Market evolution: Inorganic chemicals (CN 28) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's extra-EU trade in inorganic chemicals and related compounds (Combined Nomenclature heading 28) over the period 2015–2025. CN 28 is an extremely broad product category encompassing hundreds of sub-headings — from basic industrial chemicals such as sulphuric acid, caustic soda, and carbonates, to high-value specialties including rare-earth compounds, precious-metal salts, and radioactive isotopes (Scope & Definitions). The decade under review was marked by significant structural shifts: a global energy crisis, geopolitical realignments in supply chains, and a decisive move by the EU toward greater chemical self-sufficiency. The analysis draws on trade-flow, price, concentration, and vulnerability indicators to identify the main dynamics shaping this market.

1. A market transformed by rising prices and shrinking volumes

1.1 Export values surged while volumes contracted

The most striking feature of the period is the divergence between value and quantity trends on the export side. EU exports of CN 28 to non-EU countries rose from €10.96 billion in 2015 to €18.18 billion in 2025, a gain of +65.9% in value terms. Over the same span, export volumes actually fell from 15.92 million tonnes to 14.77 million tonnes (−7.2%). The resolution lies in unit values: average export prices climbed from €688/t to €1,230/t (+78.8%), indicating a decisive shift toward higher-value-added products and/or a broad repricing of chemical commodities (General Overview).

1.2 Imports followed a similar price-driven pattern

EU imports grew from €13.41 billion to €19.61 billion (+46.3%), but quantities barely budged — rising only 2.6% from 15.15 million tonnes to 15.54 million tonnes. Import unit values therefore increased from €885/t to €1,262/t (+42.6%). The trade deficit narrowed from −€2.45 billion in 2015 to −€1.43 billion in 2025, an improvement of 41.7%, having reached its widest point at −€6.71 billion in 2022 during the energy-price spike (General Overview).

1.3 The 2022 energy crisis left a deep but temporary price mark

The year 2022 stands out as an inflection point across nearly every product segment. Import prices for ammonia (CN 2814) spiked from €455/t in 2021 to €1,098/t in 2022 before retreating to €467/t by 2025. Carbon black (CN 2803) import prices surged from €949/t to €1,681/t. Caustic soda (CN 2815) prices more than doubled from €203/t to €503/t. The pattern — a sharp spike followed by partial normalisation — is consistent with the EU's acute dependence on natural gas for chemical production, which was disrupted by the Russian supply curtailment in 2022 (Product Segment Breakdown).

2. Geopolitical realignment of supply and demand partners

2.1 Russia's role as an import supplier collapsed

The most dramatic partner-level shift concerns the Russian Federation. Russian imports of CN 28 into the EU fell from €2.06 billion in 2015 to €1.03 billion in 2025, a decline of −50.0%. Russia was the EU's single largest supplier in 2015 but had fallen to second place by 2025, overtaken by China. The contraction accelerated from 2021 onwards, consistent with the EU's progressive sanctions and import diversification strategies following Russia's invasion of Ukraine (General Overview).

2.2 China and Türkiye filled the gap

China nearly doubled its CN 28 exports to the EU, growing from €1.19 billion to €2.37 billion (+98.0%), while Türkiye surged by +158.8% from €0.38 billion to €0.97 billion. Together, these two suppliers absorbed much of the market share vacated by Russia. The United States remained a major and stable supplier (+31.0%), while Norway — a key source of energy-intensive chemicals such as ammonia and nitrates — held roughly flat at around €0.69 billion (General Overview).

2.3 The United States became the EU's top export destination

On the export side, the United States emerged as the EU's largest single market, with shipments rising from €1.77 billion to €4.04 billion (+128.1%). The United Kingdom also grew strongly (+71.9% to €2.56 billion), while Türkiye (+70.2%), Norway (+40.9%), and Brazil (+18.6%) rounded out the top five. The concentration of EU exports in fewer, larger partners is reflected in the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports, which rose from 759 in 2015 to 994 in 2025, signalling moderately increased concentration (General Overview).

2.4 Import diversification improved while export markets consolidated

The import-side HHI fell from 750 to 588 (−21.6%), indicating that the EU successfully diversified its sources of supply — away from Russia and toward a broader set of suppliers. In contrast, export concentration increased (HHI rising +31.0%), meaning the EU became more reliant on a smaller number of large buyers, principally the United States and the United Kingdom. This asymmetry presents a structural vulnerability on the demand side, even as supply-side resilience improved (Market Structure).

3. From net importer to near self-sufficiency — with residual vulnerability

3.1 Net import reliance collapsed

Perhaps the single most consequential structural shift is the dramatic decline in the EU's net import reliance for CN 28. This indicator — defined as net imports as a share of apparent domestic consumption — fell from 52.3% in 2015 to just 1.5% in 2025, a drop of −97.2%. At its peak (around 2018–2019), the EU was importing over half of its inorganic-chemical needs from outside the bloc; by 2025, it was nearly self-sufficient (Autonomy & Vulnerability).

3.2 Trade intensity and export propensity also declined sharply

Complementary indicators reinforce this picture of increasing autonomy. Trade intensity (the ratio of trade to production) fell from 126.9% to 43.9% (−65.4%), while export propensity (exports as a share of production) dropped from 214.2% to 27.6% (−87.1%). Both figures suggest that EU domestic production of CN 28 products expanded substantially relative to the traded portion of the market. EU-reported production data confirm this: production value grew from €0.98 billion to €41.44 billion over the period, reflecting both volume expansion and the repricing of chemical output (Autonomy & Vulnerability, Market Structure).

3.3 Price shocks exposed lingering fragility in specific supply lines

Despite the aggregate improvement, the volatility analysis reveals that certain bilateral relationships remained highly unstable. Import prices from the United States exhibited a major price shock in 2021 (abnormality score 22.7, shift +54.6%), while Norway saw an even more pronounced spike in 2022 (abnormality 20.3, shift +86.3%). On the export side, shipments to Bosnia and Herzegovina displayed extreme price volatility (coefficient of variation 0.55, shock abnormality 55.0 in 2022), though at a marginal value share of 0.6%. The United Kingdom — the EU's second-largest export market — showed the highest import-side volatility among major partners (CV 0.53), driven by post-Brexit trade disruption and subsequent normalisation (Volatility & Shocks).

3.4 Segment-level data confirm a structural shift toward higher-value chemistry

The product-segment breakdown reveals that the EU's largest import categories by volume — carbonates (CN 2836, 3.10 million tonnes), ammonia (CN 2814, 2.57 million tonnes), and caustic soda (CN 2815, 1.51 million tonnes) — are predominantly bulk industrial chemicals. However, the fastest price appreciation occurred in precisely these energy-intensive segments during 2022, suggesting that the EU's import bill was heavily influenced by energy costs rather than demand growth. On the export side, sulphuric acid (CN 2807, 3.31 million tonnes) and aluminium oxide (CN 2818, 2.27 million tonnes) led by volume, while aluminium oxide and inorganic oxygen compounds (CN 2811) commanded the highest unit export values (€574/t and €946/t, respectively), reflecting the EU's competitive position in higher-specification chemical products (Product Segment Breakdown).

Conclusion

The EU's trade in inorganic chemicals over 2015–2025 tells a story of resilience forged through crisis. The period began with the bloc running a structural trade deficit and relying on external suppliers — notably Russia — for over half of its consumption. By 2025, net import reliance had fallen to near zero, export values had grown by two-thirds, and the trade balance had improved substantially. Yet this progress came at a cost: the 2022 energy crisis exposed the vulnerability of gas-dependent chemical production, triggering price shocks across multiple product lines and key bilateral relationships. Geopolitical shifts — particularly the halving of Russian imports and the doubling of Chinese ones — have redrawn the EU's supply map, while the concentration of exports in fewer markets (principally the US and UK) introduces a different kind of dependency. Going forward, the central challenge for the EU will be to sustain its newfound chemical autonomy while managing price volatility and diversifying both its supplier base and its customer portfolio.