Market evolution: Insecticides (CN 380891) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in insecticides classified under customs code 380891 ("Insecticides, put up in forms or packings for retail sale or as preparations or articles," excluding certain biopesticides and newer chemical classes). The analysis covers the period 2015–2025 and is based on EU Trade Dashboard data. The EU has consistently been a net exporter of this product, maintaining a large positive trade balance throughout the period. However, the decade saw profound structural changes: a collapse in traded volumes coinciding with sharp price increases, a significant reshuffling of trading partners, and a dramatic shift in the chemical composition of insecticides being traded. These dynamics reflect the combined influence of evolving regulation, post-Brexit trade realignment, input-cost inflation, and changing demand patterns in key export markets.

1. Falling Volumes, Rising Prices: A Decade of Price–Volume Divergence

The most striking macro-level dynamic is the simultaneous decline in traded quantities and surge in unit values for both exports and imports. This pattern suggests that the EU insecticide market has not shrunk in economic importance, but has undergone a fundamental repricing.

1.1 Export volumes fell by nearly 40% while export value barely moved

EU exports to non-EU countries fell from 73,657 tonnes in 2015 to 45,304 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 38.5%. Despite this, the total export value contracted only marginally, from €1.085 billion to €1.050 billion (–3.2%). This apparent paradox is explained by a 57.4% increase in the average export unit price, which climbed from €14,729/t to €23,177/t (trade overview).

1.2 Imports followed a similar pattern: less volume, higher prices

EU imports also declined in volume, from 31,590 tonnes to 23,455 tonnes (–25.8%), yet import value actually rose from €385 million to €423 million (+9.6%). The average import price increased by 47.7%, from €12,200/t to €18,015/t. The fact that import prices rose somewhat less than export prices suggests the EU may have gained pricing power or shifted toward higher-value formulations in its exports.

1.3 The EU's trade surplus narrowed but remained large in absolute terms

The EU ran a persistent trade surplus in insecticides. The balance peaked at approximately €807 million (around 2018–2019) and settled at €628 million in 2025, a decline of 10.3% from 2015. Net import reliance was deeply negative throughout, confirming the EU's role as a structural net exporter; the indicator improved (i.e., became less negative) from –5,365% to –144% over the period, reflecting the convergence of export and import volumes even as the EU maintained a dominant export position (vulnerability indicators).

1.4 Domestic production shifted from volume to value

EU production data reveals the same price–volume divergence at the manufacturing level. Production quantity fell 9.3% (from 199 million units to 180 million units) while production value rose 14.5% (from €1.30 billion to €1.49 billion) (production volumes). This confirms that the price increase is not solely a trade phenomenon but reflects higher input costs, reformulation toward premium products, or both.

2. Post-Brexit Realignment and Geographic Diversification

The period 2015–2025 saw major shifts in the EU's trading partners for insecticides, driven most visibly by the United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market and by the growing role of emerging suppliers.

2.1 The UK lost its dominant position in EU insecticide imports

In 2015, the United Kingdom was the EU's largest source of insecticide imports at €147 million, accounting for a dominant share of the import market. By 2025, UK imports had collapsed to just €46 million, a decline of 69.1% (top partners). The introduction of customs checks, rules-of-origin requirements, and regulatory divergence following Brexit in 2020 appears to have significantly disrupted this trade flow. The volatility of UK-sourced imports (coefficient of variation of 0.47) further underscores the instability of this channel.

2.2 The United States and China emerged as leading suppliers

The United States grew from €80 million to €155 million in EU-bound exports (+93.0%), becoming the single largest import source by 2025. Meanwhile, China more than tripled its shipments from €12 million to €34 million (+171.7%), and India nearly doubled from €13 million to €23 million (+81.6%). Türkiye also surged from a negligible €2.5 million to €15.6 million (+524.7%). These shifts indicate a structural reorientation of EU supply chains toward transatlantic and Asian sources.

2.3 Export destinations shifted dramatically away from Brazil

On the export side, the most dramatic change was the collapse of EU exports to Brazil, which fell from €214 million in 2015 to just €53 million in 2025 (–75.1%). Brazil had been by far the EU's largest export market, and its decline is likely linked to the growth of domestic production capacity and increased competition from Chinese active ingredients. Meanwhile, several other markets expanded: Morocco (+146.2%), Switzerland (+60.8%), Türkiye (+57.6%), and Ukraine (+28.1%) all absorbed more EU product, partially compensating for the Brazilian loss.

2.4 Import diversification increased while export concentration edged up

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports fell from 2,292 to 1,842 (–19.6% by value, –43.8% by volume), indicating meaningful diversification of supply sources — consistent with the UK losing share and multiple new suppliers emerging (concentration). For exports, the HHI rose modestly from 662 to 774 (+17.0%), reflecting a mild concentration of export flows toward fewer, larger partners.

3. Regulatory Pressures and the Shifting Chemical Composition of Trade

Beyond geography, the most consequential structural change in EU insecticide trade has been the dramatic decline of certain chemical classes, particularly organophosphorus compounds and carbamates, while "other" (newer or bio-rational) formulations have gained share.

3.1 Organophosphorus insecticide trade nearly disappeared

Organophosphorus-based insecticides (subheading 38089140) experienced a near-total collapse in both imports and exports. Import volumes fell from 7,387 tonnes to just 385 tonnes (–94.8%), while export volumes declined from 12,989 tonnes to 1,106 tonnes (–91.5%). The import price for this category became extremely volatile — ranging from €6,215/t to €27,484/t across the period — likely reflecting the small, erratic volumes involved in later years. This decline is consistent with the EU's progressive restriction and banning of several organophosphorus active ingredients under Regulation (EC) No 1107/2009, which has systematically phased out substances deemed to pose unacceptable risks to human health or the environment.

3.2 Carbamate insecticides followed a similar downward trajectory

Carbamate-based insecticides (38089130) also declined sharply. Imports dropped from 262 tonnes to 276 tonnes but at much lower levels than in mid-period years; exports fell from 1,618 tonnes to 256 tonnes (–84.2% in volume, –81.1% in value). Like organophosphates, carbamates have faced regulatory headwinds in the EU, with several substances losing approval.

3.3 Pyrethroid-based insecticides showed relative resilience

Pyrethroid-based insecticides (38089110) proved more stable. Import volumes fell from 8,365 tonnes to 4,267 tonnes (–49.0%), while export volumes held up better, declining only from 20,584 tonnes to 18,105 tonnes (–12.0%). Pyrethroids remain widely approved and are the dominant chemical class in consumer and professional insecticide products in the EU, explaining their relative robustness.

3.4 The "other insecticides" category (38089190) now dominates trade

The residual category (38089190), covering insecticides not based on pyrethroids, chlorinated hydrocarbons, carbamates, or organophosphorus compounds, grew to account for the overwhelming majority of both import and export value. In 2025, this category represented 86.1% of total import value (€364 million out of €423 million) and 77.6% of total export value (€815 million out of €1.05 billion). Import volumes for this category actually rose from 15,378 tonnes to 18,432 tonnes (+20.0%), even as overall import volumes declined. This suggests the EU is increasingly importing and exporting novel active ingredients, bio-rational products, or combination formulations that fall outside the traditional chemical classes — a trend consistent with the EU's Farm-to-Fork strategy and the broader push toward reduced-risk pest management.

3.5 EU member states show divergent specialisation patterns

France, Spain, and Italy emerge as the most specialised EU exporters of insecticides, with revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) scores of 0.33, 0.30, and 0.25 respectively, reflecting their large agrochemical manufacturing bases (specialisation). Germany's export value surged by 50.4% (from €241 million to €362 million), overtaking France as the EU's largest exporter by value — despite France's higher specialisation. On the import side, France also saw the largest absolute increase (+46.0%), followed by Germany (+68.3%), suggesting these countries serve as major hubs for both re-export and domestic consumption.

Conclusion

The EU insecticide market (CN 380891) underwent three major transformations between 2015 and 2025. First, traded volumes declined substantially — by roughly a third to two-fifths depending on the flow — but were almost fully offset by sharply higher unit prices, preserving the overall value of trade. Second, the geographic landscape was redrawn: Brexit severed much of the UK–EU trade in this product, while the US, China, India, and Türkiye gained share as suppliers; on the export side, the collapse of the Brazilian market was partially compensated by growth in North African, Swiss, and Turkish demand. Third, the chemical composition of trade shifted decisively toward novel or non-traditional active ingredients (category 38089190), as organophosphorus and carbamate insecticides — both subject to intensifying EU regulatory scrutiny — saw their trade volumes shrink by over 90%.

These dynamics are mutually reinforcing. Regulatory restrictions reduced the available product mix, concentrating trade on fewer, more specialised (and more expensive) formulations. Supply-chain disruptions and post-Brexit friction incentivised diversification of sourcing. The result is an EU insecticide trade that is smaller in volume, more expensive per unit, more geographically diversified in its supply base, and increasingly centred on next-generation active ingredients. Going forward, the continued implementation of the EU's Sustainable Use Regulation and the Farm-to-Fork targets for pesticide reduction are likely to further accelerate these trends, potentially shifting the balance from chemical insecticides toward biological and integrated pest management solutions.