Market evolution: Photographic chemicals (CN 370790) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in photographic chemical preparations (customs code 370790) between 2015 and 2025. The product category covers developers, fixers, and other chemical preparations used in photographic processes—excluding sensitising emulsions, varnishes, glues, and precious-metal compounds. It encompasses two subcategories: developers and fixers (CN 37079020), and a residual group of other preparations (CN 37079090).

The decade under review was marked by profound structural change. The overall trade data reveals a market in contraction: EU exports fell by 34.9% in value (from €402 million to €262 million) and 48.6% in volume (from 51,636 tonnes to 26,536 tonnes), while imports declined by 22.4% in value (from €505 million to €391 million) and 47.9% in volume (from 24,208 tonnes to 12,618 tonnes). The EU's trade deficit in this product widened from €102 million to €130 million. Yet behind these headline declines lies a complex story of rising unit prices, dramatic partner reorientation, and increasing supply concentration—each revealing how a niche industrial segment adapts to the long decline of traditional photography and shifting geopolitical realities.

1. A Market Contracting in Volume but Appreciating in Value

The most striking feature of the decade is the simultaneous collapse of traded volumes and the sustained increase in unit prices. This apparent paradox—less product moving at higher prices—reflects the structural transition of a market shrinking in breadth but consolidating around higher-value applications.

Export volumes halved while export prices rose by a quarter

EU export volumes peaked near 52,000 tonnes in 2015–2016 and then entered a near-continuous decline, reaching just 26,536 tonnes by 2025—a loss of 48.6% over the period. In contrast, the average export price rose from €7,793 per tonne in 2015 to €9,863 per tonne in 2025, a gain of 26.6%. This price increase partially offset the volume decline, cushioning the fall in export value to 34.9%.

Import prices climbed even faster, nearly doubling

The import price trajectory was more dramatic. The average import price increased from €20,843 per tonne in 2015 to €31,019 per tonne in 2025, a rise of 48.8%. Import volumes fell by 47.9%—almost exactly mirroring the export volume decline—yet the steeper price appreciation meant that import value fell by only 22.4%. This widening price gap between imports (€31,019/t) and exports (€9,863/t) suggests the EU increasingly imports higher-value or more specialised photographic chemicals while exporting comparatively more commoditised preparations.

The two subcategories followed distinct paths

Looking at the product segment breakdown, the two subcategories reveal divergent trajectories:

Developers and fixers (CN 37079020) dominated both trade flows but saw steep volume erosion. Export volumes fell from 38,219 tonnes (2015) to 17,503 tonnes (2025), while import volumes dropped from 11,853 tonnes to 9,045 tonnes. Importantly, this subcategory's import prices rose from €13,827/t to €23,167/t (+67.5%), reflecting the increasing cost of a shrinking but still essential product line.

Other preparations (CN 37079090) experienced even more dramatic shifts. Import volumes collapsed from 12,354 tonnes to just 3,573 tonnes (−71.1%), but import prices surged from €27,575/t to €50,895/t (+84.6%). On the export side, volumes fell from 13,416 tonnes to 9,033 tonnes, while prices fluctuated widely—dropping sharply in 2017–2018 before recovering.

2. A Dramatic Reorientation of Trade Partnerships

Perhaps the most consequential transformation in this market was the wholesale restructuring of the EU's trade partnerships. The data reveals that traditional relationships—particularly with the United Kingdom—were fundamentally disrupted, while new dependencies on Japan and South Korea emerged.

The UK collapsed as both supplier and customer

The United Kingdom's disappearance from EU photographic chemical trade is the single most dramatic event in the dataset. In 2015, the UK was the EU's largest export destination (€141.6 million) and second-largest import source (€240.0 million). By 2025, UK imports had fallen to just €4.9 million (−98.0%) and UK-bound exports to €34.2 million (−75.8%). This collapse is consistent with the UK's departure from the EU customs territory following Brexit (completed January 2021), which reclassified UK–EU trade from intra-EU to extra-EU flows—but the scale of the decline suggests that actual trade volumes were also shrinking, not merely being reclassified. The loss of the UK as a major partner fundamentally altered the structure of the market.

Canada followed a similar trajectory, with imports plummeting from €5.1 million to virtually zero (€2,714)—a decline of 99.9%.

Japan emerged as the dominant import supplier

With the UK's retreat, Japan filled the vacuum on the import side. Japanese imports grew from €126.0 million in 2015 to €246.5 million in 2025, an increase of 95.6%. By 2025, Japan alone accounted for approximately 63% of all EU imports in this product category. This concentration around a single supplier reflects the continued dominance of Japanese photographic chemistry firms (notably Fujifilm) in a market where most Western competitors have exited.

The United States maintained its position as the second-largest import source, with values rising from €92.7 million to €113.2 million (+22.0%), while China's share remained relatively stable (€23.3 million to €18.1 million, −22.3%).

South Korea became the EU's fastest-growing export market

On the export side, the most remarkable shift was toward the Republic of Korea. EU exports to South Korea surged from €3.3 million in 2015 to €37.9 million in 2025—an increase of 1,057.5%. This single partner's growth helped offset the catastrophic loss of the UK market. Meanwhile, exports to Russia fell from €17.0 million to €2.0 million (−88.0%), likely reflecting the impact of EU sanctions following 2022.

Price shocks marked the transition

The volatility analysis reveals several notable price shocks during the transition period:

• A Japanese import price shock in 2017 saw unit prices jump by 65.5%, with an abnormality score of 67.1—occurring precisely as Japan was consolidating its role as the EU's primary supplier and accounting for 51.4% of import value.
• An Egyptian export price shock in 2017 saw prices surge by 206.1%, though from a low base (0.9% of export value).
• A South Korean export price shock in 2019 saw prices leap by 249.0%, coinciding with the rapid ramp-up of EU exports to that market.

These shocks suggest that the structural reorientation of trade was accompanied by significant price dislocations as supply chains reorganised.

3. Increasing Supply Concentration and Shifting Production Geography

Behind the headline trade figures, the data reveals a market characterised by growing concentration on the import side, geographic specialisation within the EU, and a steep decline in EU production volumes.

Import concentration intensified while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration rose from 3,246 to 4,827 (+48.7%), placing imports firmly in the "highly concentrated" category. Japan's dominance as the sole major supplier explains this concentration: the loss of the UK and Canada as alternative sources left the EU with fewer supply options.

By contrast, export concentration fell from 1,634 to 831 (−49.1%). The loss of the UK as a dominant export destination forced EU exporters to diversify into markets such as South Korea, China, and others. While this diversification reduces single-market dependency, it also reflects the fact that no single partner has replaced the UK's former scale.

EU production volumes collapsed by over 90%

According to the production data, EU production of photographic chemical preparations fell from 600,000 kg (600 tonnes) in 2015 to just 52,000 kg (52 tonnes) in 2025—a decline of 91.3%. Production value declined more moderately, from €400 million to €320 million (−20.0%), indicating that remaining production is concentrated in far higher-value formulations. This suggests that EU producers have largely abandoned bulk photographic chemistry in favour of niche, high-margin products—consistent with the broader retreat of European industry from commodity chemical segments.

Specialisation is concentrated in a handful of Member States

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that photographic chemical expertise within the EU is geographically concentrated:

France, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Belgium all show strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 1.5) in photographic chemicals, while Germany—despite accounting for the largest share of both production and exports—shows only modest specialisation (RCA = 1.08), suggesting this is one sector among many in its industrial portfolio. Meanwhile, countries like Ireland, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Finland show virtually no specialisation in this product.

The Netherlands and Belgium's divergent trajectories

Within the EU, the Netherlands and Belgium illustrate contrasting adaptations. The Netherlands was historically the EU's largest importer (€272.8 million in 2015) and exporter (€211.0 million), reflecting its role as a major transit and re-export hub. By 2025, both flows had fallen by roughly two-thirds. Belgium, by contrast, saw its imports surge from €6.5 million to €73.4 million (+1,037.5%) and its exports more than double from €38.9 million to €83.9 million (+115.7%). This suggests a possible relocation of photographic chemical handling and processing activities from the Netherlands to Belgium—potentially reflecting changes in corporate logistics strategies or customs arrangements.

Conclusion

The EU market for photographic chemical preparations (CN 370790) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The decade was defined by three interconnected dynamics: a halving of traded volumes reflecting the secular decline of traditional film photography; a dramatic reorientation of trade partnerships driven by Brexit, sanctions, and the consolidation of Japanese supply dominance; and a geographic restructuring of production and trade flows within the EU itself.

The market that emerges in 2025 is smaller in volume but more concentrated: a single supplier (Japan) now accounts for roughly two-thirds of EU imports, creating a significant supply dependency risk. The net import reliance ratio, while having declined from 34.8% to 29.9%, masks the fact that import concentration has sharply increased. Export diversification has improved, but at the cost of losing the UK—the EU's former largest single customer.

Rising unit prices across both trade flows suggest that photographic chemicals are transitioning from a commodity product to a specialty niche, with remaining volumes concentrated in higher-value formulations for professional, industrial, or archival applications. EU production has collapsed in volume but held up in value, pointing to the same conclusion: the industry is surviving by moving upmarket.

Looking ahead, the key vulnerabilities are clear. Heavy dependence on Japanese imports, combined with a shrinking EU production base, leaves the market exposed to supply disruptions. The rapid growth of South Korean exports offers some diversification potential on the demand side, but the fundamental challenge remains: photographic chemistry is a declining market adapting to a post-film world, and the EU's position within it continues to narrow.