Market evolution: Adhesives (CN 3506) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in prepared glues and adhesives (Combined Nomenclature code 3506) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers a broad range of adhesive products: polymer- and rubber-based industrial adhesives (350691), retail-packaged adhesives weighing ≤ 1 kg (350610), and other prepared glues and adhesives not elsewhere specified (350699). Over the eleven-year window, the EU's adhesive sector underwent a pronounced structural transformation: the bloc consolidated its position as a major net exporter, its trade surplus more than doubled, and the value of both exports and production grew far faster than physical volumes—pointing to significant price appreciation and a move up the value chain. At the same time, the geographic composition of trade shifted markedly, import sources diversified, and the product mix tilted increasingly toward high-value retail and polymer-based adhesives. The sections below unpack these dynamics in detail.
1. Value-Led Growth: The EU's Widening Trade Surplus
1.1 Export value surged while volumes barely moved
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's extra-EU exports of CN 3506 products rose from €1.31 billion to €2.06 billion, an increase of 57.9%. In stark contrast, export quantities grew by only 3.5% (from 397,307 tonnes to 411,206 tonnes). This divergence means that virtually all of the export value expansion was driven by higher unit prices: the average export price climbed from €3,286/t to €5,014/t (+52.6%).
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (EUR) | 1,305,475,686 | 2,061,773,056 | +57.9% |
| Export quantity (t) | 397,307 | 411,206 | +3.5% |
| Export price (EUR/t) | 3,286 | 5,014 | +52.6% |
1.2 The trade surplus more than doubled
The EU's trade surplus in adhesives expanded from €679 million in 2015 to €1.20 billion in 2025, a gain of 77.1%. This widening gap reflects both faster export value growth (+57.9%) relative to import value growth (+37.1%) and a structural improvement in competitiveness. The net import reliance metric—defined as imports minus exports divided by apparent consumption—deepened from −7.6% to −27.3%, confirming that the EU is not merely self-sufficient but an increasingly significant net exporter to the rest of the world.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade balance (EUR) | 679,034,337 | 1,202,761,550 | +77.1% |
| Net import reliance (%) | −7.6% | −27.3% | — |
1.3 Production value grew strongly, confirming a sector-wide price uplift
EU domestic production data (PRODCOM) tells a consistent story. Output quantity rose modestly from 3.55 billion kg to 3.73 billion kg (+5.0%), while production value surged from €3.29 billion to €5.78 billion (+75.7%). This confirms that the price appreciation observed in trade statistics reflects a broader, sector-wide phenomenon—likely driven by raw-material cost inflation, the shift toward higher-value specialty adhesives, and the pricing power of established EU manufacturers.
2. Geopolitical Shifts and the Diversification of Trade Partners
2.1 Import sources diversified significantly
The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell from 2,272 in 2015 to 1,711 in 2025 (−24.7%), moving the import structure from a moderately concentrated profile toward a more diversified one. This is visible in the rapid emergence of new or previously marginal suppliers:
| Import Partner | 2015 (EUR) | 2025 (EUR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 183,250,943 | 206,969,781 | +12.9% |
| United Kingdom* | — | 175,933,222 | — |
| United States | 179,062,311 | 160,023,376 | −10.6% |
| China | 52,834,054 | 145,149,053 | +174.7% |
| Korea, Republic of | 13,311,117 | 47,522,489 | +257.0% |
| Türkiye | 10,091,607 | 33,988,447 | +236.8% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 176,068 | 758,651 | +330.9% |
The United Kingdom appears as a non-EU partner from 2021 following its withdrawal from the EU customs union.
China's share of EU adhesive imports nearly tripled, and Asian suppliers such as South Korea and Türkiye expanded dramatically. These shifts suggest a reorientation of supply chains, potentially accelerated by cost competitiveness in Asia and the EU's efforts to diversify sourcing post-COVID.
2.2 Export geography was reshaped by sanctions, Brexit, and Asian demand
On the export side, the most dramatic change was the decline of Russia and the rise of China as EU adhesive export destinations:
| Export Partner | 2015 (EUR) | 2025 (EUR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom* | — | 246,850,925 | — |
| China | 99,004,935 | 310,041,786 | +213.2% |
| United States | 81,906,236 | 190,917,132 | +133.1% |
| Türkiye | 108,815,182 | 150,203,341 | +38.0% |
| Russian Federation | 150,895,473 | 96,353,520 | −36.1% |
| Switzerland | 75,890,569 | 90,677,011 | +19.5% |
| Ukraine | 26,624,929 | 46,124,050 | +73.2% |
Russia's decline (−36.1%) is consistent with the progressive tightening of EU sanctions following 2022, which restricted trade in many industrial goods. Meanwhile, China became the EU's single largest adhesive export market by value (€310 million), overtaking long-standing partners. The United States also grew sharply (+133.1%), reflecting strong demand from the US construction and manufacturing sectors.
2.3 Germany anchored EU production, while Southern and Eastern Europe gained ground
Within the EU, Germany remained the dominant exporter of adhesives, accounting for over half of extra-EU export value (€1.03 billion in 2025, +64.9%). However, several other Member States recorded faster proportional growth:
| EU Exporter | 2015 (EUR) | 2025 (EUR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 626,941,082 | 1,033,876,685 | +64.9% |
| Italy | 169,974,478 | 289,330,707 | +70.2% |
| Spain | 38,148,795 | 103,049,843 | +170.1% |
| Poland | 47,576,932 | 97,245,726 | +104.4% |
| France | 135,180,353 | 123,786,931 | −8.4% |
Spain (+170.1%) and Poland (+104.4%) stand out, suggesting that adhesive production capacity is gradually spreading eastward and southward within the EU, likely driven by lower labour costs and proximity to growing markets. France, by contrast, saw a slight decline (−8.4%), potentially reflecting relocation of production or loss of competitiveness.
Specialisation analysis confirms the concentration of competitive advantage: Germany (RCA 1.61), the Netherlands (1.33), Portugal (1.30), France (1.22), and Italy (1.16) all display revealed comparative advantage in adhesives, while smaller Member States such as Bulgaria, Malta, and Luxembourg remain net importers.
2.4 Supply-chain shocks were concentrated in specific bilateral relationships
Volatility analysis reveals that the most stable import relationships (low coefficient of variation) were with Switzerland (CV = 0.075) and Malaysia (0.153), while imports from Egypt (0.817), South Korea (0.486), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (0.461) were considerably more volatile. On the export side, the UK (CV = 0.051) and Türkiye (0.073) were the most predictable destinations, whereas Kuwait (0.807) and Norway (0.242) showed large year-to-year swings.
Three notable price shock events were detected:
- Israel (exports, 2020): An 18.5% price decline coinciding with the onset of COVID-19.
- United Kingdom (imports, 2021): A 27.4% price drop during the first full year of post-Brexit trade, likely reflecting transitional disruptions and reclassification effects.
- Mexico (exports, 2022): A 21.1% price increase, possibly linked to post-pandemic supply constraints.
3. The Changing Product Mix: Retail Adhesives Surge as Product Portfolios Evolve
3.1 Polymer-based adhesives (350691) remained the dominant trade category
Industrial adhesives based on polymers or rubber (subheading 350691) accounted for the largest share of both EU imports and exports throughout the period. In 2025, this subheading represented 59.5% of total import value (€510 million) and 63.8% of total export value (€1.31 billion). Import volumes grew from 119,169 tonnes to 143,596 tonnes (+20.5%), while export volumes rose from 294,962 tonnes to 322,462 tonnes (+9.3%). In both directions, value growth substantially outpaced volume growth, mirroring the overall market trend.
| Trade flow | 2015 quantity (t) | 2025 quantity (t) | 2015 value (EUR) | 2025 value (EUR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports — 350691 | 119,169 | 143,596 | 413,374,097 | 510,491,506 |
| Exports — 350691 | 294,962 | 322,462 | 881,341,811 | 1,314,324,293 |
3.2 Retail-packaged adhesives (350610) became the fastest-growing export segment
The most striking product-level trend was the surge in exports of retail-packaged adhesives (350610). Export volumes grew from 31,194 tonnes to 43,945 tonnes (+40.9%), but export value more than doubled, rising from €261 million to €580 million (+122.1%). The average export price for this subheading climbed from €8,369/t to €13,193/t (+57.6%), making it the highest-priced category by unit value. This suggests that EU producers have moved toward premium, branded, or specialty retail adhesive products with strong margins.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export quantity (t) — 350610 | 31,194 | 43,945 | +40.9% |
| Export value (EUR) — 350610 | 261,120,610 | 579,914,375 | +122.1% |
| Export price (EUR/t) — 350610 | 8,369 | 13,193 | +57.6% |
Imports of 350610 were notably volatile, particularly in 2020 when volumes spiked to 89,364 tonnes (up from 27,348 tonnes in 2019) at a unit price of just €1,928/t—far below the typical range of €6,000–9,600/t. This anomaly likely reflects a temporary classification shift or data-reporting irregularity rather than a genuine market event, as volumes returned to normal levels (28,440 t) by 2025.
3.3 Other adhesives (350699) showed divergent volume and value trends
The third subheading—other prepared glues and adhesives (350699)—exhibited a puzzling pattern in exports. Physical volumes declined substantially, from 71,151 tonnes in 2015 to 44,799 tonnes in 2025 (−37.0%), yet export value remained broadly stable (€163 million to €168 million, +2.8%). The explanation lies in unit prices: the export price for 350699 products rose from €2,291/t to €3,738/t (+63.2%), fully compensating for the volume decline. This pattern is consistent with a shift within this residual category toward higher-value, specialty formulations.
On the import side, 350699 volumes were relatively stable (22,564 t in 2015 vs. 25,168 t in 2025, +11.5%), while values rose from €73 million to €108 million (+46.6%), again reflecting price appreciation.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export quantity (t) — 350699 | 71,151 | 44,799 | −37.0% |
| Export value (EUR) — 350699 | 163,013,265 | 167,534,388 | +2.8% |
| Export price (EUR/t) — 350699 | 2,291 | 3,738 | +63.2% |
Conclusion
The EU adhesive market (CN 3506) evolved substantially between 2015 and 2025. Three overarching conclusions emerge from the data.
First, the EU cemented its role as a leading global exporter and a strong net exporter. The trade surplus widened to over €1.2 billion, and net import reliance deepened to −27.3%. Crucially, this expansion was overwhelmingly price-driven rather than volume-driven: across both exports and domestic production, values grew by 58–76% while quantities rose by only 3–5%.
Second, the geographic landscape of EU adhesive trade was significantly redrawn. Traditional partners like Russia gave way under the weight of sanctions, while China, the United States, and several emerging economies (Türkiye, South Korea) absorbed a growing share of EU exports. On the import side, supply diversification accelerated, reducing concentration risk but also increasing exposure to more volatile suppliers.
Third, the product composition shifted toward higher-value segments. Retail-packaged adhesives (350610) emerged as the fastest-growing export category by value, while polymer-based industrial adhesives (350691) maintained their dominant position. Even the declining-volume "other adhesives" segment (350699) managed to hold its value through price increases, suggesting a market-wide trend toward premiumisation.
Taken together, these dynamics paint a picture of an industry that is consolidating its competitive advantages through value creation rather than volume expansion, diversifying its trade relationships, and adapting to a more complex geopolitical environment.