Market evolution: Welding and soldering preparations (CN 3810) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in CN 3810 — a category covering pickling preparations for metal surfaces, fluxes and auxiliary preparations for soldering, brazing or welding, as well as welding pastes and powders. The product group straddles the chemical and metalworking industries and is closely tied to construction, automotive, shipbuilding and heavy manufacturing activity. Over the 2015–2025 period, EU trade in this category has been shaped by three major dynamics: a pronounced shift from volume-driven to price-driven growth, a dramatic reorientation of trade partners following geopolitical upheaval, and the rising role of Central and Eastern European member states in both production and exports. Despite maintaining a comfortable trade surplus throughout, the EU's position has evolved considerably in structure.

Overview of CN 3810 trade

1. Rising values, falling volumes: a decade of price-driven growth

1.1 Exports grew in value but shrank in volume

The EU's extra-EU exports of CN 3810 rose from €187.5 million in 2015 to €225.5 million in 2025, a gain of 20.2%. Over the same period, however, exported tonnage fell from 83,795 tonnes to 70,499 tonnes (−15.9%). This divergence is fully explained by a sharp increase in average unit export prices, which climbed from €2,238/t to €3,198/t (+42.9%). In other words, the EU is exporting less product at significantly higher prices — a pattern consistent with a shift toward higher-value formulations, inflationary cost pass-through, and possibly a move up the value chain.

1.2 Imports grew even faster, driven by both volume and price

EU imports expanded from €70.5 million to €111.2 million (+57.7%), a substantially faster growth rate than exports. Unlike exports, import growth was driven by both a volume increase (7,379 t → 10,035 t, +36.0%) and a moderate price increase (€9,550/t → €11,067/t, +15.9%). Notably, import unit values have consistently been three to four times higher than export unit values, indicating that the EU imports more specialised, higher-priced preparations while exporting higher-volume, lower-priced fluxes and auxiliary products.

1.3 The trade surplus narrowed marginally but the EU remains a strong net exporter

The EU's trade surplus in CN 3810 was €117.0 million in 2015 and €114.3 million in 2025, a marginal decline of 2.3%. Despite faster import growth, the large baseline surplus ensured the EU maintained its net exporter status throughout. Indeed, the net import reliance metric moved from −14.8% to −36.6%, reflecting a deepening of the EU's net export position when assessed against total production — a consequence of the 97% surge in domestic production value over the period.

1.4 Product sub-segments show divergent trends

The two sub-headings within CN 3810 followed markedly different trajectories:

The sub-heading 381010 accounts for a disproportionately large share of trade value relative to its tonnage. Its import price of €25,549/t in 2025 (up from €12,381/t in 2015) suggests the EU sources highly specialised or niche formulations — possibly advanced soldering pastes or proprietary surface treatment preparations — at premium prices. Meanwhile, the doubling of 381090 import volumes signals growing inbound demand for fluxes, possibly reflecting supply chain shifts or new manufacturing capacity within the EU requiring imported inputs.

Product segment comparison

2. A partner landscape reshaped by geopolitics and emerging-market demand

2.1 Russia's complete disappearance from EU exports

The most dramatic partner-level development was the collapse of EU exports to the Russian Federation. From €10.4 million in 2015 (and a peak of €12.2 million), exports fell to just €44 in 2025 — a functionally complete elimination reflecting EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This represented the loss of a top-five export destination and created a need to redirect volumes and find alternative markets.

2.2 Emerging markets absorbed the redirected capacity

Several fast-growing markets more than compensated for the loss of Russia:

India and Saudi Arabia stand out: both roughly tripled their intake of EU-origin CN 3810 products. This is consistent with India's expanding manufacturing and infrastructure base (including major shipbuilding and automotive investments) and Saudi Arabia's large-scale construction and industrial diversification under its Vision 2030 programme. China remained the single largest export destination at €32.2 million, confirming its role as a major consumer of EU-produced welding and surface treatment chemicals.

Export partners

2.3 The United States became the fastest-growing import source

On the import side, the United States saw the most striking growth: EU imports from the US surged from €7.8 million to €18.0 million (+132.1%), making it the third-largest supplier. Other notable developments include:

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest single import source at €35.2 million, reflecting deep supply-chain integration that has survived (and in some areas been complicated by) Brexit. Japan, traditionally strong in specialised welding consumables, also grew steadily.

2.4 Import concentration declined as sources diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 2,303 to 1,832 (−20.4%), and by volume from 1,840 to 1,284 (−30.2%). Both values indicate a move from a moderately concentrated import structure toward greater diversification. This is a positive development from a supply security standpoint, reducing the EU's exposure to disruption from any single source. By contrast, export HHI remained low and broadly stable (662 → 616), reflecting the EU's already well-diversified customer base.

Import concentration

3. Central and Eastern Europe: the emerging production and export engine

3.1 EU production value nearly doubled while volumes grew modestly

According to PRODCOM production data, EU domestic production of CN 3810 rose from €249.9 million to €492.2 million (+97.0%) in value, while physical output increased more modestly from 150,000 tonnes to 167,348 tonnes (+11.6%). This mirrors the external trade pattern: production growth has been overwhelmingly price-driven. The near-doubling of production value with only a modest volume increase points to significant input cost inflation (raw materials, energy) being passed through to end prices, as well as a compositional shift toward higher-value product formulations.

3.2 Germany dominates but Central European members are the fastest movers

Germany remained the EU's largest exporter of CN 3810 products by far, with exports rising from €68.6 million to €88.2 million (+28.5%) — accounting for roughly 39% of total EU extra-EU exports in 2025. France, traditionally the second-largest exporter, saw a slight decline (€48.2M → €43.5M, −9.9%).

The most dynamic growth, however, came from Central and Eastern European (CEE) member states:

On the import side, several CEE countries showed explosive growth in intra-EU and extra-EU procurement:

EU reporters

3.3 Revealed comparative advantage confirms CEE specialisation

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that the most specialised EU exporters in CN 3810 are overwhelmingly located in Central and Eastern Europe:

Romania, Hungary and Czechia all exhibit strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 2.5), meaning their share of CN 3810 in total exports far exceeds the EU average. This aligns with the broader pattern of CEE countries developing specialised chemical and metalworking supply chains serving European manufacturing, particularly in the automotive sector where welding consumables are critical inputs.

3.4 Trade intensity and export propensity both increased

The EU's trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) rose from 48.7% to 57.8%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 36.6% to 48.6%. The sector has become more internationally oriented over the decade, with a growing share of EU output finding customers outside the bloc. This heightened openness, while a sign of competitiveness, also implies greater exposure to external demand fluctuations and trade policy risks.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 3810 over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural transformation beneath a surface of apparent stability. The aggregate trade surplus remained broadly intact at around €114 million, but this masks profound shifts. Export volumes declined by 16% while values rose by 20%, driven almost entirely by price increases. Imports grew much faster (+58% in value), particularly from the United States, Japan, and increasingly from Türkiye and China. Geopolitics left a visible mark: the complete cessation of exports to Russia following 2022 sanctions removed a €10+ million annual market, with emerging economies — notably India and Saudi Arabia — absorbing the redirected capacity. Within the EU, Central and Eastern European member states have emerged as the most specialised and fastest-growing players, with Czechia, Poland and Romania building strong competitive positions in this niche. Meanwhile, EU domestic production nearly doubled in value, reflecting both cost inflation and a move toward higher-margin products. Looking ahead, the combination of growing export openness, moderately diversified import sources, and a strong CEE production base positions the EU relatively well, though the heavy price component of growth warrants monitoring for competitiveness against lower-cost Asian producers.