Market evolution: Synthetic adhesives (CN 350691) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade dynamics of CN 350691 — adhesives based on polymers (headings 3901–3913) or rubber, excluding retail packs ≤ 1 kg — for the European Union's extra-EU trade over 2015–2025. The period is marked by strong structural growth in export values, a widening trade surplus, and notable shifts in both partner geography and product sub-segment composition. While the EU's aggregate adhesive trade volumes grew moderately, price appreciation, geographic diversification, and the EU's deepening role as a net exporter define the decade.
1. A Decade of Price-Driven Value Growth and a Widening Surplus
The EU's external trade in synthetic adhesives expanded significantly in value terms between 2015 and 2025, but this expansion was overwhelmingly driven by rising unit prices rather than volume growth.
1.1 Export values surged nearly 50 % while volumes grew below 10 %
EU extra-EU exports rose from €881 million (2015) to €1,314 million (2025), a gain of 49.1 %. Over the same span, exported tonnage moved from 294,962 t to only 322,462 t (+9.3 %). The implied average export price climbed from €2,988/t to €4,076/t (+36.4 %), with a peak of €4,275/t recorded in the data window. This price trajectory reflects a combination of post-COVID input-cost inflation, energy-price shocks in 2022, and a possible shift toward higher-value formulations.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€ million) | 881.3 | 1,314.3 | +49.1 |
| Export volume (kt) | 295.0 | 322.5 | +9.3 |
| Avg export price (€/t) | 2,988 | 4,076 | +36.4 |
1.2 Imports grew more modestly, reinforcing the EU's net-exporter position
Extra-EU imports rose from €413 million to €510 million (+23.5 %), and from 119,169 t to 143,596 t (+20.5 %). Crucially, the average import price rose only 2.5 % over the period (from €3,469/t to €3,555/t), far less than the export price increase. The EU's trade surplus therefore widened from €468 million to €804 million (+71.8 %), peaking at €912 million. Net import reliance — already negative at −7.6 % in 2015 — deepened to −27.3 % by 2025, confirming the EU's growing structural surplus in this product.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (€ million) | 413.4 | 510.5 | +23.5 |
| Import volume (kt) | 119.2 | 143.6 | +20.5 |
| Avg import price (€/t) | 3,469 | 3,555 | +2.5 |
| Trade balance (€ million) | 468.0 | 803.8 | +71.8 |
1.3 EU production expanded in value far more than in volume
PRODCOM data (code 20.52.10.80) show that EU production value climbed from €3.29 billion to €5.78 billion (+75.7 %), while production tonnage edged up only 5.0 % (from 3.55 million t to 3.73 million t). This mirrors the export-side price dynamics and points to broad-based cost and/or mix-driven price inflation across the adhesive industry.
2. Shifting Geographies: Diversifying Suppliers and Fast-Growing Export Destinations
The geographic composition of EU adhesive trade changed markedly over the decade, with Asian suppliers gaining ground on the import side and Asia-Pacific and North American markets absorbing a growing share of EU exports.
2.1 China and South Korea emerged as rapidly growing import sources
While Switzerland remained the single largest import partner (€153M → €181M, +17.7 %), its share was partially eroded by dramatic growth from Asian origins. EU imports from China soared from €11.3 million to €59.0 million (+422 %), and those from South Korea rose from €2.3 million to €27.2 million (+1,074 %). Türkiye (+214 %) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (+600 %) also surged, albeit from smaller bases. By contrast, US-origin imports fell 41.6 % (from €140M to €82M), shifting the balance of supply toward Asia.
| Import partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 153.3 | 180.5 | +17.7 |
| United Kingdom | 77.5 | 97.8 | +26.1 |
| China | 11.3 | 59.0 | +422.2 |
| United States | 139.8 | 81.6 | −41.6 |
| Türkiye | 6.3 | 19.6 | +213.5 |
| Korea, Republic of | 2.3 | 27.2 | +1,073.7 |
2.2 China and the United States became top export growth engines
On the export side, the most spectacular gains were registered in China (€68M → €192M, +181 %) and the United States (€51M → €131M, +155 %). The United Kingdom remained the top destination (€134M → €157M, +16.4 %), while Türkiye grew to €118M (+29.4 %). Exports to the Russian Federation declined by 30.0 % (from €115M to €81M), likely reflecting the impact of EU sanctions imposed after 2022. Ukraine, despite the conflict beginning in 2022, still showed a +61.8 % increase over the period, suggesting resilient demand or pre-conflict stockpiling dynamics.
| Export partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 134.5 | 156.6 | +16.4 |
| Russian Federation | 115.5 | 80.8 | −30.0 |
| Türkiye | 90.9 | 117.7 | +29.4 |
| United States | 51.5 | 131.5 | +155.5 |
| China | 68.3 | 192.2 | +181.4 |
| Switzerland | 55.5 | 57.1 | +2.9 |
| Ukraine | 20.9 | 33.8 | +61.8 |
2.3 Import concentration fell sharply while export destinations remained diversified
The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners dropped from 2,904 to 2,082 (−28.3 %), moving the EU from a moderately concentrated import structure toward a more diversified one — consistent with the rise of new Asian suppliers. The export HHI was already low and edged down from 723 to 653 (−9.7 %), indicating that EU exporters have long served a broad portfolio of markets and continued to diversify marginally.
2.4 Volatility is highest for smaller, faster-growing partners
Coefficient-of-variation analysis reveals that the most volatile import flows are those from South Korea (CV 0.81) and China (CV 0.75), consistent with their rapid and uneven growth trajectories. Switzerland (CV 0.07) and the United Kingdom (CV 0.19) are the most stable import sources. On the export side, all major partners show relatively low volatility (CVs below 0.24), with Saudi Arabia (CV 0.05) and Türkiye (CV 0.06) being the most predictable. A notable export price shock was detected for Mexico in 2022 (abnormality score 20.1, +24 % shift), likely linked to post-pandemic logistics distortions.
3. An Industry Anchored in Germany, with Diverging Sub-Segment Dynamics
The EU's adhesive export strength rests heavily on a handful of Member States, while the two sub-segments of CN 350691 moved in opposite directions over the period.
3.1 Germany alone accounts for over half of EU extra-EU exports
Germany's export value grew from €458 million to €666 million (+45.5 %), representing roughly 51 % of total EU exports in 2025. Italy more than doubled its exports (€111M → €232M, +108.5 %), and Spain grew from €15M to €70M (+373 %). France, by contrast, saw a decline of 23.5 % (€104M → €79M), ceding share to southern and central European producers. Specialisation analysis confirms Germany's leading role: it has the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA = 0.349) and produces 43.8 % of the product-specific exports but only 21.2 % of total EU exports across all products.
| EU exporter | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 457.8 | 666.4 | +45.5 |
| Italy | 111.1 | 231.7 | +108.5 |
| France | 103.6 | 79.3 | −23.5 |
| Netherlands | 62.1 | 69.7 | +12.2 |
| Belgium | 19.8 | 43.0 | +117.0 |
| Spain | 14.7 | 69.7 | +373.4 |
| Poland | 29.4 | 50.7 | +72.6 |
3.2 General-purpose polymer adhesives (35069190) dominate trade, while display adhesives (35069110) shrink
CN 350691 bundles two sub-headings. The general-purpose adhesive sub-segment (35069190) accounted for 94–97 % of both import and export volumes throughout the period. Its export volume grew from 299,192 t (2017) to 319,397 t (2025), while its export price rose from €3,157/t to €4,074/t. By contrast, the specialised optically clear / display-panel adhesive sub-segment (35069110) experienced a steep decline in export volumes: from 18,623 t to 3,064 t (−83.5 %), even as its export price climbed from €2,659/t to €4,237/t (+59.3 %). This suggests a contraction in physical trade of display adhesives, possibly reflecting relocation of flat-panel manufacturing to Asia or a shift to direct investment rather than cross-border trade. On the import side, sub-segment 35069110 remained small (4,742–6,491 t) with a declining average price (€3,987/t → €1,434/t), consistent with increasing competition from low-cost Asian producers.
3.3 Rising export propensity signals deepening global integration
The EU's export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 19.7 % to 35.9 % (+82.7 %), while trade intensity (total extra-EU trade as a share of production) increased from 28.7 % to 44.0 %. In other words, although production volumes barely grew, a much larger share of that production is now traded internationally — the EU adhesive industry has become significantly more export-oriented over the decade, even as its net import reliance has deepened (i.e., the EU is a growing net exporter in both volume and value terms).
Conclusion
Over 2015–2025, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of polymer-based adhesives (CN 350691). The headline story is one of value outpacing volume: export values grew 49 % on the back of just 9 % volume growth, driven by substantial unit-price increases that likely reflect both cost inflation and a shift toward higher-value products. The trade surplus widened to over €800 million, and the EU's net-exporter status intensified from −7.6 % to −27.3 % net import reliance.
Geographically, the decade saw significant diversification — notably the rapid rise of China and South Korea as import sources, and the strong growth of the United States and China as export markets. The decline in exports to Russia, linked to sanctions, is the most prominent negative shock. At the Member-State level, Germany remains the dominant exporter (over half the EU total), but Italy, Spain, and Poland have gained substantial ground. The niche sub-segment of optically clear display adhesives (35069110) contracted sharply in physical terms, suggesting structural shifts in downstream electronics manufacturing. Overall, the EU adhesive sector has become more globally integrated, more export-oriented, and more reliant on pricing power than on volume expansion.