Market evolution: Artificial graphite (CN 3801) — 2015–2025
Introduction
Customs code 3801 covers artificial graphite, colloidal or semi-colloidal graphite, and preparations based on graphite or other carbon in the form of pastes, blocks, plates, or other semi-manufactures. This product group has become strategically vital for the European Union: it serves as a critical input for lithium-ion battery anodes (sub-product 380110), electric arc furnace electrodes (380130), and various high-tech industrial applications (380190).
Over the period 2015–2025, the EU's external trade in CN 3801 underwent a profound structural transformation. What began as a near-balanced trade relationship — with imports and exports each around €158 million in 2015 — ended with a significant deficit, as imports reached €472.8 million against exports of €308.4 million in 2025. The trade balance swung from a peak surplus of approximately €211 million in 2018 to a trough deficit of roughly €641 million in 2023.
This report identifies and explains three main dynamics behind this transformation: (1) the structural reversal from surplus to deficit, (2) the growing concentration of import supply around China, and (3) the geographic and product-level reshaping of trade flows driven by the European battery manufacturing boom.
1. The Great Reversal: From Surplus to Deficit
1.1 The EU moved from a net exporter to a structurally dependent importer
The EU's trade balance in CN 3801 passed through four distinct phases over the decade:
| Year | Imports (€M) | Exports (€M) | Balance (€M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 157.2 | 158.9 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 143.6 | 193.9 | +50.3 |
| 2017 | 171.4 | 250.3 | +78.9 |
| 2018 | 240.2 | 451.4 | +211.3 |
| 2019 | 321.7 | 386.8 | +65.1 |
| 2020 | 430.7 | 252.2 | −178.4 |
| 2021 | 601.6 | 319.6 | −281.9 |
| 2022 | 945.5 | 440.9 | −504.6 |
| 2023 | 957.9 | 317.2 | −640.7 |
| 2024 | 667.8 | 292.2 | −375.6 |
| 2025 | 472.8 | 308.4 | −164.5 |
- 2015–2018 — Surplus phase. Exports grew faster than imports, culminating in a €211 million surplus in 2018, when EU export value peaked at €451 million.
- 2019–2020 — Crossover. Import growth accelerated while exports stalled. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 depressed exports to €252 million while imports continued climbing to €431 million, producing the first deficit (−€178 million).
- 2021–2023 — Deepening deficit. Imports surged to a peak of €958 million in 2023, driven by the energy crisis, stockpiling, and the battery ramp-up. The deficit reached −€641 million.
- 2024–2025 — Partial correction. Import values fell sharply (−51% from the 2023 peak) as prices normalised and destocking occurred, narrowing the deficit to −€164.5 million.
The net import reliance indicator captures this arc: it moved from −3.95% in 2015 (slight net exporter) to a peak of 50.46% before settling at 36.90% in 2025.
1.2 Import growth dramatically outpaced export growth
Over the full period, the asymmetry between import and export trajectories was stark:
| Metric | Imports 2015 | Imports 2025 | Δ | Exports 2015 | Exports 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value (€M) | 157.2 | 472.8 | +200.8% | 158.9 | 308.4 | +94.0% |
| Volume (t) | 89,760 | 170,949 | +90.5% | 67,692 | 105,833 | +56.3% |
| Price (€/t) | 1,751 | 2,766 | +57.9% | 2,347 | 2,913 | +24.1% |
Source: Trade overview
Import value tripled (+200.8%) while export value merely doubled (+94.0%). Import prices rose significantly faster than export prices (+57.9% vs. +24.1%), and the gap between the two narrowed considerably: the average import price in 2025 (€2,766/t) approached the export price (€2,913/t), a convergence that suggests either a shift toward higher-value imported material (battery-grade graphite) or erosion of the EU's traditional price premium.
1.3 The 2022–2023 price peak masked a lasting structural volume shift
Import values peaked at approximately €958 million in 2023 before falling to €473 million in 2025. This peak was driven by simultaneous volume and price effects:
- The dominant sub-product (380110, artificial graphite) saw import prices surge from €2,001/t in 2015 to a peak of €5,334/t in 2022, before falling back to €3,216/t in 2025.
- Import volumes for 380110 peaked at 154,971 tonnes in 2022 before declining to 117,375 tonnes in 2025.
The 2024–2025 correction is best understood as a normalisation rather than a structural reversal: even after the decline, 2025 import volumes remained nearly double their 2015 level, and the trade intensity remained high at 73.5%, barely changed from 74.7% in 2015. The underlying demand shift driven by battery manufacturing has not reversed.
2. China's Tightening Grip on EU Graphite Supply
2.1 China grew from a significant supplier to the overwhelmingly dominant one
The single most consequential development of the decade was the explosive growth of Chinese graphite exports to the EU:
| Partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change | 2025 Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 29.9 | 300.4 | +905.6% | ~63.5% |
| Japan | 25.8 | 38.0 | +47.7% | ~8.0% |
| United States | 30.5 | 36.2 | +18.7% | ~7.7% |
| Norway | 15.7 | 15.8 | +0.8% | ~3.3% |
| India | 13.4 | 10.3 | −23.6% | ~2.2% |
| United Kingdom | 12.3 | 8.2 | −33.2% | ~1.7% |
| Russian Federation | 3.3 | ~0 | −100.0% | ~0% |
China's share of EU graphite imports rose from approximately 19% in 2015 to 63.5% in 2025. At its peak (likely 2022–2023), Chinese imports reached approximately €752 million — dwarfing all other suppliers combined.
No other partner matched this trajectory. Japan and the United States recorded moderate growth but remained secondary suppliers. Norway, historically important due to its hydropower-based graphite production, was essentially flat. Russia's imports collapsed to near-zero by 2025 (from €3.3 million in 2015), a decline linked to EU sanctions imposed after 2022. India and the United Kingdom saw their shares decline in absolute terms.
2.2 Import concentration reached levels that signal strategic vulnerability
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU import concentration by value rose from 1,361 in 2015 to 4,227 in 2025 — an increase of 210.5%. An HHI above 2,500 is conventionally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market. The import HHI peaked even higher, at approximately 6,238, before partially declining.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import HHI (value) | 1,361 | 4,227 | +210.5% |
| Export HHI (value) | 1,059 | 1,471 | +38.9% |
By contrast, the export HHI remained moderate (rising from 1,059 to 1,471), indicating that EU exports remained well diversified across destination markets. This asymmetry — highly concentrated imports, diversified exports — represents a structural vulnerability: a disruption in Chinese supply would have cascading effects on EU downstream industries, particularly battery cell manufacturing.
2.3 Price volatility and supply shocks highlight the risks of dependency
Volatility analysis confirms that Chinese import flows were among the most volatile in the dataset, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.60 — comparable to Russia (0.60) and well above more stable suppliers like India (0.22) or Norway (0.27).
Three major supply shock events were detected during the period:
| Event | Year | Flow | Price Shift | Value Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 2019 | Imports | +203.5% | 72.2% |
| Norway | 2022 | Imports | +76.3% | 4.4% |
| Mexico | 2022 | Exports | +56.0% | 6.2% |
The 2019 China shock was by far the most consequential: with a 203.5% price shift affecting 72.2% of import value, it marked the inflection point when battery-grade graphite demand began to overwhelm existing supply chains. This event preceded the broader 2020–2023 price surge and likely reflected China's early pricing leverage over a rapidly tightening market. The Norway and Mexico shocks in 2022 coincided with the European energy crisis and affected smaller but still meaningful trade shares.
3. Battery Gigafactories Reshape the EU's Graphite Geography
3.1 Central Europe became the EU's primary graphite import hub
Within the EU, the geography of graphite imports was redrawn by the battery manufacturing boom. Poland and Hungary — both hosts to major lithium-ion battery gigafactory investments — saw their CN 3801 imports grow at extraordinary rates:
| EU Member State | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hungary | 0.5 | 170.6 | +31,375% |
| Poland | 3.8 | 106.6 | +2,691% |
| Germany | 42.9 | 66.8 | +55.7% |
| Netherlands | 17.5 | 35.2 | +101.1% |
| France | 26.4 | 30.9 | +17.3% |
| Italy | 15.7 | 19.1 | +21.6% |
| Belgium | 17.2 | 13.4 | −22.0% |
Hungary's imports grew from €0.5 million to €170.6 million — a 31,375% increase — making it the EU's largest single importer of CN 3801 by 2025. Poland followed at €106.6 million (+2,691%). Together, these two Central European countries absorbed approximately €277 million, or roughly 59% of total EU imports.
This pattern is a direct consequence of the localisation of battery cell production in Central Europe, where companies such as LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and SK Innovation established large-scale gigafactory capacity to serve European automotive OEMs. Artificial graphite is the dominant anode material in lithium-ion batteries, and its procurement follows the cell manufacturing footprint. Meanwhile, traditional industrial importers like Germany, France, and Belgium grew much more slowly or even declined, reflecting a geographic shift in demand gravity from Western to Central Europe.
3.2 Product segments reflect the battery-driven transformation
The product segment breakdown reveals which sub-products drove the import surge:
Import volumes by sub-product:
| Code | Description | 2015 (t) | 2025 (t) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 380110 | Artificial graphite | 58,280 | 117,375 | +101.4% |
| 380190 | Preparations (pastes, blocks, plates) | 12,991 | 44,757 | +244.5% |
| 380130 | Carbonaceous pastes for electrodes | 18,238 | 8,011 | −56.1% |
| 380120 | Colloidal or semi-colloidal graphite | 250 | 806 | +222.0% |
Sub-product 380110 (artificial graphite) dominated, doubling its import volume. However, the fastest-growing segment was 380190 (preparations based on graphite or other carbon), which surged by 244.5% — from 12,991 to 44,757 tonnes. This category encompasses processed and semi-manufactured graphite products increasingly used in battery cell production and other advanced applications.
Conversely, 380130 (carbonaceous pastes for electrodes and furnace linings) declined by 56.1% in import volume. This reflects the EU's existing domestic capacity in electrode paste production, linked to its steel industry. Indeed, EU export volumes of 380130 remained essentially flat (41,968 tonnes in 2015 vs. 41,677 tonnes in 2025), though their value grew by 75.3% (from €32.0 million to €56.0 million) due to rising prices. The EU thus maintained its competitive position in electrode pastes while becoming increasingly dependent on imports for raw and processed battery-grade graphite.
3.3 EU production expanded but export orientation declined
EU domestic production of CN 3801 grew substantially over the period: production value rose from €203.9 million in 2015 to €635.5 million in 2025 (+211.7%), while production volume increased from 83.3 million kg to 107.7 million kg (+29.3%). The much faster growth in value relative to volume points to significant price inflation in domestically produced graphite. Production volume peaked at approximately 205 million kg at some point during the period — nearly 2.5 times the 2015 level — before declining, suggesting that EU producers expanded capacity during the boom but subsequently adjusted downward.
Specialisation data for 2025 shows that France (RCA: 2.53, RSCA: 0.43) and Austria (RCA: 2.50, RSCA: 0.43) hold the strongest revealed comparative advantages in graphite production, followed by Germany (RCA: 1.53) and Hungary (RCA: 1.13). Hungary's emergence as a specialised producer is notable and consistent with its role as a battery manufacturing hub.
Despite growing production, the EU's export propensity — the share of output that is exported — declined from 60.4% to 45.8%. This suggests that an increasing share of EU-produced graphite is now absorbed domestically by battery cell manufacturers and other downstream industries, rather than being exported to third markets.
On the export destination side, the United States became the EU's largest market, growing from €15.7 million to €98.6 million (+529.8%). Emerging markets also expanded significantly: Brazil (+548.6%), Mexico (+234.6%), India (+127.0%), and Türkiye (+94.7%). This diversification of export destinations partially offset the structural decline in the trade balance, though it was insufficient to match the scale of import growth.
Conclusion
The decade 2015–2025 witnessed a fundamental restructuring of the EU's external trade in artificial graphite and related products (CN 3801). Three interconnected dynamics stand out:
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The trade balance reversed sharply, moving from a modest surplus of €1.7 million in 2015 to a deficit of €164.5 million in 2025, after reaching a trough of −€641 million in 2023. Import value grew by 200.8% while export value grew by only 94.0%.
-
China consolidated its position as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, growing from 19% to over 63% of EU import value (+905.6% in absolute terms). The import concentration HHI more than tripled, reaching levels that conventionally signal high market concentration and strategic dependency.
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The European battery gigafactory boom reshaped internal trade geography, with Hungary and Poland emerging as the EU's largest graphite importers — a direct consequence of massive investments in lithium-ion battery cell production in Central Europe.
The partial recovery observed in 2024–2025 — with the deficit narrowing from its 2023 peak — reflects price normalisation and destocking rather than a structural correction of the EU's import dependency. With net import reliance still at 36.9% and China controlling nearly two-thirds of import supply, the EU's strategic exposure to single-source risk in this critical material remains a pressing concern for industrial and trade policy.