trade relationships for photographic chemicals. Traditional partners lost prominence, while others consolidated their positions, often influenced by Brexit and geopolitical sanctions.

2.1 The Brexit Effect: The UK's Dramatic Decline as a Trade Partner

The United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market is the single most apparent geopolitical factor in the data. Prior to Brexit, the UK was a dominant partner.

• The UK was the EU's top import source in 2015 (€242 million) and a top export destination (€146 million).
• By 2025, imports from the UK had collapsed to €6.2 million (-97.4%), and exports to the UK fell to €35 million (-76.0%).

This represents a near-total re-routing of trade flows previously facilitated by the EU's single market.

2.2 Japan's Rising Dominance in EU Imports

As the UK's role diminished, Japan solidified its position as the EU's primary external supplier. Imports from Japan grew by 60.3% in value, from €157 million in 2015 to €251 million in 2025. This growth occurred despite the overall fall in import volumes, indicating Japan's suppliers captured a much larger share of a shrinking market.

2.3 The Sanctions Impact: Collapse in Russian Trade

The data for trade with the Russian Federation shows a stark decline, particularly after 2021, aligning with the imposition of EU sanctions.

• EU exports to Russia fell from €18.4 million in 2015 to €2.2 million in 2025, a drop of 88.1%.
• The volatility measure for this trade relationship is exceptionally high (CV of 2.67), reflecting the sudden shock of sanctions.

2.4 Shifting Export Flows: The Rise of South Korea and Decline of the US

EU export destinations also shifted. While the United States remained a major partner, its value share decreased by 30.2%. Conversely, exports to South Korea grew by 730.0%, from €4.6 million to €38.4 million, making it one of the EU's key export markets by 2025. This suggests a strategic pivot in EU production toward serving specialized industrial customers in Asia.

3. The Price-Volume Paradox: Rising Values Amid Falling Volumes

Against the backdrop of collapsing volumes, unit prices for photographic chemicals followed a clear upward trajectory, leading to a less severe decline in total trade value.

3.1 Unit Prices Rose Consistently

The average export price increased by 21.3% over the decade, from €8,246/tonne in 2015 to €10,004/tonne in 2025. Import prices rose even more sharply, by 37.3%, from €22,839/tonne to €31,360/tonne.

Source: General Overview

3.2 Price Shocks and Volatility in Specific Markets

The price increases were not smooth. The volatility analysis reveals severe price shocks in smaller, more volatile markets. For instance:

• EU exports to Egypt saw a price shock in 2017, with an abnormality score of 401.7 and a price shift of +193.1%.
• EU exports to China experienced a notable price shock in 2023 (abnormality 36.8, shift +56.6%).

These spikes suggest instances where limited supply or specialized demand in niche markets allowed for significant price realization.

3.3 The Import Price Premium and Shifting Dependency

The persistent and widening price gap between imports and exports is significant. In 2025, the EU paid, on average, over three times more per tonne for its imports (€31,360) than it received for its exports (€10,004). This indicates that the EU is increasingly importing high-value, specialty preparations while exporting more commoditized products. This dynamic is also reflected in the rising Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports, which increased by 58.3% to 4,814, signifying a more concentrated and potentially less competitive import market.

Conclusion

The EU's market for photographic chemicals (CN 3707) between 2015 and 2025 underwent a fundamental transformation. It is a story of structural decline, with trade volumes falling by roughly half as digital photography entrenched its dominance. This decline was punctuated by the acute shock of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The period also witnessed a major reorientation of the EU's trade geography. Brexit severed deep ties with the United Kingdom, sanctions effectively halted trade with Russia, and Japan emerged as the dominant and consolidated supplier. In export markets, the EU pivoted toward partners like South Korea.

Paradoxically, these volume declines occurred alongside consistent price increases, likely due to the remaining market focusing on higher-margin, specialized industrial and technical photographic chemicals, and supply-side consolidation. The resulting market is smaller, more concentrated, and characterized by a significant price premium on imported goods, suggesting a niche, high-value production landscape for the remaining EU manufacturers.