Market evolution: Matches (CN 3605) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of the European Union in matches (customs code 3605, excluding pyrotechnic articles) over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a market undergoing profound structural transformation: EU domestic production has collapsed, import dependence has surged, and the traditional trade surplus has flipped into a significant deficit. These shifts reflect broader changes in global manufacturing competitiveness, supply chain reorientation, and the gradual industrial decline of a mature consumer product within the EU.

1. The Collapse of EU Match Production and the Shift to Import Dependence

EU production has contracted dramatically over the decade

The most striking feature of the EU match market is the near-total erosion of domestic manufacturing capacity. Production volumes fell from 34,454 tonnes in 2015 to just 5,320 tonnes in 2025 — a decline of 84.6%. Production value contracted similarly, from €81.6 million to €28.8 million (−64.7%). This indicates that the EU has effectively ceased to be a significant producer of matches, with only a handful of specialised producers remaining.

The trade balance has inverted from surplus to deficit

As domestic production collapsed, the EU's trade balance reversed sharply. In 2015, the EU enjoyed a surplus of €10.1 million; by 2025, this had become a deficit of €37.5 million — a swing of nearly €48 million. This transformation is driven by a combination of declining exports and surging import values, even as import volumes have actually fallen.

Trade intensity has doubled, confirming the sector's integration into global supply chains

The trade intensity of the EU match market rose from 35.6% to 68.6% over the period — an increase of 92.9%. This doubling confirms that matches are no longer a product primarily manufactured and consumed within Europe, but rather one increasingly shaped by international trade flows.

2. The Turkish Import Surge and the Reconfiguration of EU Supply Sources

Imports from Türkiye have grown exponentially, driven by a single EU Member State

The most dramatic shift in import origins has been the rise of Türkiye. Turkish imports surged from €1.1 million in 2015 to €41.9 million in 2025 — an increase of 3,734%. This growth was almost entirely channelled through Slovenia, whose imports jumped from €28,328 to €40.3 million, a 142,162% increase. Slovenia's specialisation index (RSCA of 0.97) confirms that it has become the EU's primary entry point for Turkish matches, likely reflecting the operations of a major distributor or re-export hub.

Source: Top partners by value — imports

Traditional Asian suppliers have remained stable but have lost relative market share

India and China have continued to supply the EU market, with India maintaining volumes around €3–5 million and China similarly stable. However, their relative share has been dramatically diluted by the Turkish surge. India's coefficient of variation (0.23) suggests moderate volatility, and a price shock detected in 2022 — with an abnormality score of 17.1 and a shift of 15.6% — affected 52.2% of import value, possibly linked to energy cost spikes or logistics disruptions in the post-pandemic period.

Russian imports have virtually disappeared following geopolitical sanctions

Imports from the Russian Federation collapsed from €459,177 to just €599 (−99.9%). This near-total cessation aligns with the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russian matches had already shown high volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.70), suggesting that the trade relationship was structurally fragile even before the sanctions.

3. Export Decline, Rising Unit Values, and Shifting Destination Markets

EU export volumes have halved, but unit values have risen sharply

EU exports of matches fell from 5,861 tonnes to 2,584 tonnes (−55.9%), while export value declined from €20.9 million to €14.1 million (−32.5%). Crucially, the average export price rose from €3,566/t to €5,462/t (+53.2%). This pattern suggests that the EU is increasingly exporting only higher-value or niche products — such as premium safety matches or specialised industrial matches — while losing competitiveness in standard, mass-market segments.

Sweden remains the dominant EU exporter, but its position is weakening

Sweden has historically been the EU's largest exporter of matches, accounting for €17.6 million in 2015. By 2025, this had fallen to €10.6 million (−39.7%). Sweden's specialisation index (RSCA of 0.72) confirms a strong comparative advantage, but the declining volumes suggest that even this stronghold is under pressure. Germany, by contrast, has more than doubled its exports (from €792,209 to €1.7 million, +112.4%), potentially reflecting re-export activity through its logistics hubs.

African markets remain important but have become more volatile

The EU's traditional export markets in West Africa — Senegal, Guinea, Ghana, and Gambia — have shown mixed performance. Guinea has been relatively stable (CV of 0.11), while Senegal (CV of 0.67) and Gambia (CV of 0.68) have experienced significant volatility. Exports to Gambia collapsed from €170,523 to just €156 (−99.9%), while Egypt — once a major destination at €3.0 million — fell to €613,468 (−79.5%). These declines may reflect local market saturation, competition from Asian suppliers, or currency and economic instability in destination countries.

Import concentration has increased dramatically, heightening supply chain vulnerability

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports rose from 2,171 to 6,699 (+208.6%). An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market; at 6,699, the EU match import market is now extremely concentrated. This is primarily driven by the dominance of Turkish supply channelled through Slovenia. By contrast, export concentration remained relatively low (HHI of 940), reflecting a more diversified set of destination markets.

Conclusion

The EU match market has undergone a fundamental structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production has collapsed by over 84% in volume terms, turning the EU from a net exporter into a significant net importer. This shift has been accompanied by a dramatic reorientation of supply chains: Türkiye, acting through Slovenia, has become the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, while traditional sources in Asia have stagnated and Russian imports have been eliminated by sanctions.

The market now exhibits significantly higher import concentration (HHI at 6,699) and trade intensity (68.6%), indicating both greater integration into global trade and heightened vulnerability to supply disruptions. The rising unit values of EU exports suggest a retreat toward niche, premium segments — a classic pattern of deindustrialisation for a mature consumer product.

Looking ahead, the extreme concentration of imports in a single corridor (Türkiye → Slovenia) represents a key strategic vulnerability. Any disruption to this supply chain — whether from geopolitical tensions, logistics failures, or Turkish economic instability — could rapidly affect EU market supply. Policymakers and industry stakeholders may wish to consider diversification strategies, while acknowledging that the economics of match manufacturing have fundamentally shifted away from the EU.