Market evolution: Refractory cements and concretes (CN 3816) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in refractory cements, mortars, concretes and similar compositions (Combined Nomenclature code 3816) over the period 2015–2025. Refractory cements are critical inputs for high-temperature industrial processes — from steel and cement production to glass manufacturing and petrochemicals — and their trade patterns therefore reflect broader shifts in European industrial competitiveness, geopolitical realignment, and cost pressures. The EU has consistently maintained a substantial trade surplus in this product category, and over the decade this surplus has deepened. At the same time, the composition of trade partners has shifted markedly, unit prices have diverged between exports and imports, and several supply shocks have punctuated the period. The following sections analyse these dynamics in detail.

A Widening Surplus Driven by Rising Export Prices

Export value grew while volumes declined, signalling a price-driven expansion

Between 2015 and 2025, EU extra-EU exports of CN 3816 rose in value from €513.0 million to €571.6 million (+11.4%), yet the exported quantity simultaneously fell from 835,448 tonnes to 723,239 tonnes (−13.4%). This divergence is explained by a sharp increase in average export unit prices, which climbed from €614/t to €790/t (+28.7%). The value peaked at €704.0 million at some point during the period, indicating that the most recent year saw some moderation from that high. The data thus shows that the EU's refractory cements sector has increasingly competed on value rather than volume, consistent with a shift toward higher-grade or more specialised refractory products. For more detail, see the trade overview.

Imports grew in volume but not proportionally in value

On the import side, the trajectory was quite different. Import volumes rose from 101,679 tonnes to 123,717 tonnes (+21.7%), while import value edged up more modestly from €109.7 million to €118.3 million (+7.9%). Crucially, average import unit prices declined from €1,079/t to €957/t (−11.3%), falling as low as €777/t during the period. This suggests that the EU has increasingly sourced lower-priced refractory materials from abroad — potentially from lower-cost producers in Asia — while exporting higher-value products. The structural price gap between exports (€790/t) and imports (€957/t) in the most recent year, though narrower than at the start of the period, still indicates that imported volumes tend to be specialised or niche products commanding premium prices (e.g., from Japan).

The trade balance remained strongly positive and widened overall

The EU's trade surplus in CN 3816 grew from €403.3 million to €453.2 million (+12.4%), having reached a peak of €576.0 million at one point during the decade. The net import reliance metric confirms this structural advantage: it shifted from −15.7% to −45.3%, meaning the EU has become substantially more of a net exporter in this product. The export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — rose from 23.0% to 37.9%, while trade intensity (total extra-EU trade as a share of production) increased from 29.7% to 41.9%.

Geopolitical Reorientation and Diversification of Trade Partners

The collapse of EU–Russia trade in refractory cements was the most dramatic partner shift

The most striking change in the EU's trade geography was the near-total disappearance of exports to the Russian Federation. In 2015, Russia was the EU's single largest extra-EU export destination for CN 3816, absorbing €97.4 million worth of shipments. By 2025, exports to Russia had fallen to just €487,721 — a collapse of 99.5%. This extraordinary decline is almost certainly linked to the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, compounded by the broader deterioration of EU–Russia economic relations from 2014 onwards. The volatility data confirms Russia's highly volatile export coefficient (CV = 0.53), consistent with a market that underwent a structural break rather than gradual decline.

Turkish and other emerging markets absorbed much of the redirected export capacity

The loss of the Russian market was offset by significant growth in exports to other destinations. Exports to Türkiye rose from €33.5 million to €55.9 million (+66.6%), making it the EU's top export partner by 2025. Exports to the United States grew from €29.5 million to €51.6 million (+74.7%), while shipments to Morocco surged from €5.7 million to €18.0 million (+216.7%). India also grew as a destination, rising from €30.7 million to €39.1 million (+27.3%). The United Kingdom, despite Brexit, remained a significant market, with exports growing from €20.9 million to €31.1 million (+48.8%). This geographic diversification is also reflected in the decline of the export concentration HHI, which fell from 624 to 413 (−33.8%), indicating a more balanced and less concentrated export portfolio.

Import sources also diversified, with Japan and China gaining share

On the import side, the United Kingdom remained the largest single source but declined from €57.1 million to €43.2 million (−24.2%). Japan more than doubled its share, rising from €18.7 million to €32.2 million (+71.5%), reflecting the EU's continued appetite for high-quality Japanese refractory products. China's share more than doubled as well, from €6.0 million to €12.5 million (+109.4%), consistent with the broader trend of Chinese penetration into European industrial supply chains. The import concentration HHI fell from 3,215 to 2,330 (−27.5%), indicating that import sourcing has also become less reliant on any single dominant supplier.

Price Shocks, Volatility, and Industrial Restructuring

The 2021–2022 period saw major price shocks linked to energy costs and supply disruption

The supply shock analysis identifies three notable shock events. The most severe was a price shock in EU imports from Japan centred on 2022, with an abnormality score of 81.0 and a price shift of +1,522.5%. Given that Japan accounts for a significant share of EU imports by value (28.9% in the shock year), this event likely reflects a combination of post-pandemic supply bottlenecks, surging energy costs in Japan, and possibly exchange rate effects (the yen depreciated sharply in 2022). A second shock affected EU exports to Serbia in 2022 (price abnormality of 289.5, shift of +52.7%), though Serbia's overall value share was modest at 2.2%. A third shock hit EU export prices to Türkiye in 2021 (abnormality 30.4, price shift +106.9%), coinciding with the onset of the European energy crisis that heavily impacted energy-intensive industries such as refractory production.

Germany, Austria, and Spain anchored EU production and exports

Among EU Member States, Germany and Austria were the dominant exporters throughout the period. Germany's exports remained broadly stable, moving from €130.8 million to €136.2 million (+4.1%), while Austria's were essentially flat at around €137–138 million. Spain emerged as a strong growth story, with exports rising from €54.9 million to €83.9 million (+52.8%). The Netherlands also saw remarkable export growth, from €17.5 million to €41.6 million (+138.3%), potentially reflecting its role as a re-export and logistics hub. Slovenia, despite having the highest revealed comparative advantage in the EU (RSCA = 0.69), saw its exports decline from €25.5 million to €12.6 million (−50.7%), suggesting some loss of competitive position.

EU production volumes and values diverged, pointing to price inflation in the sector

EU domestic production of CN 3816 (measured via Prodcom) grew modestly in volume from 2.56 billion kg to 2.82 billion kg (+10.1%), but production value surged from €797 million to €1.68 billion (+110.8%). This near-doubling of production value with only a modest volume increase implies a dramatic rise in domestic output prices — consistent with the energy cost inflation that hit energy-intensive industries particularly hard during the 2021–2023 period, as well as with a possible shift toward higher-value refractory compositions.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's refractory cements and concretes sector has undergone a significant transformation. The EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with the trade surplus growing to €453 million and export propensity rising to nearly 38% of production. This expansion was price-driven rather than volume-driven: export quantities actually declined by 13% while unit prices rose by 29%, reflecting both inflationary pressures (notably from energy costs) and a probable shift toward higher-value product mixes. The most dramatic structural shift was the near-total loss of the Russian export market (−99.5%), which was more than compensated by growth in exports to Türkiye, the United States, Morocco, and the United Kingdom. On the import side, Japan and China gained ground while the UK's share declined. Several severe price shocks in 2021–2022 underscore the sector's sensitivity to energy costs and supply chain disruptions. Going forward, the sector's strong export orientation and diversified partner base provide resilience, but continued dependence on energy-intensive production processes leaves it exposed to European energy price dynamics and global competition from lower-cost producers.