Market evolution: Hydrochloric acid (CN 2806) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in customs code 2806, which covers hydrogen chloride ("hydrochloric acid") and chlorosulphuric acid. The heading bundles two sub-categories: 280610 (hydrochloric acid), which accounts for the vast majority of trade volume and value, and 280620 (chlorosulphuric acid), a smaller specialty segment. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU maintained a consistent trade surplus in CN 2806, acting as a net exporter. However, the decade was characterised by a pronounced price–volume divergence, dramatic geographic reconfiguration of trade corridors, and a structural shift linked to the 2022–2023 European energy crisis. The following sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

1. The Price–Volume Divergence: Soaring Unit Values Amid Declining Trade Volumes

The most striking feature of the decade is the persistent divergence between trade volumes and trade values. On both the export and import sides, quantities either stagnated or declined, while unit prices surged — in some cases dramatically. The following table summarises the aggregate evolution:

(Source: EU trade overview, CN 2806)

1.1 EU export values were sustained by rising unit prices rather than volume growth

EU exports of CN 2806 grew by 12.3% in value (from €31.0M to €34.9M) but declined by 12.1% in volume (from 166,171t to 146,022t) over the period. The peak export value was recorded in 2023 at €48.8M, yet that same year saw the lowest export volume of the decade at just 128,955t — a stark illustration of how rising unit prices, not physical shipments, drove revenue growth.

Focusing on the dominant sub-product, hydrochloric acid (280610), the price trajectory was non-linear. Unit export prices ranged between €155/t and €194/t from 2015 to 2021, then surged to €285/t in 2022 and a peak of €379/t in 2023, before moderating to €239/t in 2025:

(Source: Product segment comparison, CN 2806)

Export volumes peaked at 206,866t in 2017 before entering a multi-year decline, falling by 38% to a trough of 128,879t in 2023. The modest recovery to 145,882t by 2025 still left volumes well below the 2017 peak. The chlorosulphuric acid segment (280620) was negligible in export terms, ranging from just 74t to 556t per year.

1.2 EU imports experienced a dramatic volume spike followed by a long price surge

Import value rose by 64.9% (from €9.9M to €16.3M) while import quantity fell by 5.2% (from 69,521t to 65,878t), implying that unit import prices — not volumes — drove the increase. The aggregate import unit price rose from €142/t to €248/t (+74.0%).

The most striking feature of the import data is the 2017–2018 volume spike in hydrochloric acid (280610). Imports surged from 61,955t in 2015 to 158,507t in 2017 and 223,563t in 2018, while unit prices collapsed from €117/t to just €32/t — a 73% decline:

This pattern — volumes nearly quadrupling while total import value barely moved (€7.3M in 2015 vs. €7.1M in 2018) — is consistent with a period of aggressive competitive pricing or structural oversupply in global chlor-alkali markets. By 2019, volumes had reverted to 85,892t and prices recovered to €85/t, suggesting the episode was transient. The aggregate import price reached its minimum at €41.5/t in 2018 and its maximum at €283.7/t in 2022.

1.3 The 2022–2023 energy crisis marked a dramatic price inflection

The sharpest price movements occurred in 2022 and 2023. Export unit prices jumped from €178/t in 2021 to €285/t in 2022 (+60%) and further to €379/t in 2023 (+33%). Import prices followed a comparable trajectory, peaking at €284/t in 2022. This timing closely corresponds to the European energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Hydrochloric acid production is closely tied to the chlor-alkali process, which is energy-intensive and reliant on electricity and natural gas. The surge in European energy costs translated directly into higher production costs and, consequently, higher trade prices across both import and export flows.

By 2024–2025, prices moderated as energy markets stabilised, but they remained well above the 2015–2021 averages: the 2025 export price of €239/t and import price of €248/t were both roughly 40–50% above their respective pre-crisis norms.

2. Geographic Reconfiguration and Geopolitical Supply Shocks

Alongside the price–volume divergence, the EU's trade geography underwent significant changes. Import sources diversified, export corridors shifted toward new markets, and acute price shocks highlighted the sector's exposure to geopolitical risk.

2.1 Import sources diversified, reducing supplier concentration

The import-side Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) (by value) declined from 2,551 to 1,761 (−30.9%), indicating a significant reduction in supplier concentration and a move toward a more diversified import base.

Key shifts among top import partners include:

Switzerland and Norway remained the EU's two largest single suppliers, but their combined share declined as new sources entered. The most notable newcomer was the United States, whose exports to the EU grew by 240.2% (from €1.0M to €3.5M), making it the third-largest supplier by 2025. Türkiye emerged from virtually zero to €0.3M, having peaked at €2.1M during the period — a sign of growing Turkish chemical industry capacity. The United Kingdom more than doubled its share (+101.8%), from €1.0M to €2.1M, a restructuring that may be linked to post-Brexit trade realignment.

Among EU Member States receiving imports, Germany (€3.3M), Ireland (€3.4M), and Sweden (€3.0M) were the largest importers in 2025. Ireland showed the most dramatic growth (+185.6%), and Belgium's imports surged by +205.8%.

2.2 Export destinations shifted eastward and toward new markets

On the export side, the HHI rose modestly from 568 to 691 (+21.7%), but remained low, indicating a well-diversified export base. However, the composition of the top export partners changed markedly:

Switzerland became the EU's largest single export market, with value more than doubling from €2.6M to €5.7M (+116.8%). Ukraine saw the most dramatic growth: EU exports surged from €0.2M to €2.4M (+1,277.7%), reflecting both pre-war trade expansion and the dramatic reshoring of chemical supply chains following Russia's invasion. Serbia grew by 78.2% (from €1.4M to €2.6M), reflecting deepening EU–Western Balkans economic integration. By contrast, the EU's traditional Western neighbours — the United Kingdom (−43.2%) and Norway (−26.7%) — saw declining demand for EU-origin hydrochloric acid.

2.3 Detected supply-price shocks highlighted geopolitical and market risks

The volatility analysis identified three significant supply-price shocks:

The two export shocks in 2022 — Serbia (+146%) and Ukraine (+411%) — both coincided with the onset of the Russia–Ukraine war and the European energy crisis. For Ukraine, the extraordinary price spike likely reflected the disruption of domestic chemical production and a surge in demand for imported hydrochloric acid. For Serbia, the shock may reflect the repricing of energy-intensive goods traded across the Western Balkans.

The UK import shock of 2019 (+578% price shift, with a 21.9% share of total EU import value) is also notable. It may be linked to supply-chain restructuring ahead of Brexit, as UK-origin chemicals were repriced or rerouted through alternative channels.

In terms of trade volatility across all partners, the highest coefficients of variation on the import side were observed for China (CV = 2.01), India (CV = 1.70), and the United Kingdom (CV = 1.58), while the most stable import relationship was with Norway (CV = 0.09). On the export side, flows to Ukraine were the most volatile (CV = 1.18), while those to Serbia were the most stable (CV = 0.08).

3. EU Production Resilience and Strengthening Net-Exporter Status

Despite the turbulence in trade prices and volumes, the EU's underlying production base and structural trade position remained robust. Production values surged, specialisation was concentrated in a handful of Member States, and autonomy indicators confirmed a strengthening net-exporter role.

3.1 EU production volumes contracted modestly while output values surged

EU production of hydrogen chloride declined from 2.91 billion kg in 2015 to 2.69 billion kg in 2025 (−7.7%), reaching a low of 2.53 billion kg during the period. In contrast, production value rose by 74.6%, from €241.9M to €422.2M, peaking at €530.7M. The implied unit production value roughly doubled over the decade — a pattern consistent with the energy-driven repricing observed in trade data.

(Source: Production volumes, vulnerability indicators)

This combination — declining volumes but rising values — mirrors the trade dynamics described in Section 1 and points to a structural repricing of the EU's chemical production base.

3.2 Export specialisation is concentrated among five Member States

According to specialisation indicators for 2025, five EU Member States display a revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 1) in CN 2806 exports:

Germany dominates both EU production (31.6% of output) and export value (€16.2M in 2025, representing 46% of total extra-EU exports). However, Spain, Belgium, and Austria display higher specialisation ratios (RSCA), suggesting that hydrochloric acid exports play a relatively more important role in their respective chemical trade profiles.

At the other end of the spectrum, Luxembourg (RSCA = −0.991), Estonia (−0.940), and Latvia (−0.916) show near-zero specialisation, reflecting negligible production capacity.

3.3 Autonomy indicators confirm the EU's strengthening net-exporter position

The net import reliance for CN 2806 remained negative throughout the period, confirming the EU's status as a net exporter. The indicator moved from −2.2% in 2015 to −5.7% in 2025, meaning the EU's net-export surplus widened relative to its production base. The strongest net-exporter position was recorded in 2022 at −16.5%, when high export prices drove a surge in export value relative to production.

Two related indicators reinforce this picture:

• Trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) rose from 8.9% to 13.8% (+55.4%), indicating that the EU's hydrochloric acid sector became more trade-oriented.

• Export propensity (exports as a share of production) grew from 5.7% to 9.9% (+74.0%), reflecting a growing orientation of EU production toward extra-EU markets. This metric registered the highest salience score (114.1) among the vulnerability indicators, confirming that export openness is the defining feature of the EU's CN 2806 trade position.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in hydrochloric acid and chlorosulphuric acid (CN 2806) was shaped by three main dynamics:

1. A pronounced price–volume divergence: trade volumes declined on both the export (−12.1%) and import (−5.2%) sides, but unit values rose sharply — by 28% for exports and 74% for imports. The EU shipped less acid by mass but earned more per tonne, while import prices surged even more dramatically, particularly after the 2017–2018 episode of collapsing prices and surging volumes.

2. Geographic reconfiguration and supply shocks: the import side diversified significantly (HHI −31%), with the United States, Türkiye, and the UK gaining ground alongside traditional suppliers Switzerland and Norway. Export destinations shifted eastward, with explosive growth to Ukraine (+1,278%) and strong gains for Serbia (+78%) and Switzerland (+117%), while demand from the UK and Norway contracted. Acute price shocks in 2022 — linked to the Russia–Ukraine war — disrupted established trade flows, particularly for exports to Serbia and Ukraine.

3. Structural consolidation as a net exporter: despite a 7.7% decline in production volumes, the EU's net-exporter position strengthened. Production values rose by 75%, export propensity increased to 9.9%, and the trade balance remained positive throughout, with the strongest net-export position recorded in 2022. Germany anchors the sector, but Spain, Belgium, Austria, and Hungary display the highest export specialisation ratios.

Looking ahead, the sector's trajectory will be shaped by European energy cost developments, the evolution of chlor-alkali industry capacity, and geopolitical stability in key trade corridors — particularly Ukraine and the Western Balkans.