Market evolution: Sulphuric acid (CN 2807) — 2015–2025
Introduction
Sulphuric acid (HS/CN code 2807, encompassing sulphuric acid and oleum) is one of the world's most widely produced industrial chemicals, underpinning sectors from phosphate fertiliser manufacturing to metal refining and petroleum processing. This report examines the European Union's external trade performance for this product over the period 2015–2025, analysing volumes, values, prices, partner concentration, and structural vulnerabilities. The data covers trade flows between the EU and non-EU countries at annual frequency, with incomplete periods already excluded. Domestic EU production figures, reported in kilograms of sulphur dioxide (SO₂), provide additional context for the market's scale.
1. A decade of price-driven export growth despite stable volumes
1.1 Export value surged while volumes barely changed
The most striking feature of EU sulphuric acid trade over the decade is the divergence between export value and quantity. Export value rose from €116.9 million in 2015 to €324.4 million in 2025, a gain of +177.5%. Over the same span, export volume edged down by just −3.7%, moving from 3,435,746 tonnes to 3,309,355 tonnes. The entire increase in export revenue was therefore driven by higher unit prices.
1.2 Unit export prices nearly tripled
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export price (EUR/t) | 34.02 | 98.04 | +188.1% |
| Export value (EUR m) | 116.9 | 324.4 | +177.5% |
| Export volume (kt) | 3,436 | 3,309 | −3.7% |
Export prices ranged from a low of 21.71 EUR/t to a high of 113.71 EUR/t during the period. The steep price increase from 2021 onwards aligns with the broader surge in energy and raw-material costs that characterised European industrial markets in the wake of the post-COVID recovery and the 2022 energy crisis. Sulphuric acid production is energy-intensive and closely tied to sulphur recovery from oil refining and metal smelting, so disruptions in either chain translate directly into higher prices.
1.3 Imports grew even faster in relative terms
EU imports of sulphuric acid, though far smaller in absolute terms, expanded even more sharply. Import value rose from €13.8 million to €55.7 million (+303.8%), while import volume grew from 122,481 tonnes to 352,280 tonnes (+187.6%). The average import price climbed from 112.64 EUR/t to 158.15 EUR/t (+40.4%), peaking at 227.01 EUR/t at some point during the period. Notably, imports have consistently been priced well above exports — roughly 1.5× to 3× higher on a per-tonne basis — suggesting that the EU tends to import higher-grade or specialty sulphuric acid while exporting larger volumes of standard-grade product.
| Flow | Value 2015 (EUR m) | Value 2025 (EUR m) | Δ Value (%) | Vol. 2015 (kt) | Vol. 2025 (kt) | Δ Vol. (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | 116.9 | 324.4 | +177.5 | 3,436 | 3,309 | −3.7 |
| Imports | 13.8 | 55.7 | +303.8 | 122 | 352 | +187.6 |
2. Geographic concentration shifted and new partners emerged
2.1 Export destinations diversified toward mining economies
The EU's top export partners in 2025 reflect the acid's role in phosphate mining and metallurgy. Morocco — the world's largest phosphate exporter — was the leading destination at €54.5 million (up from €14.0 million, +288.8%). Türkiye, the United States, Brazil, Chile, and the United Kingdom also featured prominently among the top seven partners.
Several partners showed spectacular growth rates:
| Export partner | Value 2015 (EUR m) | Value 2025 (EUR m) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chile | 1.8 | 37.6 | +1,957.3 |
| United Kingdom | 6.6 | 48.6 | +633.4 |
| Morocco | 14.0 | 54.5 | +288.8 |
| Brazil | 12.2 | 36.1 | +196.1 |
| Türkiye | 14.7 | 37.4 | +154.8 |
| United States | 14.6 | 36.8 | +151.4 |
| Serbia | 2.8 | 1.7 | −39.3 |
Chile's explosive growth likely reflects expanded copper mining and smelting operations requiring acid for leaching. The United Kingdom's strong increase is consistent with post-Brexit trade reorientation, where flows that previously moved intra-EU now appear as extra-EU statistics.
2.2 Import sourcing became more diversified
The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 2,667 in 2015 to 1,811 in 2025 (−32.1%), indicating a meaningful decline in import concentration. By contrast, export HHI edged up slightly from 945 to 1,079 (+14.2%), remaining well below the 1,500 threshold typically associated with moderate concentration.
| Concentration (HHI, value) | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | 2,667 | 1,811 | −32.1% |
| Exports | 945 | 1,079 | +14.2% |
The key import partners in 2025 were the United Kingdom (€12.1 m), Serbia (€11.2 m), the United States (€11.5 m), Norway (€9.5 m), Switzerland (€4.4 m), and Belarus (€0.4 m). Russia, which had been a notable supplier earlier in the period (peaking at €3.4 million), collapsed to virtually zero by 2025 (−99.7%), a clear consequence of EU sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine.
2.3 EU Member States showed divergent specialisation patterns
Production specialisation data for 2025 reveals a clear divide within the EU. Bulgaria (RSCA 0.61, RCA 4.10), Sweden (RSCA 0.48, RCA 2.83), Spain (RSCA 0.31, RCA 1.90), and Belgium (RSCA 0.27, RCA 1.75) are the most specialised sulphuric acid exporters, while Ireland, Estonia, Slovakia, and Luxembourg show negligible specialisation (RSCA close to −1.0).
Among EU exporters, Bulgaria led with €68.7 million in exports in 2025 (up from €20.6 million, +232.8%), followed by Spain (€68.1 m, +155.3%), Germany (€54.1 m, +100.4%), Sweden (€44.5 m, +418.9%), and Belgium (€40.5 m, +297.9%). Poland emerged as a fast-growing exporter (€17.4 m, +673.8%). On the import side, Ireland (€18.3 m, +257.6%), France (€13.2 m, +951.1%), the Netherlands (€5.6 m, +3,035.5%), and Bulgaria (€8.7 m, +7,044.0%) showed the largest increases — the latter three suggesting growing domestic demand or re-export activity.
3. Price shocks, energy linkages, and structural resilience
3.1 Several notable price shocks were detected in export flows
The volatility analysis identified three major shock events in EU export flows:
| Event | Year | Abnormality score | Price shift (%) | Share of exports (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chile (exports) | 2020 | 63.8 | +591.7% | 5.7 |
| Brazil (exports) | 2018 | 28.4 | +144.4% | 13.5 |
| United Kingdom (exports) | 2022 | 16.9 | +86.0% | 16.4 |
The Chile shock in 2020 — a near-six-fold price spike — likely reflects pandemic-related supply disruptions combined with surging demand from Chile's copper-leaching sector. The 2018 Brazil shock coincides with periods of currency volatility and industrial disruption in Brazil's mining sector. The 2022 UK shock aligns with the broader European energy crisis. These events underline the sensitivity of sulphuric acid prices to industrial demand cycles and energy cost pass-through.
Import-side volatility was highest for Serbia (coefficient of variation 1.60), the Russian Federation (1.22), and India (3.30), reflecting the instability of these supply routes over the decade.
3.2 EU production expanded, reinforcing the bloc's net exporter status
EU domestic production of sulphuric acid rose from 8.26 billion kg SO₂ in 2015 to 10.83 billion kg SO₂ in 2025 (+31.1%), with production value increasing from €618 million to €814 million (+31.8%). The production peak reached 11.57 billion kg SO₂ during the period.
This expansion underpins the EU's persistent trade surplus in sulphuric acid. The net import reliance remained firmly negative throughout the period, fluctuating between −35.3% (most surplus) and −12.1% (least surplus), and closing 2025 at −30.3%. A negative value signals a net exporter position.
3.3 Trade intensity and export propensity remained relatively stable
The EU's trade intensity for CN 2807 — the ratio of trade (imports + exports) to domestic production — stood at 32.3% in 2025, up from 28.5% in 2015. Export propensity (exports as a share of production) was 28.6% in 2025 versus 27.1% in 2015. Both indicators were fairly stable, with trade intensity ranging between 16.4% and 33.7% during the decade.
Trade intensity | Export propensity
The overall balance of trade in value terms improved from €103.1 million to €268.7 million (+160.6%), confirming that the EU's position as a net exporter strengthened in value terms even as volumes were roughly flat.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's external trade in sulphuric acid was characterised by three principal dynamics: a dramatic price-driven increase in export revenues, a geographic reorientation of both exports and imports, and a resilient net exporter position underpinned by growing domestic production.
Export volumes were essentially flat, but unit prices nearly tripled — lifting export value to €324 million by 2025. This price inflation reflects the broader escalation of European energy costs and the tightening of global sulphur markets. On the import side, the collapse of Russian supply (−99.7% in value) was more than offset by increases from the United Kingdom, Serbia, Norway, and other partners, resulting in a more diversified import base (HHI down 32%).
Despite occasional price shocks — notably in trade with Chile, Brazil, and the United Kingdom — the EU's structural position remained robust. Domestic production grew by over 30%, the trade surplus widened to €269 million, and net import reliance stayed deeply negative at around −30%. The main risks going forward relate to energy-price volatility (which directly affects production costs) and the concentration of export demand in a handful of mining-intensive economies.