Market evolution: Manganese ores and concentrates (CN 2602) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in manganese ores and concentrates (Customs code 2602) over the period 2015-2025. The analysis focuses on identifying the main dynamics in trade volumes, values, pricing, partner concentration, and the EU's strategic position. The data reveals a market undergoing significant transformation, characterized by declining physical trade volumes, substantial price inflation, a major realignment of supply sources, and a deliberate effort by the EU to bolster its domestic production capacity.

The Great Decoupling: Soaring Prices Amidst Plummeting Import Volumes

The most striking feature of the 2015-2025 period is the strong inverse relationship between the volume and value of manganese ore imports into the EU. While the physical quantity of imports fell dramatically, their value remained substantial due to a more than proportional increase in unit prices.

The structural decline in import volumes

EU imports of manganese ores followed a clear downward trajectory throughout the period. Total import quantity fell from 1,274,599 tonnes in 2015 to 673,944 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 47.1% (Overview). This trend reflects underlying shifts in European steelmaking and industrial demand, as well as increased efficiency in manganese use.

Price inflation outpaces the fall in import values

Despite the volume contraction, the value of EU imports did not decline proportionally. It decreased by a more modest 19.7% from €148.9 million to €119.6 million. This discrepancy is explained by a sharp rise in the unit import price, which increased by 51.9% from €116.8 per tonne in 2015 to €177.4 per tonne in 2025. This price surge is a global phenomenon, driven by supply constraints, rising production costs, and increasing demand for high-grade ores.

A collapse in EU exports

The EU's export performance in this commodity sector has diminished significantly. Export volumes plummeted by 86.6%, from 231,274 tonnes to 30,903 tonnes. While their value fell by 45.6%, the unit export price skyrocketed by 307.2%, indicating that the remaining exports are of much higher value than a decade prior, possibly reflecting niche or high-purity products.

Table: EU Trade in Manganese Ores (CN 2602) - Key Metrics

Shifting Alliances: Supplier Diversification and Rising Concentration

The EU's supplier landscape for manganese ores has undergone a major realignment. While attempting to diversify away from historically dominant partners, the overall market concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), has actually increased.

The rise of Gabon and the resilience of South Africa

Gabon and South Africa have consolidated their positions as the EU's two most critical suppliers. In 2025, together they accounted for the vast majority of import value. However, their trajectories diverged: imports from Gabon fell by 25.2% in value, while imports from South Africa grew by 16.5% (Partners).

The fall of Brazil and the volatility of other partners

Other major suppliers in 2015 saw significant declines. Imports from Brazil decreased by 66.3%, while those from Mexico fell by 99.4%. This contrasts with the stable or growing trade with partners like Ukraine and Ghana. This volatility highlights the EU's search for stable, high-quality supply chains amidst geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

Increased concentration despite diversification attempts

The concentration of import sources, measured by the HHI for value, rose from 3,172 in 2015 to 3,835 in 2025, an increase of 20.9% (Concentration). This indicates a higher degree of market power among fewer suppliers, posing a potential vulnerability for the EU.

Table: Top 3 EU Import Partners by Value (2025)

Strategic Vulnerability and Domestic Production Response

The data points to a strategic challenge for the EU: high import reliance for a critical raw material, met with a notable domestic production response and identifiable supply shocks.

A persistent, though improved, import dependency

The EU's net import reliance for manganese ore, while improving from 94.0% in 2015 to 73.9% in 2025, remains extremely high. This signifies that the EU's industrial base, particularly for steel and batteries, is overwhelmingly dependent on external sources.

A significant increase in domestic production capacity

In a direct response to this vulnerability, EU domestic production of manganese ore has increased substantially. Production quantity grew by 22.8%, while its value surged by 175.1% (Production). France is the most specialized producer within the EU, highlighting a concerted effort to develop domestic resources and reduce strategic dependencies.

Identifiable supply shocks underline market fragility

The market has experienced significant price shocks, notably from Gabon in 2022 (43.2% price shift) and from South Africa in 2017 (77.1% price shift). These events, coupled with high volatility in exports to partners like the Russian Federation (coefficient of variation: 2.50), demonstrate the inherent instability of global manganese trade and the EU's exposure to it.

Conclusion

The EU manganese ore market between 2015 and 2025 has been defined by a "less volume, more cost" paradigm. The region is consuming less raw ore but paying significantly higher prices for it, reflecting global market tightening and the premium on quality. Supplier dynamics have shifted, strengthening the role of African producers like Gabon and South Africa while increasing overall market concentration. In response to persistent and high import dependency, a clear policy-driven trend of boosting domestic production capacity has emerged. Moving forward, the EU's challenge will be to balance the economic efficiency of global sourcing with the strategic imperative of securing supply chains for this critical industrial input.