Market evolution: Modified starches and glues (CN 35) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade performance of the European Union in Combined Nomenclature heading 35 — "Albuminoidal Substances; Modified Starches; Glues; Enzymes" — over the 2015–2025 period. This broad product group encompasses casein and albumins (3501–3502), gelatin (3503), peptones and protein derivatives (3504), modified starches (3505), prepared glues and adhesives (3506), and enzymes (3507). The EU has evolved into an increasingly powerful net exporter in this sector: its trade surplus grew from €3.32 billion in 2015 to €5.56 billion in 2025, a gain of 67.3% (General Overview). Net import reliance deepened from –16.8% to –52.1%, confirming the bloc's structural export orientation. Across the decade, three broad dynamics stand out: a strong value-driven expansion of exports outpacing volume growth; a pronounced shift in product composition toward higher-value enzymatic and protein-based segments; and a reorientation of trade partnerships that has increased both geographic diversification and exposure to new sources of volatility.

1. A decade of value-driven export expansion, outpacing volume growth

1.1 Export value surged 61.7% while volumes rose only 5.4%

Between 2015 and 2025, EU extra-EU exports of CN 35 products rose from €5.25 billion to €8.49 billion, an increase of 61.7%. Over the same period, export volumes grew far more modestly — from 1.54 million tonnes to 1.62 million tonnes, a gain of just 5.4% (trade). The gap between value and volume trajectories points squarely to a powerful price effect: the average unit export price climbed from €3,405 per tonne to €5,223 per tonne (+53.4%). The EU's export strategy in this sector has thus been characterised less by shipping more tonnes and more by shipping higher-value products — a sign of rising upmarket positioning and, in some sub-sectors, inflationary pressures on raw-material-intensive inputs.

1.2 Imports grew strongly in value but from a much smaller base

EU imports of CN 35 goods also expanded meaningfully — from €1.92 billion to €2.92 billion (+51.9%) — but import volumes rose 22.2% to 523,000 tonnes, a steeper volume gain than on the export side. The average import price increased from €4,496/t to €5,586/t (+24.3%). Notably, the import unit price has consistently exceeded the export unit price throughout the period (€5,586 vs. €5,223 in 2025), suggesting that the EU sources certain high-cost specialty inputs — particularly enzymes and protein derivatives — from non-EU suppliers, while exporting larger volumes of lower-unit-price modified starches and adhesives.

1.3 The trade surplus widened to €5.56 billion, reinforcing the EU's net-exporter status

The EU's positive trade balance in CN 35 grew from €3.32 billion in 2015 to €5.56 billion in 2025, reflecting a 67.3% improvement. The peak surplus was recorded in 2023 at €6.32 billion, before a slight contraction in 2024–2025. Net import reliance deepened from –16.8% to –52.1% over the decade, meaning the bloc now exports roughly twice the value it imports in this product family (net import reliance). Export propensity — the share of domestic production exported — rose from 31.3% to 52.0%, a 66% increase, underscoring how globally integrated EU producers in this sector have become (export propensity).

2. Structural shift toward high-value enzymatic and protein segments

2.1 Enzymes (3507) and peptones/protein derivatives (3504) drove the largest value gains

A breakdown of CN 35 trade at the sub-heading level reveals that the value expansion was far from uniform. Enzymes (3507) recorded the steepest price appreciation on the import side: the unit price rose from €9,580/t in 2015 to €14,854/t in 2025, a 55% increase. Import value for enzymes climbed from €440 million to €680 million (+55%). On the export side, enzymes also dominate: export value grew from €1.52 billion to €2.24 billion (+47%), with the unit export price rising from €11,150/t to €14,607/t (product segment breakdown).

Peptones and protein derivatives (3504) saw an even more dramatic export surge: export value climbed from €337 million to €913 million (+170.8%), driven by both higher volumes (from 64,100 t to 88,733 t) and a near-doubling of unit prices (from €5,258/t to €10,276/t). Import prices in this segment also rose sharply, from €6,574/t to €6,612/t. This segment's rapid expansion likely reflects growing global demand for specialty protein ingredients in food, feed, and pharmaceutical applications.

2.2 Albumins (3502) experienced explosive price and value growth

Among the smaller segments, albumins (3502) stand out for the sheer magnitude of price appreciation. The import unit price surged from €4,850/t to €7,232/t (+49%), while the export unit price rose from €7,327/t to €10,111/t (+38%). Export value for albumins nearly doubled from €382 million to €860 million (+126%). This pattern is consistent with tightening global supply conditions for whey protein concentrates and related albumin products, which have been subject to strong demand from the nutrition and sports-supplement sectors worldwide.

2.3 Casein (3501) bucked the trend with declining import volumes but rising export prices

Casein imports (3501) declined in volume from 23,153 tonnes to just 10,702 tonnes (–54%), while import value fell from €139 million to €69 million (–51%). This contraction may reflect the EU's growing domestic capacity in caseinates and the competitive pressure from New Zealand and other dairy exporters. On the export side, casein volumes held relatively steady (87,138 t in 2015 vs. 92,287 t in 2025), but the export unit price spiked dramatically to a peak of €11,461/t in 2022 before settling at €7,102/t in 2025, suggesting episodes of acute market tightness.

2.4 Modified starches (3505) lost export volume share despite value growth

The largest segment by export volume — dextrins and modified starches (3505) — saw export volumes decline from 681,102 tonnes to 596,296 tonnes (–12.5%). However, the export unit price nearly doubled from €916/t to €1,439/t (+57.1%), allowing export value to still grow from €624 million to €858 million (+37.5%). Import volumes in this segment were broadly flat at around 87,000–110,000 tonnes. This suggests that EU producers of modified starches may be prioritising higher-margin specialty grades over bulk commodity starches.

3. Geographical reorientation and emerging supply-chain vulnerabilities

3.1 China and Türkiye emerged as the fastest-growing trade partners

The most striking geographical shifts occurred on both the import and export sides with China and Türkiye. EU imports from China surged from €186 million to €429 million (+131.4%), making China the third-largest source of CN 35 imports by 2025. Meanwhile, EU imports from Türkiye exploded from just €17 million to €124 million (+616.8%), the most dramatic percentage increase among all major partners (top partners). On the export side, China also became the fastest-growing destination: EU exports to China nearly tripled from €383 million to €941 million (+145.7%), overtaking Japan as a top-five market.

3.2 Russia's share collapsed following geopolitical realignment

A striking counter-trend is the near-halving of EU exports to the Russian Federation — from €365 million in 2015 to just €185 million in 2025 (–49.2%). The sharpest contraction occurred after 2022, consistent with the trade restrictions and market disengagement following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This decline was partly offset by the rise of the "unspecified territories" category (exports to non-specified destinations grew from €281 million to €613 million, +118.6%), which may include indirect re-routing or reporting reclassifications.

3.3 Denmark, the Netherlands, and Ireland stand out as specialised EU exporters

Within the EU, Denmark is the most specialised exporter of CN 35 products, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.69 and a Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) of 5.37 in 2025 (specialisation). Denmark's export value in this sector grew from €810 million to €1.48 billion (+83%). Ireland showed the highest growth rate among major exporters (+110.4%, from €257 million to €541 million), likely driven by the island's strong dairy-processing and biotechnology sectors. The Netherlands, a key transit hub, nearly doubled its imports (from €258 million to €517 million, +100.6%), reflecting its role as a redistribution point for CN 35 products entering the EU single market.

3.4 Concentration declined slightly, but partner-specific volatility remains elevated

Market concentration, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), declined modestly on both the import and export sides. Import HHI (by value) fell from 1,566 to 1,431 (–8.6%), and export HHI fell from 701 to 664 (–5.3%) (concentration). This points to a gradual diversification of partners. However, certain bilateral relationships remain highly volatile. Türkiye's import coefficient of variation (CV) stands at 0.59 — the highest among top partners — reflecting the dramatic swings observed over the decade. On the export side, the Russian Federation shows the highest volatility (CV = 0.43), driven by the post-2022 collapse. Price shocks were detected in 2022 for exports to Algeria (+55.7% price shift), Indonesia (+69.6%), and Australia (+28.2%), all likely connected to the commodity-price spike that year (supply shocks).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in CN 35 products has undergone a transformation defined by rising values, shifting product composition, and evolving geographic patterns. Export value grew by nearly 62%, overwhelmingly driven by unit-price appreciation rather than volume expansion — a sign that EU producers have moved up the value chain toward enzymes, specialty proteins, and high-grade adhesives. The trade surplus more than doubled, cementing the EU's position as a structural net exporter.

The product-mix shift is evident at the sub-heading level: enzymes (3507) and protein derivatives (3504) accounted for the bulk of value gains, while casein imports (3501) contracted sharply and modified-starch export volumes (3505) declined even as prices rose. These dynamics reflect broader trends in global demand for bio-based and high-technology inputs in food, pharmaceutical, and industrial applications.

Geographically, China and Türkiye have become significantly more important as both suppliers and customers, while exports to Russia have nearly halved since 2022. The EU's internal specialisation map highlights Denmark, Ireland, and the Netherlands as the most dynamic players, each leveraging distinct competitive advantages in dairy derivatives, biotechnology, and logistics respectively. While overall market concentration has declined — a positive sign for supply-chain resilience — partner-specific volatility remains a concern, particularly for trade flows with Türkiye and, on the export side, the post-sanctions relationship with Russia. The price shock events of 2022 serve as a reminder that this sector, despite its broad base, remains exposed to global commodity and geopolitical disruptions.