Market evolution: Retail glues and adhesives (CN 350610) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in CN 350610 — products suitable for use as glues or adhesives, put up for retail sale, weighing net ≤ 1 kg — over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a market that has expanded substantially in value while maintaining a firmly positive trade balance. Over the decade, EU exports more than doubled in value (+122.1%), imports grew by 72.5%, and the trade surplus widened from €121 million to €339 million. The analysis that follows is structured around three main dynamics: the broad macroeconomic trajectory of the market, the evolving geography of the EU's trade relationships, and the structural shifts that underpin the EU's growing competitive position.

1. A decade of robust growth driven by rising unit values

1.1 The EU's trade surplus widened dramatically

The most striking macro-level trend is the sustained strengthening of the EU's trade position. Starting from a surplus of approximately €121 million in 2015, the EU's net exporter status grew to nearly €339 million by 2025 — a 179.2% increase. This expansion was driven by exports growing faster (+122.1% in value) than imports (+72.5%), as visible in the general trade overview.

1.2 Price appreciation outpaced volume growth on the export side

A closer look at quantity and price reveals that value expansion was not purely volume-driven. Export quantities grew by 40.9% (from 31,194 t to 43,945 t), while export unit prices surged by 57.6% (from €8,369/t to €13,193/t). This suggests a combination of inflationary pressures, possible product-mix effects (shift toward higher-value formulations), and stronger pricing power on EU manufacturers' part. On the import side, the picture was more moderate: quantities rose 40.4% and unit prices increased 22.8%, indicating that import price pressures were less pronounced.

1.3 EU production expanded in value more than in volume

EU domestic production grew modestly in physical terms (+5.0%) from 3.55 billion kg to 3.73 billion kg, but its reported value rose much more steeply (+75.7%) from €3.29 billion to €5.78 billion. This mirrors the price increase observed in trade data and likely reflects input cost inflation (raw materials, energy, labour) as well as an upmarket shift in product composition over the decade.

2. Geographical realignment: the rise of new trade corridors

2.1 China dominates imports but the UK and Türkiye show the fastest growth

The partner-country breakdown reveals that China has been the EU's largest single import source throughout the period, growing from €35.9 million to €63.8 million (+77.7%). The United Kingdom, the second-largest supplier, grew almost as fast (+66.5% to €42.5 million), partly reflecting an intensification of cross-Channel trade post-Brexit. However, the most dramatic expansion came from smaller origins: imports from Türkiye surged by 706.0% (from €1.0 million to €8.2 million), and those from the Republic of Korea rose by 108.8%.

Switzerland was the only major partner to show a decline (−11.5%), possibly reflecting exchange-rate dynamics or re-routing of flows.

2.2 EU exports diversified: Central Asia and the Middle East emerged rapidly

On the export side, the United Kingdom remained the largest single destination, with values growing 122.7% to €70.7 million. The most noteworthy trend, however, is the emergence of Kazakhstan as a major recipient: EU exports there grew by an extraordinary 926.8% (from €2.3 million to €23.1 million). Exports to Türkiye more than doubled (+106.4%), and those to the United States rose 124.0%. By contrast, exports to the Russian Federation fell by 43.9% (from €27.6 million to €15.5 million), a decline likely linked to the sanctions regime following 2022.

2.3 Germany anchored the EU's production base for the sector

Among EU member states, Germany dominated both exports (€339 million in 2025, +129.5%) and imports (€68 million, +42.0%). Poland was the fastest-growing exporter, with values surging by 335.9% — from €9.3 million to €40.4 million — suggesting a rapid scaling-up of adhesive manufacturing capacity, consistent with Poland's broader industrial expansion. Other notable EU exporters in 2025 include the Netherlands (€34.0 million), Belgium (€31.9 million), France (€30.3 million), and Ireland (€19.0 million).

3. Structural deepening: growing integration masked by rising self-sufficiency

3.1 The EU strengthened its net exporter position significantly

A key vulnerability indicator, net import reliance, moved from −7.6% to −27.3% over the period. Negative values indicate that the EU is a net exporter; the widening of this figure confirms the structural strengthening of the EU's competitive position. The EU now exports a much larger share of its domestic production than it did a decade ago.

3.2 Export propensity nearly doubled, reflecting an outward-oriented industry

Export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — rose from 19.7% to 35.9%, an 82.7% increase. This was by far the most salient structural shift in the data (salience score: 96.8 out of 100). It indicates that the retail adhesive sector became markedly more export-oriented over the decade, potentially reflecting EU manufacturers' push into non-EU markets, improved product competitiveness, or both.

Trade intensity — the sum of imports and exports as a share of production — also climbed meaningfully from 28.7% to 44.0%, confirming that the EU adhesive sector became more globally integrated, even as its net position shifted decidedly outward.

3.3 The market remained moderately concentrated with few major shocks

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports stood at 1,727 in 2015 and 1,748 in 2025, indicating a moderately concentrated import structure that remained essentially stable. The export HHI was lower (from 549 to 690), reflecting a more diversified export base that also became slightly more concentrated over the period.

Only three notable supply shocks were detected:

• A price shock on imports from the United Kingdom centred on 2021 (abnormality score: 12.6; unit price drop of 40.8%), which coincides with the Brexit transition period's impact on pricing and trade documentation.
• Two export price spikes — to Australia in 2017 (abnormality: 25.4; +51.8%) and to the United Arab Emirates in 2018 (abnormality: 12.8; +50.6%) — which likely reflect either shipment composition changes or one-off contract effects, as their value shares were modest (2.1% and 3.6%, respectively).

Overall, the market's volatility profile was manageable. The highest-import volatility partner was the United Kingdom (coefficient of variation: 1.75), likely reflecting Brexit-related trade disruptions.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU retail glues and adhesives market (CN 350610) underwent a period of strong and sustained growth, with trade values more than doubling. The EU consolidated its position as a significant net exporter: the trade surplus nearly tripled, net import reliance deepened to −27.3%, and export propensity — the most pronounced structural shift in the data — rose to 36%. Alongside this, the market grew more globally integrated, with both trade intensity increasing and new trade corridors (notably Kazakhstan and Türkiye on the export side, and the United States on the import side) gaining prominence. The Russian market, once a top EU export destination, contracted sharply post-2022. Price appreciation, rather than pure volume expansion, was the dominant driver of value growth on both the export and production sides, pointing to inflationary and potentially product-mix effects throughout the period. Overall, the data paints a picture of a maturing but dynamic European adhesive industry that has become progressively more outward-facing and price-competitive on global markets.