Market evolution: Cobalt ores and concentrates (CN 2605) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Cobalt ores and concentrates (Combined Nomenclature code 2605) represent a critical upstream input for the cobalt supply chain, feeding into refining, chemical processing, and ultimately the production of battery cathodes, superalloys, and other advanced materials. Over the 2015–2025 period, EU trade in this product has undergone dramatic transformation: trade volumes have contracted severely, unit prices have roughly doubled, the geographic structure of trade partners has shifted substantially, and domestic production has all but vanished. This report draws on EU Trade Dashboard data to document and interpret these dynamics.

1. A Structural Contraction of EU Cobalt Ore Trade

Import volumes fell by 85% over the decade

The EU's imports of cobalt ores and concentrates declined from 128 tonnes in 2015 to just 19.3 tonnes in 2025, representing an 84.9% drop. Import value fell from €1.86 million to €427,000 over the same period (–77.1%). The trajectory was not linear: volumes bottomed out at just 6.1 tonnes in an intermediate year, while import value peaked at €2.78 million before declining — evidence of significant year-to-year swings in both price and volume.

EU exports effectively ceased

EU exports collapsed even more dramatically. From 714 tonnes valued at €1.57 million in 2015, exports fell to essentially zero by 2025 — a 100% decline in both quantity and value. At their peak, exports reached 836 tonnes and €5.63 million, indicating that the EU was once a meaningful re-exporter or transit point for cobalt ores. The disappearance of exports suggests that cobalt-bearing material no longer transits through EU territory at meaningful scale.

The trade balance swung and then deepened into deficit

The EU's trade balance in cobalt ores moved from –€291,000 in 2015 to –€427,000 in 2025 (–47.1%). However, the balance ranged from a deficit of –€1.47 million to a surplus of +€5.16 million during the decade, reflecting periods when EU re-exports exceeded imports. By 2025, with exports at zero and imports still positive, the EU is structurally dependent on external supply, albeit at volumes that are small in absolute terms.

2. Cobalt Ore Prices Doubled as Volumes Shrank

Import unit values rose from €14,600/t to over €22,000/t

Despite — or rather because of — falling volumes, unit prices for EU imports increased by 52.2%, from €14,559 per tonne in 2015 to €22,157 per tonne in 2025. Import prices peaked at an extraordinary €58,108/t in one year, while the minimum was €6,902/t — a range that underscores the extreme volatility of this niche market.

Export prices followed a parallel upward trend

EU export unit values rose by 50.2%, from €2,203/t to €3,309/t. The much lower absolute level of export prices compared to imports reflects a fundamental difference in product composition: imports tend to be higher-grade concentrates destined for chemical processing, while exports historically comprised lower-grade or intermediary material. Export prices peaked at nearly €16,000/t, consistent with episodic shipments of higher-value material.

Price shocks were concentrated in 2017–2018

The Volatility & Shocks analysis reveals three major price shock events:

The 2017–2018 period coincides with the global cobalt price spike driven by surging electric vehicle battery demand expectations. The UK import shock in 2018 is particularly significant given the UK's dominant share of EU cobalt ore imports, while the Brazil export shock of 2017 marked a sudden reorientation of EU outbound flows.

3. Geographical Reorientation of Trade Partners

UK dominance in imports eroded sharply

The United Kingdom was the EU's primary cobalt ore import partner at the start of the period, supplying €1.18 million (63.5% of total imports) in 2015. By 2025, UK imports had fallen to €303,000 (–74.4%), though the UK still accounted for the largest share. Japan, once a major supplier at €603,000, collapsed to just €545 (–99.9%). In contrast, the United States grew from €19,000 to €116,000 (+507%), and Brazil increased modestly from €97,000 to €128,000 (+32.9%).

Export destinations shifted from Europe and Asia toward Brazil and China

The partner structure of EU exports was fundamentally reoriented:

The collapse of UK-directed exports mirrors the broader decline in EU export volumes. The explosive growth in Brazil-directed exports — even in absolute terms — is a notable anomaly, potentially reflecting re-export activity or transit trade. China's growing share (+572%) is consistent with the country's dominant role in global cobalt refining.

Belgium and Ireland lost their roles as EU trade hubs

Among EU Member States, Belgium's import role collapsed from €1.57 million to just €843 (–99.9%), and Ireland's exports fell from €1.02 million to €14,000 (–98.6%). France and Italy emerged as relatively more active importers, with France growing from €140,000 to €235,000 (+67.5%) and Italy from €23,000 to €61,000 (+164%). On the export side, Spain grew from €3,400 to €38,000 (+1,029%) and Germany from €11,000 to €65,000 (+485%), though these remain modest absolute figures.

Export concentration intensified dramatically

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value rose from 4,535 to 9,900 (+118.2%), indicating that EU exports became far more concentrated in fewer destination countries. Import-side concentration remained more stable, rising modestly from 5,103 to 5,814 (+13.9%). The export HHI approaching 10,000 signals near-total dependence on one or two destination markets — consistent with the dominance of Brazil in the latest data.

4. Domestic Production Collapse and Strategic Vulnerability

EU cobalt ore production fell to negligible levels

According to PRODCOM data, EU production of cobalt ores and concentrates collapsed from 870,000 kg (valued at €20 million) in 2015 to just 583 kg (valued at €3 million) in 2025 — a decline of 99.9% by volume and 85.0% by value. This effectively signals the end of meaningful cobalt ore extraction within the EU.

Italy emerged as the sole Member State with revealed comparative advantage

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows Italy as the only EU country with a positive Revealed Symmetrical Comparative Advantage (RSCA = 0.84) and a high RCA index (11.7), with 93.8% of its cobalt ore production concentrated in this product. All other major EU economies — Germany, France, Netherlands, Slovakia — exhibited negative RSCA values, indicating no meaningful specialisation in cobalt ore.

Net import reliance remained low but masked structural dependency

The net import reliance indicator stood at 5.8% in 2025, down from 6.8% in 2015. The figure dipped as low as –80.6% during the period, reflecting years when the EU was a net exporter. However, this metric is driven by the very small absolute volumes involved. With domestic production near zero and exports at zero, the EU's true strategic exposure to cobalt ore supply disruptions is better captured by the concentration metrics and partner volatility data. The trade intensity stood at 10.5% and export propensity at 2.7% in 2025, both showing modest declines from their 2015 levels.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in cobalt ores and concentrates underwent a profound structural transformation. Trade volumes collapsed on both the import and export sides, while unit prices roughly doubled — a pattern consistent with global cobalt market tightening driven by the energy transition and battery demand. The EU effectively ceased to be an exporter of cobalt ores, and domestic production fell to negligible levels, leaving the bloc entirely dependent on external supply for a material classified as critical by the European Commission.

The geographic structure of trade has been significantly reshaped: the UK's role as the dominant import supplier eroded, Japan disappeared, and the US grew in relative importance. On the export side, flows reoriented toward Brazil and China, with concentration intensifying sharply. Within the EU, traditional trade hubs such as Belgium and Ireland lost their prominence, while France, Italy, and Spain gained relative share.

These dynamics carry strategic implications. With near-zero domestic production, high export concentration (HHI approaching 10,000), and a history of severe price shocks in 2017–2018, the EU's cobalt ore supply chain presents vulnerabilities that are only partially captured by headline net import reliance figures. The data underscores the importance of supply diversification, strategic stockpiling, and investment in recycling and alternative chemistries as the EU pursues its critical raw materials ambitions.