Market evolution: Nitric acid and sulphonitric acids (CN 2808) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of nitric acid and sulphonitric acids (Combined Nomenclature code 2808) at the European Union level over the period 2015–2025. The product falls under Chapter 28 (Inorganic chemicals) and is closely related to the fertiliser and explosives value chains. EU production is dominated by Belgium, Germany and Portugal, with specialisation data confirming strong revealed comparative advantages for those three Member States. The EU has remained a consistent net exporter throughout the period, with net import reliance staying negative (from −4.2 % in 2015 to −6.9 % in 2025). Yet behind that headline stability, the period witnessed a pronounced shift from volumes to values, a reconfiguration of supply chains, and notable price shocks linked to the 2022 energy crisis.

1. The volume-value paradox: rising export prices mask falling physical flows

Export values grew while export volumes contracted

The most striking aggregate trend is the divergence between export value and export quantity. Over the full period, EU export value rose from €38.9 million to €48.2 million (+24.0 %), while export volume fell from 184,752 tonnes to 143,592 tonnes (−22.3 %). The unit export price therefore rose from €210/t to €336/t (+59.5 %), reaching a peak of €657/t at some point during the period. This price surge reflects the pass-through of higher natural-gas and energy costs into nitric acid pricing, a dynamic that was especially pronounced during the 2021–2022 European energy crisis.

EU production volumes were largely flat, but production values rose sharply

Production data from Prodcom tells a consistent story. EU output in nitrogen-content terms barely moved — from 790 million kg N to 800 million kg N (+1.3 %) — while production value climbed from €261 million to €420 million (+60.9 %). The near-identical growth rate of production values and export unit prices (both around +60 %) suggests that the price effect was economy-wide rather than confined to export markets.

Trade intensity and export propensity both rose by two-thirds

Despite the volume contraction, trade intensity increased from 8.4 % to 14.1 % and export propensity from 6.3 % to 10.6 %, both rising by roughly 67 %. This indicates that, in value terms, the EU chemical sector became more reliant on extra-EU trade for CN 2808 — a trend driven by the price uplift rather than any real expansion of physical cross-border flows.

2. Import supply chains consolidated around Norway while Russian and Swiss flows collapsed

Imports surged in volume but remained modest relative to exports

EU imports grew from 22,341 tonnes to 61,543 tonnes (+175.5 %) and from €6.1 million to €14.9 million (+141.9 %) over the period. Yet the trade balance remained in clear surplus throughout, widening slightly from €32.7 million to €33.3 million (+1.8 %). The minimum trade-balance value of €9.1 million, observed during the period, points to a temporary dip — most likely around 2021–2022, when energy-linked price spikes disproportionately affected the EU's export bills while import volumes also climbed.

Norway became the dominant import supplier, while Russia and Switzerland receded

The partner data reveals a dramatic reconfiguration of import origins:

Norway's share surged from a secondary position to absolute dominance, with import value rising from €1.5 million to €9.8 million and peaking at €20.4 million during the period. This is consistent with the importance of Norway's Yara-linked ammonia and nitrate production base, which benefits from lower energy costs than continental Europe. Meanwhile, import concentration (HHI by value) nearly doubled from 2,474 to 4,866, confirming the shift toward fewer, larger suppliers. Russian imports collapsed by 90 %, likely reflecting both geopolitical sanctions after 2022 and the general European strategy of diversifying away from Russian chemical feedstocks.

Danish and Belgian importers led the demand-side expansion

From the EU reporter perspective, Denmark's extra-EU imports surged from €1.5 million to €7.9 million (+427.7 %), while Belgium's rose from €33,101 to €261,784 — albeit from a very low base, and Belgium had a peak year of €9.7 million. Sweden and Finland also saw sharp increases, consistent with Nordic countries sourcing nitric acid from Norwegian producers. Conversely, Germany's imports fell by 40.8 %, suggesting that its large domestic production base (identified as having an RSCA of 0.31 and an RCA of 1.92) partially displaced the need for third-country supplies.

3. Energy-price shocks of 2022 drove pronounced export-price spikes and supply-chain volatility

A cluster of abnormal price shocks hit export destinations in 2022

The shock detection algorithm identified three major export-price shocks, all centred on 2022:

These shocks are consistent with the broader European energy crisis: natural gas — the primary feedstock for ammonia and hence nitric acid synthesis via the Haber-Bosch process — reached record prices in 2022, and EU producers passed costs through to export customers. The volatility analysis further shows that the most volatile export partner was Norway (coefficient of variation 1.27), while for imports, South Korea (CV 1.72) and Switzerland (CV 1.68) exhibited the greatest instability — both likely reflecting episodic or opportunistic trade rather than steady supply relationships.

The geography of exports evolved: Morocco and Switzerland grew, Poland collapsed

The partner export data highlights several significant shifts:

Morocco's strong growth likely reflects its phosphate-fertiliser industry, which consumes significant volumes of nitric acid. Switzerland's fourfold increase may be linked to re-export dynamics or pharmaceutical/agrochemical demand. The unspecified-destination category (covering military and commercial confidentiality) grew by 663 %, reaching €4.0 million, which may reflect defence-related procurement.

Among EU reporter countries, the most dramatic shift was Poland's export collapse from €3.3 million to just €17,614 (−99.5 %), while Portugal's exports quadrupled to €3.9 million (+260.9 %) and Germany's doubled to €10.8 million (+102.5 %). This is consistent with the broader consolidation of chemical production in Western Europe, where energy-advantaged or larger-scale producers absorbed market share.

Export concentration diversified while import concentration sharpened

The HHI indices moved in opposite directions for exports and imports:

The EU's export base became more diversified in both value and volume terms, reducing destination risk. In contrast, imports became sharply more concentrated — driven primarily by Norway's growing dominance — which raises a potential supply-security concern, especially given the volatility observed in some partner flows.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in nitric acid and sulphonitric acids was shaped by three interlocking dynamics: (1) a structural price uplift that turned flat-to-declining physical volumes into rising trade values; (2) a significant consolidation of import supply chains around Norway, at the expense of Russia and Switzerland, which increased import concentration risk; and (3) a cluster of 2022 price shocks linked to the European energy crisis, which passed through to export markets in Africa and Latin America. The EU maintained a positive trade balance throughout (net import reliance ranging from −2.7 % to −11.1 %), and its export base became modestly more diversified. However, the near-doubling of import-side concentration (HHI from 2,474 to 4,866) warrants attention from a supply-security standpoint. Looking ahead, the stability of EU production volumes despite higher energy costs suggests a resilient — if more costly — domestic base, but continued dependence on a narrow set of third-country suppliers introduces vulnerability should Norwegian output be disrupted.