Market evolution: Pesticides (CN 3808) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The European Union's trade in pesticides (Combined Nomenclature code 3808) has undergone significant structural changes between 2015 and 2025. This report analyses the evolution of the EU's external trade with non-EU countries in this sector, which encompasses a broad range of products including insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, and disinfectants. The analysis reveals a market characterised by a persistent and expanding trade surplus, a shift in trade geography with key partners, and an underlying transformation in the product mix and pricing dynamics. These trends reflect both internal EU regulatory and market developments and external global pressures over the last decade.

1. A Deepening Trade Surplus Amid Price-Led Value Growth

Over the analysed decade, the EU consistently maintained a positive trade balance in pesticides, with the surplus growing substantially. This growth was not primarily volume-driven but was supported by favourable price movements.

1.1. Exports Outpace Imports, Expanding the Trade Balance

The EU's trade surplus in CN 3808 products expanded by 17.8% from 2015 to 2025. In 2015, the surplus stood at approximately €2.98 billion, rising to €3.51 billion by 2025 (General Overview). This increase was driven by divergent trends in value: EU export value grew by 7.5% (from €5.05bn to €5.43bn), while import value contracted by 7.4% (from €2.07bn to €1.92bn).

1.2. Quantity Stagnation Contrasts with Rising Prices

Despite the positive value trend, the physical volume of trade showed little growth. Export quantity increased by a marginal 0.8%, and import quantity fell by 1.8% over the period (General Overview). The rise in export value was therefore largely a price effect. The unit value (price) for EU exports increased by 6.7%, while the average import price fell by 5.7%. This suggests the EU has been exporting higher-value, potentially more specialised or formulated products while importing relatively lower-value goods.

1.3. Production Shifts Towards Higher Value

The EU's internal production figures mirror the trade price trends. While reported production quantity (in kg of active substance) saw a dramatic 87.9% decrease, the production value more than doubled, rising by 109.0% from 2015 to 2025 (Market Structure). This stark contrast indicates a significant move within the EU industry towards the manufacture of higher-value, likely more complex pesticide preparations, and away from bulk active substance production.

2. Geographic Diversification and Concentration Shocks

The EU's trade relationships for pesticides have become more diversified, though key partners remain critical. This period was marked by significant volatility in some partnerships and notable supply-chain shocks.

2.1. Evolving Import Partners: China's Rise and Switzerland's Decline

The geographic composition of EU imports shifted. The United Kingdom remained the largest supplier, but its share in import value declined by 9.5%. Conversely, imports from China grew by 113.4% (from €101m to €216m), making it a much more significant supplier. The most dramatic change was with Switzerland, which saw its exports to the EU collapse by 81.5% (from €415m to €77m) (General Overview). This could reflect regulatory changes, re-routing of trade, or the relocation of production activities.

2.2. Export Market Reorientation: Towards the US and Türkiye, Away from Brazil

The EU's export markets also reoriented. While the UK remained the top destination, its value decreased by 4.7%. Exports to the United States (+45.5%) and Türkiye (+42.7%) grew substantially. In contrast, exports to Brazil, a historically major market for EU agrochemicals, fell by 29.9%. Exports to Ukraine increased by 33.0%, highlighting the growing importance of Eastern European markets (General Overview).

2.3. Volatility and Acute Supply-Chain Shocks

Trade volatility was uneven across partners. Imports from Türkiye (coefficient of variation 0.82) and Switzerland (0.43) were highly volatile, indicating unstable trade flows (Volatility & Shocks). The period was punctuated by sharp shocks, most notably in 2022. EU import prices from the UK experienced a highly abnormal negative shift (abnormality score 50.8, shift -17.2%) in 2022, coinciding with post-Brexit adjustments and broader inflationary pressures (Volatility & Shocks).

3. Evolution of the Product Mix and Internal Market Dynamics

The composition of traded pesticides evolved, reflecting changing agricultural practices and a major external health event. The internal EU market structure shows high specialisation in certain Member States.

3.1. Disinfectants: A Pandemic-Driven Surge and Sustained Demand

The most striking product-level trend was the explosive growth in the disinfectants segment (CN 380894). Import volume for disinfectants surged by 86% from 2019 to 2020, peaking at nearly 109,000 tonnes, clearly linked to the COVID-19 pandemic (Product Segment Breakdown). While volumes receded from the 2020 peak, they remained well above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting a structural increase in demand. This segment also saw the highest price increases among imports (+42.7% from 2015 to 2025).

3.2. Fungicides and Herbicides Remain the Core Trade

Fungicides (CN 380892) and herbicides (CN 380893) consistently formed the largest segments by value for both EU imports and exports. However, their trajectories diverged. The value of fungicide exports remained relatively stable, while herbicide export value showed more growth until a recent dip. The insecticide segment (CN 380891) saw a notable decline in export quantity (-38.5%), pointing to a potential long-term shift in the product portfolio (Product Segment Breakdown).

3.3. Specialisation Concentrated in Southern and Central Europe

Within the EU, production and export specialisation is highly concentrated. In 2025, France (RSCA 0.47), Greece, Hungary, and Spain were the most specialised Member States in pesticide production and exports, indicating a strong competitive advantage (Market Structure). Conversely, Nordic and Baltic states like Finland and Latvia showed negative specialisation, being net importers. This geographic specialisation underpins the intra-EU trade dynamics and the EU's collective export performance.

Conclusion

The EU pesticides market (CN 3808) from 2015 to 2025 is a story of strategic adaptation. The bloc has solidified its position as a major net exporter, achieving a growing trade surplus primarily through the export of higher-value goods. The trade geography has been reshaped by the decline of traditional partners like Switzerland and Brazil and the rise of China as an import source and the US and Türkiye as key export markets. The period was not without shocks, as seen in the volatile 2022 price fluctuations and the transformative impact of the pandemic on disinfectant demand. Underlying these trade flows is an EU industry that appears to be moving up the value chain, prioritising higher-margin formulations over bulk active substance production. The market remains geographically specialised within the EU, concentrating production advantages in specific Member States. Overall, the sector has demonstrated resilience and adaptability in the face of regulatory, economic, and public health challenges over the past decade.