Market evolution: Tin ore and concentrates (CN 2609) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's trade in tin ores and concentrates (customs code 2609) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis reveals a dramatic structural transformation of the EU's position in this market: from a dominant net exporter in 2015 to a net importer by 2025. This shift has been accompanied by fundamental changes in trade partners, price dynamics, and supply concentration. The period 2021–2022 stands out as a critical inflection point, marked by significant price shocks and supply chain reconfigurations that reshaped the competitive landscape.

1. From Net Exporter to Net Importer: The EU's Fundamental Trade Reversal

1.1 The collapse of EU export volumes

The EU's exports of tin ores and concentrates contracted sharply over the period. Export volumes fell from 540 tonnes in 2015 to just 154 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 71.5%. In value terms, exports decreased from €3.6 million to €2.8 million (-22.4%). This volume decline was partially offset by a dramatic increase in unit export prices, which rose from €6,717/t to €18,324/t (+172.8%), suggesting that remaining EU exports shifted toward higher-value or more processed materials.

1.2 The surge in EU imports

In stark contrast, EU imports expanded dramatically. Import values surged from €194,473 to €5,312,286 (+2,631.6%), while volumes rose from 114 tonnes to 381 tonnes (+234.1%). Import prices also escalated significantly, from €1,703/t to €13,926/t (+717.5%), reflecting both global commodity price inflation and a shift in sourcing patterns.

1.3 Reversal of the trade balance

The combined effect of these trends was a complete reversal of the EU's trade balance. In 2015, the EU enjoyed a trade surplus of €3.4 million in tin ores; by 2025, this had become a deficit of €2.5 million. Net import reliance shifted from -468% (indicating strong net exports) to +8.8% (indicating net imports), a swing of over 100 percentage points. This transformation marks the EU's transition from a re-export or processing hub to a dependent importer of tin ore.

2. Geopolitical and Supplier Restructuring: A New Trade Map

2.1 Peru's emergence as the dominant import source

The most striking change in EU import sourcing has been the meteoric rise of Peru. In 2015, Peru accounted for just €120 in EU tin ore imports; by 2025, this had risen to €5,308,384 — effectively the entirety of EU imports that year. This dominance is reflected in the import concentration index (HHI), which rose from 5,533 to 9,985, indicating a highly concentrated supply structure. Such concentration poses significant supply chain vulnerability.

2.2 The collapse of traditional suppliers

Several historically important suppliers saw their exports to the EU collapse:

• Russian Federation: From €341,041 (2015) to €31 (2025), a decline of -100% — likely linked to sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
• Thailand: From €41,077 to €1, a decline of -100%, following significant volatility in preceding years.
• United States: From €138,436 to €528 (-99.6%).
• Venezuela: From €7,025 to €59 (-99.2%).

The only traditional partner to maintain stable imports was Zambia (€104,575 → €108,687, +3.9%).

2.3 Diversification of export destinations

On the export side, the picture was more varied:

• Malaysia remained the EU's top export destination, maintaining approximately €2.8 million in both 2015 and 2025 (stable).
• Thailand grew from €473,870 to €1,650,001 (+248.2%).
• Brazil expanded from €241,631 to €1,157,205 (+378.9%).
• Singapore emerged as a new destination (€261,602 → €898,558).

Meanwhile, former major destinations such as China (€135,770 → €2,289, -98.3%), India (€307,174 → €819, -99.7%), and Japan (€197,253 → €122, -99.9%) virtually disappeared from EU export flows. Export concentration (HHI) declined from 6,283 to 5,144, reflecting a modest diversification among remaining destinations.

2.4 Shifts within EU member states

The internal EU geography of trade also transformed:

• Poland emerged as the dominant importer, growing from €112,234 to €5,308,384 (+4,630%), effectively handling all EU tin ore imports by 2025.
• Belgium, once a major importer (€162,766 in 2015, peaking at €2,783,024), collapsed to just €88.
• On the export side, Portugal grew from €521,963 to €1,650,001 (+216.1%), while Spain collapsed from €779 to €22. France also grew significantly (€307,274 → €1,157,205, +276.6%).

3. The 2021–2022 Price Shock and Its Aftermath

3.1 Identifying the key supply shocks

The data reveals three significant shock events concentrated in the 2021–2022 period:

The Thailand price shock in 2021 was the most dramatic, with import prices surging by over 2,000% and an abnormality score of 238.2 — suggesting an extreme departure from historical patterns. This coincided with broader global supply chain disruptions during the post-COVID recovery period and rising demand for tin in electronics and renewable energy applications.

3.2 Price volatility across partners

The volatility analysis reveals that several import partners exhibited high price volatility (coefficient of variation > 1.5):

• Venezuela (CV: 2.30) and United Kingdom (CV: 2.15) showed the highest import price volatility.
• United States (CV: 2.06) and Brazil (CV: 2.63, for imports) were also highly volatile.

On the export side, China (CV: 1.37), India (CV: 1.15), and Japan (CV: 1.15) showed the highest volatility, consistent with the eventual collapse of trade with these partners.

3.3 EU production response and structural adaptation

EU domestic production increased substantially over the period:

This fivefold increase in production volume — and tenfold increase in value — suggests a strategic effort to reduce import dependency. However, the EU's export propensity collapsed from 408.7% to 26.5% (-93.5%), and trade intensity fell from 172.4% to 46.0% (-73.3%). These indicators confirm that the EU's tin ore market has become significantly more insular, with domestic production increasingly absorbed by internal demand rather than re-exported.

The most specialised EU producers, based on revealed comparative advantage, are Portugal (RSCA: 0.94, RCA: 30.1) and Italy (RSCA: 0.72, RCA: 6.1), suggesting these countries have developed competitive advantages in tin ore processing.

Conclusion

The EU's tin ore market underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The Union shifted from being a significant net exporter (with a €3.4 million trade surplus) to a net importer (with a €2.5 million deficit), driven by a 71.5% decline in export volumes and a 2,631.6% surge in import values.

The supply landscape was completely reconfigured: Peru emerged as the near-exclusive import source, traditional suppliers like Russia and Thailand collapsed, and Poland consolidated its position as the EU's primary import gateway. On the export side, Malaysia remained the anchor destination, while trade with Asian markets (China, India, Japan) virtually ceased.

The 2021–2022 period represented a critical inflection point, marked by extreme price shocks — particularly the Thai import price surge of over 2,000% — that likely accelerated structural changes in sourcing and trade patterns. Despite a significant increase in EU domestic production (400% in volume), the bloc's trade intensity and export propensity declined sharply, indicating a more self-contained but import-dependent market.

These dynamics carry important implications for supply chain resilience: the extreme concentration of imports in Peru (reflected in an HHI approaching 10,000) creates significant vulnerability to geopolitical or supply disruptions in a single source country.