Market evolution: Phosphorus sulphides (CN 2813) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in customs code 2813, covering "Sulphides of non-metals; commercial phosphorus trisulphide," over the period 2015–2025. The code is a bundled heading comprising two subheadings: carbon disulphide (281310), which dominates trade by volume, and all other non-metal sulphides including commercial phosphorus trisulphide (281390), which is far smaller in tonnage but commands significantly higher unit values. Over the decade, the EU's trade profile for this product category underwent a dramatic transformation: import volumes collapsed by nearly two-thirds, unit prices more than doubled, and the EU shifted from a moderate net import reliance to approximate trade balance in value terms. The following sections unpack these dynamics across three main themes.

1. From Import Dependence to Near Self-Sufficiency

EU import volumes collapsed while export volumes proved more resilient

The most striking structural shift over 2015–2025 was the steep decline in EU import quantities. Total imports fell from 21,523 tonnes in 2015 to just 7,436 tonnes in 2025, a contraction of 65.4%. By contrast, export volumes declined more moderately from 6,165 to 5,280 tonnes (−14.4%). This divergence narrowed the EU's trade deficit from €4.6 million in 2015 to €2.7 million in 2025.

The collapse was concentrated in carbon disulphide (281310)

Virtually the entire volume decline originated in carbon disulphide imports. Imports of subheading 281310 fell from 21,504 tonnes in 2015 to a trough of 3,870 tonnes in 2024, before partially recovering to 7,357 tonnes in 2025. Meanwhile, imports of the higher-value subheading 281390 (other sulphides and phosphorus trisulphide) remained negligible in volume throughout (19–80 tonnes), though their value grew substantially from €1.1 million to €2.9 million due to soaring unit prices.

Net import reliance moved from positive to essentially zero

The net import reliance ratio captures the share of EU apparent consumption met by net imports. It dropped from 15.8% in 2015 to approximately zero (−0.2%) in 2025, indicating that the EU has effectively reached self-sufficiency in this product category in value terms. Trade intensity (the sum of imports and exports as a share of production plus imports minus exports) also halved from 24.4% to 11.8%, suggesting that the EU market for these chemicals has become considerably less exposed to external trade flows.

EU production volumes declined but values rose

Domestic production volumes fell by 11.5% (from 137,756 kg-equivalent to 121,853 kg-equivalent), yet production value increased by 28.4% (from €69.5 million to €89.3 million). This indicates that domestic producers were able to command significantly higher prices, consistent with the broader price inflation observed in trade data.

2. A Decade of Price Escalation and the 2022 Supply Shock

Unit prices more than doubled across both imports and exports

Over the period, the average unit price of EU imports rose by 174.5% (from €399/t to €1,096/t), while export prices increased by 59.7% (from €645/t to €1,029/t). Notably, import prices surpassed export prices by 2025, reversing the pattern seen at the start of the period. Within subheadings, carbon disulphide import prices roughly doubled (from €348/t to €711/t), while the much smaller-volume 281390 subheading saw extremely high unit values — €36,639/t in 2025.

The year 2022 marked a decisive price shock

A closer examination of shock events reveals that 2022 was an inflection point. Three major export-side price shocks were detected:

These were concentrated in 2022, a year that saw extraordinary energy and raw material cost inflation across European chemical industries, amplified by the disruption following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. For carbon disulphide exports, the unit price jumped from €629/t in 2021 to €1,038/t in 2022 — a 65% increase in a single year. While prices partially retreated in subsequent years, they never returned to pre-2022 levels.

Import-side volatility was high but driven by different factors

On the import side, the coefficient of variation was highest for China (2.76), the United States (2.36), and Japan (2.13), indicating that flows from these partners were highly erratic. Russia, despite being the largest supplier, showed more moderate volatility (CV of 0.51), consistent with its role as a relatively stable — though ultimately disrupted — source of supply.

3. Diversification of Import Sources and Reorientation of Export Destinations

Russia's dominance in imports eroded sharply

In 2015, the Russian Federation supplied €7.3 million of the EU's €8.6 million in extra-EU imports of CN 2813, representing an 84% share. By 2025, Russian imports had fallen to €4.2 million (−41.9%), and their share had dropped correspondingly. This decline was partly offset by the growth of alternative suppliers:

The United States and China saw the most dramatic percentage growth, albeit from very low bases. This diversification is also reflected in the import concentration HHI, which halved from 7,291 to 3,633 — a clear sign of reduced supplier concentration.

EU Member State import roles shifted significantly

Among EU importing Member States, Belgium (+443%) and Spain (+94%) saw large increases in import values, while Austria (−95%), Slovakia (−94%), and France (−80%) experienced steep declines. Belgium's import value surged from €437,302 to €2,376,477, making it the EU's largest single importing Member State by 2025 — suggesting a possible shift in logistical or processing hubs within the EU.

Export destinations were reoriented towards Israel and Serbia

On the export side, Israel emerged as the top destination, growing from €1.0 million to €2.5 million (+147%). Serbia also grew significantly (from €148,000 to €884,000, or +497%). Meanwhile, several traditional partners saw sharp declines: Japan (−81%), Indonesia (−85%), Colombia (−83%), and South Africa (−87%). Among EU exporting Member States, Germany remained the largest exporter but saw its value halve (from €3.4 million to €1.6 million), while Slovenia surged from €35,173 to €2.65 million — effectively becoming the EU's top exporter by 2025. France also emerged as a significant exporter (from €4,341 to €577,267), consistent with its strong revealed comparative advantage (RSCA of 0.76, the highest among Member States).

Export concentration rose even as imports diversified

While imports became less concentrated, export concentration moved in the opposite direction, with the HHI rising from 2,158 to 3,400. This reflects the increasing dominance of a smaller number of EU Member States — principally Slovenia, Belgium, and Germany — in serving a more focused set of export destinations.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in CN 2813 underwent a fundamental transformation. The most consequential change was the 65% collapse in import volumes, driven almost entirely by reduced carbon disulphide inflows, which brought net import reliance from 16% to effectively zero. Simultaneously, unit prices surged dramatically, with import prices rising 175% and a particularly acute price shock in 2022 linked to the European energy crisis. On the supply side, the EU progressively diversified away from its overwhelming dependence on Russia, which lost nearly half its market share, while the United States, Indonesia, and China emerged as alternative sources. On the export side, the landscape was reshaped by the rapid rise of Slovenia and France as major exporters and the reorientation of flows towards Israel and Serbia. Overall, the EU's chemical sector appears to have achieved greater autonomy in this product category, though at the cost of operating in a structurally higher-price environment.