Market evolution: Ores slag ash (CN 26) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 26 covers a broad family of raw and semi-processed mineral materials — iron, copper, aluminium, zinc, manganese, titanium and other metallic ores, as well as granulated slag, dross, and ash from metallurgical and incineration processes. For the European Union, this product group is strategically critical: the bloc's steel, aluminium, copper and battery supply chains all depend on secure access to these inputs, while its environmental policy increasingly shapes what happens to slag and ash residues.

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in CN 26 with non-EU countries underwent a structural transformation driven by three reinforcing dynamics: a near-doubling of unit prices on broadly stable volumes, a dramatic geopolitical reorientation of supply chains following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and a remarkable expansion of EU domestic production and outward processing capacity. This report examines each of these dynamics in turn.

1. The Price Supercycle: Doubling Unit Values on Declining Volumes

Import values rose 46 % while volumes fell 24 %

The most striking feature of the decade is the decoupling of trade values from physical volumes. EU imports of CN 26 were worth €18.26 billion in 2015 and €26.65 billion in 2025 (+46.0 %), yet the underlying tonnage actually declined from 136.1 million tonnes to 102.7 million tonnes (−24.5 %). The average import unit price accordingly rose from €133.8/t to €259.5/t (+94.0 %). Exports followed a similar pattern: export values nearly doubled from €2.61 billion to €5.13 billion (+97.1 %) on virtually unchanged volumes (15.78 Mt → 15.67 Mt), as unit export prices climbed from €165.1/t to €327.8/t (+98.6 %).

Copper concentrates drove the value surge; iron ore volumes shrank

The product mix shifted markedly over the period. Iron ore (CN 2601) remained the largest import by volume but lost its position as the top import by value: its tonnage fell from 104.8 Mt to 71.0 Mt (−32.2 %), while its value rose more modestly from €5.90 billion to €6.48 billion (+9.8 %) as the iron-ore unit price moved from €56.3/t to €90.5/t. By contrast, copper ores and concentrates (CN 2603) saw their import value leap from €5.62 billion to €9.58 billion (+70.5 %) on slightly declining volumes (4.1 Mt → 3.5 Mt), reflecting a unit-price surge from €1,380/t to €2,718/t (+97.0 %). By 2025, copper concentrates had overtaken iron ore as the single most valuable CN 26 import category.

Granulated slag imports exploded in volume

A striking outlier is granulated slag "slag sand" (CN 2618), whose import volume surged from 156,000 tonnes in 2015 to 5.96 million tonnes in 2025 — a nearly 38-fold increase. The value rose from €4.8 million to €226.3 million. This likely reflects growing demand for supplementary cementitious materials driven by EU construction activity and sustainability mandates promoting the use of industrial by-products in concrete.

2. Geopolitical Reorientation: The Collapse of Russian Supply and Diversification Efforts

Russia's share of EU ore imports fell by 99 %

Perhaps the single most consequential structural change was the near-total disappearance of Russia as an EU supplier of ores, slag and ash. In 2015, imports from the Russian Federation were worth €446 million; by 2025 they had collapsed to just €4.4 million (−99.0 %). The decline accelerated sharply from 2022 onwards, coinciding with the EU sanctions imposed following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The coefficient of variation for Russian imports stood at 0.74 — the highest among all import partners — underscoring the volatility of this disrupted relationship.

Canada, South Africa and Liberia absorbed the displaced volumes

The slack left by Russia was absorbed primarily by Canada, South Africa and Liberia. Canadian ore imports more than doubled from €1.72 billion to €4.02 billion (+133.8 %), making Canada the EU's second-largest supplier behind Brazil. South African imports similarly more than doubled from €1.05 billion to €2.49 billion (+135.8 %), while Liberian imports surged from €84 million to €528 million (+529.1 %), reflecting the growing role of West African iron-ore producers.

Ukrainian supply, despite the ongoing conflict from 2022, proved remarkably resilient, rising from €957 million to €1.40 billion (+46.0 %) — though its volatility remained elevated.

The import supply base became slightly more diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value declined from 950 to 857 (−9.8 %), while the volume-based HHI fell more sharply from 2,062 to 1,323 (−35.9 %). Both readings indicate a less concentrated — and therefore slightly less vulnerable — import base at the end of the period than at the beginning, even though the shift was achieved through crisis-driven necessity rather than deliberate diversification policy.

3. The EU's Surging Domestic Production and Rising Export Orientation

EU ore and slag production expanded at an extraordinary pace

The data reveal a dramatic expansion of EU domestic production of CN 26 products. Production quantity rose from 7.23 billion kg in 2015 to 46.34 billion kg in 2025 (+541.2 %), while production value surged from €513 million to €9,979 million (+1,845 %). This expansion was driven by several EU member states with strong mining and metallurgical traditions — Sweden, Finland, Bulgaria and Spain — and likely reflects both new mining capacity and, importantly, the processing of slag and secondary raw materials as part of the EU's circular-economy ambitions.

Export propensity quintupled, signalling a shift in the EU's market role

The most telling indicator of this structural change is the EU's export propensity, which measures exports as a share of domestic production. It rose from 11.9 % in 2015 to 47.2 % in 2025 (+295.3 %). In parallel, net import reliance fell from 76.8 % to 67.9 % (−11.6 %). Together, these figures point to the EU transitioning from a purely import-dependent consumer of raw ores toward a more balanced role that includes significant processing and re-export activity.

China became the EU's dominant ore export destination

The reorientation of EU exports was equally dramatic. China emerged as the single largest export destination, with EU-to-China ore exports rising from €907 million to €2.17 billion (+139.3 %). This surge was led by copper concentrates and other processed ores. The growing concentration of exports toward China is reflected in the export HHI, which rose from 1,694 to 2,168 (+28.0 %) — a development that creates a new dependency risk.

Within the EU, Sweden (€758 M → €1.30 bn, +71.2 %), Spain (€682 M → €1.67 bn, +144.1 %) and Bulgaria (€194 M → €647 M, +233.1 %) were the top EU exporters, each more than doubling their outward shipments. Bulgaria's specialisation index (RSCA = 0.85) was the highest in the EU, followed by Sweden (0.76) and Finland (0.66).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, EU trade in CN 26 (ores, slag and ash) was reshaped by three interlocking forces. First, a sustained commodity-price boom drove unit import and export prices up by roughly 95–99 %, nearly doubling the bloc's import bill despite a 24.5 % decline in physical volumes. Second, the geopolitical rupture caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine eliminated Russia as a source of supply — a €446 million trading relationship reduced to near zero — and triggered a rapid, if involuntary, diversification toward Canada, South Africa and West Africa. Third, a striking expansion of EU domestic production (output up 541 % by volume) and an export propensity that quintupled from 12 % to 47 % signalled the EU's emergence not merely as a consumer of raw minerals but as a significant processor and re-exporter, particularly of copper concentrates directed toward China.

These shifts carry important policy implications. The reduction in import concentration (HHI −9.8 %) and in net import reliance (−11.6 percentage points) suggests improved supply resilience. However, the simultaneous rise in export concentration (+28.0 %), with China absorbing an ever-larger share, introduces a new vulnerability. The EU's strategic autonomy in critical raw materials will depend on whether policymakers can sustain the diversification gains on the import side while avoiding over-reliance on a single export market.