Market evolution: Sheet film (CN 370130) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of the European Union (EU) for photographic plates and film in the flat (CN 370130) between 2015 and 2025. The data reveals a market undergoing a profound structural transformation, characterized by the collapse of EU production and a dramatic pivot from being a significant net exporter to a net importer. The primary drivers appear to be the continued decline of traditional analogue photography and cinematography, leading to massive shifts in sourcing and consumption patterns. The following sections detail the key dynamics of this transformation.

1. The Collapse of Domestic Production and the Surge in Imports

The most striking trend over the decade is the steep decline in EU production, coupled with a massive increase in imports, fundamentally altering the region's supply chain.

EU production experienced a severe contraction

EU production of photographic film (measured in square metres) fell by 72.8% from 2015 to 2025. The value of this production declined by 65.1% over the same period. This indicates not only a reduction in volume but also a shift towards lower-value production or products. The production volumes dashboard underscores the scale of this decline.

Imports grew exponentially to fill the supply gap

As domestic production contracted, the EU turned to external suppliers. Import volumes increased by 367.9% (in tonnes) and by 431.0% (in square metres) between 2015 and 2025. The value of imports rose by 146.9% to over €335 million. The General Overview dashboard details this surge.

China emerged as the dominant import source

The import growth was overwhelmingly driven by China. Imports from China grew by 1,462.4% in value from €15 million in 2015 to €235 million in 2025, making it by far the largest supplier. This single-country focus is reflected in a 108.2% increase in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value, rising from 2,532 to 5,272, indicating a highly concentrated and less diversified import market.

2. Shifting Trade Balance and Evolving Partnership Dynamics

The simultaneous decline in exports and surge in imports reversed the EU's trade position and reshaped its key trade relationships.

The EU transformed from a net exporter to a net importer

In 2015, the EU had a healthy trade surplus of €375.9 million. By 2025, this surplus had collapsed to €93.9 million, a decline of 75.0%. The net import reliance metric confirms this shift, showing the EU moved from a position of significant export strength (-37.8%) to a much weaker position (-23.1%).

Export volumes declined while values remained more resilient

EU export volumes (tonnes) fell by 24.9% and export values (EUR) by 16.1%. However, the average export price per tonne increased by 11.7%, and the price per square metre by 14.1%. This suggests a shift in the EU's export basket towards higher-value, niche products (e.g., for medical, industrial, or artistic use) as mass-market demand faded. The volatility analysis shows exports to key partners like Türkiye and India were relatively stable (low coefficient of variation).

Traditional export partnerships weakened, while others strengthened

Exports to the United Kingdom, historically the top destination, fell by 48.1% in value. Similarly, exports to Russia fell by 56.7%. In contrast, exports to the United States grew by 57.5%, and to Switzerland by 40.6%. This points to a reorientation of the EU's residual export market towards other advanced economies likely with specialized demand. The export partners data details these changes.

3. Structural Market Realignment and Increased Vulnerability

The period saw a fundamental realignment of the market's structure, affecting which EU countries are central players and increasing the bloc's dependency on external suppliers.

Import and export specialization became highly concentrated within the EU

In 2025, Belgium and Germany were the most specialized in importing and exporting this film respectively, as measured by Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA). For imports, Belgium's RSCA was 0.57, and for exports, Germany's was 0.34. Other member states like Denmark, Luxembourg, and Portugal showed negligible activity, highlighting a consolidation of trade flows through a few key logistics and production hubs.

The export market became more concentrated by volume

While the HHI for export value remained stable (increasing just 1.1%), the HHI for export volume rose by 17.3%. This indicates that while the value of exports was spread across multiple partners, the physical volume was increasingly directed to a smaller set of destinations, possibly for re-export or specific industrial uses.

EU trade intensity and export propensity increased dramatically

Paradoxically, as the EU became a net importer, its overall trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) and export propensity (exports as a share of production) soared, reaching 97.0% and 94.8% respectively by 2025. This is a direct consequence of the 72.8% drop in domestic production. The shrinking domestic industrial base means that the remaining production is overwhelmingly oriented towards and integrated with the global market, increasing the sector's exposure to international shocks.

Conclusion

The market for EU photographic sheet film (CN 370130) has undergone a decade-long transformation from a largely self-sufficient, export-oriented industry to one heavily reliant on imports. This structural shift was driven by the collapse of domestic production, likely due to the digital revolution in imaging. The EU now acts more as a niche producer and a major consumer, with China dominating supply. While the EU's export profile has evolved towards higher-value products, its overall market position has weakened, characterized by a vanishing trade surplus and a high degree of dependency on a concentrated import base. The increased trade intensity metrics reflect this new reality of a deeply interconnected but vulnerable market structure.