Market evolution: Explosives and pyrotechnics (CN 36) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in goods classified under customs code 36, encompassing explosives, pyrotechnic products, matches, pyrophoric alloys, and certain combustible preparations, over the 2015–2025 period. The analysis reveals a market characterized by robust growth in trade value, a significant divergence between value and quantity trends, and notable shifts in trade partners and product composition. The EU has transitioned from a slight net exporter to a marginal net importer in value terms, driven by a combination of rising global prices, geopolitical realignments, and strong demand in specific sub-sectors. The overall trade data forms the foundation for this analysis.

1. A Decade of Strong Value Growth Amidst Quantity Stagnation

The 2015–2025 period witnessed a dramatic appreciation in the total value of EU trade in CN 36 products, underpinned by significant price inflation across most segments. Growth in traded volumes, however, was far more modest, indicating that the expansion was primarily price-led.

1.1 Export Performance: High-Value Growth, Steady Volumes

EU exports of explosives and pyrotechnics more than doubled in value, increasing by 120.0% from €571.4 million in 2015 to €1.257 billion in 2025. In stark contrast, the quantity exported grew by only 2.3%, from 69,883 tonnes to 71,505 tonnes. This divergence is reflected in the export price, which rose by 115.1% over the same period. The peak export value of €1.257 billion was reached in 2025, while the quantity peak occurred in a different year (2022 at 336,433 tonnes), highlighting volatility in physical shipments not mirrored in value terms. Key export destinations like the United States and the United Kingdom saw substantial value growth (+72.7% and +105.8%, respectively), mirroring the overall price trend.

1.2 Import Dynamics: Accelerating Value and Volume Growth

Imports followed a similar but more pronounced upward trajectory. The value of EU imports surged by 152.0%, from €508.2 million to €1.281 billion. Notably, import quantity also saw significant growth of 27.0%, rising from 144,700 tonnes to 183,816 tonnes. The import price nearly doubled, increasing by 98.5%. This combination of strong value and quantity growth points to a broadening demand for these products within the EU market and possibly increased reliance on external suppliers for certain commodities. China remained the largest source of imports by value, growing by 56.1% to €403 million, while imports from Serbia and India exploded by 576.0% and 693.1%, respectively.

1.3 Shifting Trade Balance and Market Concentration

The EU's trade balance for CN 36 products deteriorated over the decade, moving from a surplus of €63.2 million in 2015 to a deficit of €23.6 million in 2025. This shift was driven by imports growing faster than exports in value terms. Concurrently, the concentration of imports (measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, HHI) decreased by 38.8%, indicating diversification away from a few dominant suppliers. In contrast, the concentration of export markets remained relatively stable (HHI change of -5.2%), suggesting the EU maintained a broad customer base.

2. Product Segment Analysis: Divergent Performances and Price Surges

The broad CN 36 category masks significant heterogeneity at the product level. The performance of individual sub-segments over the period varied dramatically, with some experiencing explosive value growth driven by extraordinary price increases.

2.1 Propellent Powders (3601) and Prepared Explosives (3602): The Price Shock

These segments were the epicenters of the price surge. Import values for propellent powders (3601) grew by an astonishing 370% (from €60.8m to €286.0m) while import quantity roughly doubled. The import price per tonne skyrocketed from €18,673 to €43,746. Export prices for the same product followed a similar, albeit slightly less extreme, path, rising from €16,039 to €47,164 per tonne. For prepared explosives (3602), import values grew by 316% with a per-tonne price increase from €3,741 to €10,254. These pronounced price hikes across both imports and exports suggest a global supply-demand imbalance, likely linked to increased global demand for industrial and mining explosives, and potentially geopolitical factors affecting raw material costs and supply chains.

2.2 Fireworks and Pyrotechnic Articles (3604): Pandemic-Induced Volatility

The largest segment by import volume, fireworks (3604), displayed high volatility tied to public health measures. Import quantities plummeted by over 65% from 95,882 tonnes in 2015 to just 33,394 tonnes in 2021, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on public celebrations and events. By 2025, volume had recovered strongly to 128,125 tonnes, exceeding the 2015 level. Despite the volume recovery, import values in 2025 (€424.5m) were only 56% above 2015 levels, indicating lower average prices post-pandemic. The segment's share of total import value declined over the period.

2.3 Detonating Caps and Fuses (3603): Steady High-Value Trade

Trade in safety fuses, detonating caps, and igniters (3603) was characterized by high unit values and relatively stable quantities. This segment consistently represented the highest average trade price per tonne among CN 36 sub-categories. EU exports of these articles grew steadily, with value increasing by 127% (from €236.0m to €535.6m) while quantity grew by 76%. This suggests strong, stable demand for these specialized initiation systems, possibly linked to ongoing mining and construction activities globally.

3. Geographic Shifts: Diversifying Partners and the Rise of Eastern Europe

The geographic landscape of EU trade in CN 36 underwent significant realignment, with traditional partners maintaining dominance while several emerging economies saw explosive growth in trade shares.

3.1 Import Origins: The Rise of Serbia, India, and Türkiye

While China remained the top importer, its share of total EU import value decreased from 50.8% in 2015 to 31.5% in 2025. The most dramatic shifts came from Serbia and India, whose shares grew from negligible levels to 4.0% and 2.8%, respectively. Türkiye also significantly increased its presence. Conversely, imports from the Russian Federation collapsed, falling by 99.3% to just €21,307 by 2025, likely reflecting sanctions and geopolitical realignment.

3.2 Export Destinations: Consolidation Around the US, UK, and Switzerland

EU exports remained heavily focused on a few high-value markets. The United States consolidated its position as the top destination, accounting for 15.4% of exports in 2025. The United Kingdom (9.1%) and Switzerland (3.2%) were also key partners. A notable trend was the growth in exports to countries and territories "not specified for commercial or military reasons," which grew by 161.6%, potentially indicating increased trade with conflict zones or for sensitive end-uses.

3.3 Internal EU Production and Specialisation

Within the EU, production volumes of CN 36 items (measured in number of items) declined by 9.4% from 2015 to 2025, while production value increased by 32.9%, again indicating a price-value effect. In terms of export specialisation, Czechia and France were among the most specialised exporters within the EU, maintaining high Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) scores. On the import side, member states like Bulgaria and Czechia saw enormous increases in their import shares, reflecting possibly strategic stockpiling or shifts in domestic demand.

Conclusion

The EU market for explosives and pyrotechnics (CN 36) expanded dramatically in value terms between 2015 and 2025, though this growth was largely propelled by significant price inflation, particularly in propellent powders and prepared explosives, rather than proportional volume increases. The sector demonstrated resilience, with trade volumes in key segments like fireworks recovering strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic trough. Geopolitical shifts are evident in trade flows, with a collapse in imports from Russia coinciding with the rapid rise of suppliers like Serbia and India. The EU's overall trade position weakened slightly, moving into a small deficit, as import value growth outpaced exports. This decade of transformation underscores the sector's sensitivity to global supply chain dynamics, raw material costs, and geopolitical realignments, setting a complex stage for its future trajectory.