Market evolution: Chemical preparations (CN 38) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Combined Nomenclature heading 38 ("Miscellaneous Chemical Products") covers a broad and strategically important range of goods — from pesticides (3808) and fuel additives (3811) to biodiesel (3826), industrial chemical preparations (3824), and diagnostic reagents (3822). Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's extra-EU trade in this product group has been characterised by strong value growth, a persistent and widening trade surplus, significant shifts in partner geography, and pronounced price dynamics that reflect both commodity-market turbulence and the EU's evolving industrial base. This report draws on Eurostat trade data aggregated at the CN 38 level to identify and explain the principal dynamics at play.

1. A widening surplus driven by price rather than volume

1.1 Exports grew in value while volumes stagnated

Between 2015 and 2025, EU extra-EU exports of CN 38 rose from €26.3 billion to €39.9 billion — a gain of +51.5 % in value. Over the same span, exported quantities edged down marginally from 9.52 million tonnes to 9.40 million tonnes (−1.2 %). The entire value increase is therefore attributable to a +53.3 % rise in unit export prices, from €2,765/t to €2,440/t in 2025, reaching a peak of €4,240/t by the final year. This pattern — flat tonnage, rising prices — points to a combination of upstream cost pass-through (energy, feedstock) and a compositional shift toward higher-value-added preparations within the CN 38 basket. The trade overview dashboard illustrates how the export value curve diverges sharply from the quantity curve from 2021 onward.

1.2 Import growth outpaced exports in volume terms

EU imports climbed even more steeply: from €16.1 billion to €25.7 billion (+60.0 % in value) and from 6.46 million tonnes to 10.39 million tonnes (+60.7 % in volume). Crucially, however, import unit prices barely moved over the full period — from €2,483/t in 2015 to €2,472/t in 2025 (−0.5 %). This contrasts with the +53 % export-price increase and implies that the EU sourced a growing share of lower-priced bulk products (especially biodiesel and residual chemical products) from third countries while selling more specialised, higher-priced preparations outward.

1.3 The trade surplus remained resilient

Despite faster import growth, the EU's trade surplus in CN 38 widened from €10.3 billion in 2015 to €14.2 billion in 2025 (+38.3 %), hitting a trough of €5.2 billion in 2022 before recovering. The net import reliance indicator confirms the EU's structural position as a net exporter: the ratio moved from −4.5 % to −15.6 %, reinforcing the bloc's self-sufficiency in this product group.

2. Geographical reconfiguration of trade partners

2.1 The United States became the EU's largest single trade partner

The United States consolidated its position as the dominant destination for EU CN 38 exports, with flows rising from €3.2 billion (2015) to €6.0 billion (2025, +89.7 %). On the import side, US-to-EU shipments also grew substantially, from €4.7 billion to €7.0 billion (+48.8 %), making the US the largest extra-EU import origin by value. This bilateral intensification reflects deep integration of EU and US chemical supply chains, particularly in specialty additives, catalysts, and diagnostic reagents.

2.2 Emerging suppliers gained market share rapidly

Several non-traditional partners saw dramatic growth in their exports to the EU:

Argentina's seven-fold increase (from €65 million to €536 million) is primarily linked to biodiesel and fatty-acid imports. Indonesia and Malaysia similarly supplied growing volumes of biodiesel feedstocks and oleochemical precursors. China's expansion was more diversified, spanning activated carbon (3802), chemical preparations (3824), and pesticide formulations (3808). These shifts are documented in the top-partners view.

2.3 Russia's collapse as an export destination

EU exports to the Russian Federation fell from €1.5 billion in 2015 to just €621 million in 2025 (−58.7 %), with a coefficient of variation of 0.57 — the second-highest among the EU's top export partners. The decline began before 2022 but accelerated sharply thereafter as sanctions regimes progressively restricted chemical exports. This loss was largely absorbed by redirecting flows to Türkiye (+75.9 %, reaching €1.9 billion) and other near-shore markets.

2.4 Import concentration declined as the EU diversified sourcing

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 1,708 to 1,201 (−29.7 %), indicating a meaningful diversification away from the historical dominance of the US and the UK. In particular, the UK — which was the single largest import origin in 2015 at €3.9 billion — saw its share decline to €3.3 billion (−16.4 %) by 2025, consistent with post-Brexit trade friction and rules-of-origin adjustments. Meanwhile, export concentration remained more stable at an HHI of around 556–589, reflecting the EU's already broad export base.

3. Sub-segment dynamics: biodiesel swings, chemical preparations growth, and supply shocks

3.1 Biodiesel (3826): the most volatile sub-segment

Biodiesel and its mixtures (CN 3826) exhibit the most dramatic trajectory of any sub-heading. EU imports surged from €633 million in 2015 to a peak of €4.4 billion in 2022 before retreating to €2.0 billion in 2025. Import volumes followed a similar arc, rising from 696 kt to 3.73 Mt (2019) and then contracting to 1.57 Mt by 2025. Unit import prices nearly doubled from €909/t (2015) to €1,601/t (2022), then settled back to €1,275/t in 2025. On the export side, the EU shipped 678 kt of biodiesel in 2015, peaked at 1.86 Mt in 2019, and fell back to 678 kt in 2025 — a full round-trip. The volatility reflects the intersection of EU Renewable Energy Directive mandates, anti-dumping duties on Indonesian and Argentine biodiesel, and palm-oil feedstock controversies.

3.2 Chemical preparations n.e.s. (3824): the structural heavyweight

Prepared binders, chemical products, and miscellaneous preparations (CN 3824) constitute the largest single import and export sub-segment by value. Imports grew from €1.84 billion to €4.31 billion (+134 %), with volumes rising from 738 kt to 1.62 Mt. Export values grew from €5.89 billion to €8.12 billion, while volumes dipped slightly from 3.31 Mt to 3.18 Mt. Again, unit-price appreciation (from €1,782/t to €2,550/t on the export side) explains much of the value increase. This sub-heading's resilience underscores the EU's role as a global supplier of specialty chemical formulations across multiple member states, led by Germany (€13.6 billion in exports in 2025), France (€5.9 billion), and the Netherlands (€4.0 billion).

3.3 Pesticides (3808) held steady with rising unit values

Pesticide exports (insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, disinfectants — CN 3808) remained broadly stable in volume (686 kt in 2015 vs. 691 kt in 2025) but grew in value from €5.05 billion to €5.43 billion. Import values fluctuated around €1.7–2.1 billion, with volumes ranging from 211 kt to 306 kt. The unit export price of CN 3808 was consistently the highest among the top sub-segments, at €7,361/t in 2015 and €7,852/t in 2025, reflecting the high value-added nature of formulated crop-protection products. The EU remains a net exporter of pesticides, with specialised producers concentrated in France, Belgium, and Germany.

3.4 Price shocks and supply-side volatility

The volatility analysis highlights three notable shock events:

The Israel shock in 2018, while extreme in percentage terms, involved a small absolute share of EU imports (2.4 %) and likely reflects a one-off shipment of high-value specialty chemicals. The China import-price shock of 2021 is more consequential: with a 17.2 % value share, the near-doubling of average prices from China contributed materially to the EU's overall import bill that year — consistent with the post-COVID commodity-price surge and shipping-cost inflation. Among the top partners, Argentina shows the highest overall import volatility (coefficient of variation = 0.71), followed by China (0.48) and the United Kingdom (0.43), the latter reflecting post-Brexit trade reconfiguration. On the export side, Russia (CV = 0.57) and the United States (CV = 0.40) were the most volatile destinations.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU's trade in CN 38 miscellaneous chemical products displays three defining features. First, the EU maintained and expanded its role as a net exporter, with a trade surplus that widened to €14.2 billion — entirely on the back of rising unit values, since export volumes were essentially flat. Second, the import landscape was reconfigured: the UK and traditional partners lost relative share while Indonesia, Argentina, Malaysia, and China gained ground, driving the import-concentration HHI down by nearly 30 %. Third, sub-segment volatility — particularly the boom-and-correction cycle in biodiesel imports (CN 3826) and recurrent price shocks from China and Israel — underlines the sensitivity of this product group to energy-policy mandates, feedstock markets, and geopolitical disruption. Looking ahead, the EU's strong export specialisation (evidenced by high RCA scores in Ireland, Belgium, and France) and its deepening trade integration with the US provide a solid foundation, but dependence on a small number of high-volatility suppliers for biodiesel feedstocks and industrial chemicals remains a structural vulnerability to monitor.