Market evolution: Other insecticides (CN 38089190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in "other insecticides" (Combined Nomenclature code 38089190) — a residual subheading covering insecticide preparations for retail sale that are not based on pyrethroids, chlorinated hydrocarbons, carbamates, or organophosphorus compounds. Over the period 2015–2025, this product category reveals a paradox: the EU has maintained its position as a dominant net exporter of these formulations, yet the underlying volumes tell a story of contraction. Rising unit prices have compensated for — and partially concealed — a significant decline in traded quantities on the export side. At the same time, the geographic composition of both imports and exports has undergone substantial restructuring, shaped by Brexit, geopolitical tensions, and evolving regulatory and competitive landscapes in third-country markets. The full product overview provides the baseline data underpinning these findings.

1. Price-driven growth in a volume-shrinking market

Export volumes contracted by a third while values held steady

The most striking feature of the EU's export performance in CN 38089190 is the divergence between value and volume. Between 2015 and 2025, export quantity fell from 38,380 tonnes to 25,496 tonnes — a decline of 33.6%. Yet export value barely moved, edging up from €785 million to €815 million (+3.7%). This was possible only because unit export prices surged by 56.2%, rising from €20,458/t to €31,947/t — the highest level in the entire period. The trade overview makes this price-volume divergence clearly visible.

This pattern is consistent with a shift toward higher-value, more specialised formulations (e.g. biological insecticides, biopesticides, or novel active ingredients) rather than commodity-grade products. It may also reflect input-cost inflation and regulatory-driven reformulation costs passed through to buyers.

EU production volumes declined but production value increased

The decline in export volumes is corroborated by EU production data. Production quantity fell from approximately 198.8 million kg to 180.3 million kg (−9.3%), while production value rose from €1.30 billion to €1.49 billion (+14.5%). The simultaneous drop in volumes and rise in values at the production level mirrors the trade pattern and suggests the EU's insecticide industry is moving up the value chain.

Import growth was more volume-driven than price-driven

By contrast, EU imports of CN 38089190 grew in a more conventional manner. Import value rose from €284 million to €364 million (+28.4%), supported by a quantity increase from 15,378 tonnes to 18,432 tonnes (+19.9%) and a more modest price increase of 7.1% (from €18,446/t to €19,755/t). This suggests that the EU's import demand has expanded primarily in terms of volume — potentially reflecting growing needs in niche application segments or cost-competitive supply from emerging origins.

The trade balance remains positive but is narrowing

The EU's trade surplus in this product stood at €502 million in 2015 and declined to €450 million in 2025 (−10.2%). While the EU remains a strong net exporter, the gap between exports and imports is narrowing, driven both by import growth and by the erosion of export volumes.

2. A dramatic reshuffling of trade partners

Brexit reshaped the UK's role in both import and export flows

One of the most visible structural shifts concerns the United Kingdom. As an EU member state until early 2020, the UK's trade with the EU was intra-EU and thus outside the scope of extra-EU statistics. From 2021 onward, however, the UK appears as a third-country partner. EU imports from the UK fell from €97.5 million (in 2015 data, when the UK was already partially reported as a non-EU partner in certain datasets) to €37.3 million in 2025 (−61.8%). On the export side, the UK remains a stable destination (€51.4M → €59.3M, +15.5%), suggesting that EU producers continued to serve the British market post-Brexit, though the import drop implies that some UK-origin supply was reclassified, redirected, or reduced.

The United States and China have become dominant import suppliers

The most dramatic growth on the import side came from the United States (+92.8%, from €76.5M to €147.4M) and China (+267.5%, from €8.7M to €32.1M). The US is now the EU's single largest extra-EU import source for this product category, while China has nearly quadrupled its shipments. Türkiye (+655.7%, from €1.6M to €11.8M) and Israel (+243.0%, from €4.2M to €14.6M) also posted very high growth rates, albeit from smaller bases. Meanwhile, Switzerland — traditionally a major supplier, likely linked to the Basel-headquartered agrochemical industry — saw its share drop by 53.6% (from €60.3M to €28.0M).

Brazil's collapse and Morocco's rise transformed the export map

On the export side, the most dramatic change was the plunge in exports to Brazil — from €190.6 million in 2015 to just €52.1 million in 2025 (−72.7%). Brazil was by far the EU's largest single-country export destination in 2015, so this collapse significantly reshaped the export portfolio. The likely explanation is the maturation of Brazil's domestic agrochemical manufacturing capacity, coupled with increased competition from Chinese and Indian generic producers.

Morocco stands out as the fastest-growing export market (+246.8%), potentially reflecting expanding agricultural pest-control needs in North Africa and the EU's geographic and regulatory proximity. Switzerland also grew strongly (+63.1%), reinforcing its role as a hub for formulation, re-export, or specialty distribution.

Trade concentration has declined on both sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (concentration analysis) confirms a diversification trend. Import concentration (by value) fell from 2,419 to 2,120 (−12.4%), and export concentration fell from 907 to 701 (−22.6%). The EU's export portfolio is notably less concentrated than its import portfolio, reflecting the wide range of destination markets served. Both trends point to reduced single-partner dependency — a positive signal for supply-chain resilience.

3. Shifting specialisation, volatility, and strategic autonomy

Southern and Central European member states dominate EU production

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that export specialisation in CN 38089190 is concentrated in a handful of member states:

Italy and France together account for nearly 29% of EU production in this category, and both display a revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 1). By contrast, northern European countries (Slovakia, Ireland, Finland, Sweden) show strongly negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers in this product relative to their overall trade profile.

The EU's biggest exporters are shifting from France and Belgium to Germany, Spain, and Italy

Within the EU, the member-state export picture has evolved substantially:

France lost over a third of its exports, and Belgium's exports collapsed by 81.7% — a drop from €96.1M to just €17.6M. Meanwhile, Germany consolidated its position as the EU's leading exporter (+35.8%), and Spain and Italy more than doubled theirs. This may reflect consolidation of production sites, shifts in multinational corporate strategies, or changes in re-export routing.

Price volatility is highest for emerging-market export partners

The volatility analysis reveals that EU export flows to certain partners are highly unstable. Brazil (CV = 0.97), the United Kingdom (0.50), and the Russian Federation (0.49) exhibit the highest coefficient-of-variation values on the export side. On the import side, Tunisia (CV = 0.92), Canada (0.81), and Indonesia (0.74) are the most volatile suppliers.

Detected price shocks include:

• Algeria (2022): An export price spike of +188.5% (abnormality score 141), likely reflecting supply disruptions or a shift to premium formulations in a small-volume market.
• China (2019): An export price increase of +200.7% (abnormality 55.5), possibly linked to regulatory tightening on chemical exports from China or a shift in product mix.
• Mexico (2020): A +66.8% price shift, potentially associated with COVID-19-related logistics disruptions.

The EU is transitioning from an export-dominant to a more balanced trade profile

The vulnerability indicators paint a clear picture of structural change. The EU's net import reliance — while still deeply negative, confirming the EU is a net exporter — moved from −5,365% to −144% over the period. This 97.3% change reflects a dramatic narrowing of the export surplus relative to domestic production. Export propensity (exports as a share of production) fell from 133% to 86% (−35.2%), and trade intensity declined from 125% to 89% (−28.3%).

The decline in export propensity is particularly noteworthy. In 2015, the EU exported more insecticide of this type (by value) than it produced domestically — a pattern consistent with significant re-export activity or inventory drawdown. By 2025, exports represent only 86% of production value, suggesting that a growing share of output is now absorbed by the domestic (intra-EU) market. This is consistent with rising demand for non-pyrethroid, non-organophosphate insecticide formulations within the EU, driven by tightening regulations on conventional active substances under Regulation (EC) No 1107/2009 and the Farm-to-Fork Strategy's pesticide-reduction targets.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in CN 38089190 insecticides has undergone a fundamental transformation. The EU remains a net exporter of these products, but its trade surplus is narrowing as export volumes decline and imports grow. Rising unit prices — up 56% on the export side — have masked a 34% drop in exported tonnage, indicating a shift toward higher-value formulations rather than volume-driven growth. The geographic landscape has been redrawn: Brazil has lost its dominance as an export destination, the United States and China have become the leading import suppliers, and Morocco has emerged as a fast-growing market. Within the EU, Germany has overtaken France as the leading exporter, while Belgium's role has diminished sharply. The concentration of trade partners has declined on both sides, improving supply-chain diversification. Looking ahead, the EU's transition toward more sustainable pest-management practices — favouring biological and novel-chemistry insecticides over conventional synthetic classes — is likely to continue reshaping both the volume and value dynamics of this product category, creating opportunities for innovation-driven European producers while intensifying competition from Asian suppliers.