Market evolution: Zinc ores (CN 2608) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in zinc ores and concentrates (customs code 2608) over the period 2015–2025. The EU is a major consumer of zinc — used extensively in galvanisation, alloys, and batteries — yet its domestic mining output is modest relative to demand, making it structurally dependent on imports of raw zinc-bearing material. Over the decade, the market experienced pronounced price inflation, a notable geographic reconfiguration of supply sources, and a widening trade deficit. This report draws on trade data from the EU Trade Dashboard and is structured around three main findings: the price-driven divergence between values and volumes, the shifting geography of EU suppliers, and the structural vulnerability this creates for the bloc.

1. Price-Led Growth: Value Rises While Physical Flows Shrink

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the decoupling of trade values from traded volumes. In both imports and exports, monetary values rose substantially even as the tonnages involved declined.

Import values surged despite falling volumes

EU imports of zinc ores grew by 50.8% in value over the period — from €1.49 billion in 2015 to €2.24 billion in 2025 — yet the physical quantity imported fell by 11.9%, from 2.39 million tonnes to 2.11 million tonnes. The average unit import price rose by 71.2%, from €621 per tonne to €1,064 per tonne, confirming that price appreciation rather than volume expansion drove the increase in expenditure. This pattern is consistent with the broader commodity super-cycle dynamics and tightening global zinc concentrate supply.

Source: General Overview

Export values edged up but volumes collapsed

EU exports tell an even more dramatic story. While export value rose modestly by 8.2% (from €227 million to €246 million), the quantity exported plunged by 35.5%, from 437,000 tonnes to 282,000 tonnes. The average export price jumped by 67.7%, from €520 to €873 per tonne. This suggests that the EU's remaining export activity is increasingly concentrated in higher-grade or more favourably priced material, while the bulk export flows — particularly to Asian markets — have withered.

Source: General Overview

The trade deficit widened significantly

Because imports grew far more in value than exports, the EU's trade deficit in zinc ores expanded by 58.5%, from −€1.26 billion in 2015 to −€2.00 billion in 2025. The deficit peaked at −€2.02 billion at one point during the period, representing a structural strengthening of the EU's net-importer position.

Source: General Overview

2. Geographic Realignment: The Decline of Traditional Suppliers and the Rise of New Ones

Behind the aggregate figures, the period saw a profound reshuffling of the EU's import and export partners, reflecting shifts in global mining investment, resource depletion, and changing trade relationships.

Australia's collapse as an import source

Australia, which was the EU's largest single source of zinc ore imports in 2015 at €398 million, saw its shipments to the bloc decline by 79.7%, to just €81 million by 2025. This represents a dramatic withdrawal and is likely linked to the maturation and closure of several Australian zinc mines during the period, as well as growing competition for Australian concentrates from Asian smelters. Australia's volatility coefficient of 0.62 for import flows confirms the erratic nature of this decline.

Source: Top Partners

Mexico emerged as the EU's top supplier

The most dramatic shift was Mexico's ascent from a mid-tier supplier (€96 million in 2015) to the EU's single largest import source by value in 2025 (€510 million), an increase of 430.4%. Mexico's share of total import value reached 15% during the period, and it was also the subject of a significant price shock event in 2017, with an abnormality score of 290.8 and a 42.7% price shift. This surge likely reflects the commissioning of new mining capacity and Mexico's geographic advantage in supplying both Atlantic-oriented EU smelters.

Latin American and African suppliers gained ground

Peru more than doubled its exports to the EU (+107.7%), while Bolivia (+81.8%) and Burkina Faso (+354.0%) also expanded markedly. The growing role of Burkina Faso is notable: from under €9 million in 2015 to nearly €39 million, reflecting new mine development in West Africa. The volatility data, however, shows Burkina Faso has a high coefficient of variation (0.68), suggesting supply inconsistency.

EU export markets contracted sharply to Asia

On the export side, the EU's trade with Asian markets deteriorated dramatically. Exports to China fell by 84.7% (from €79 million to €12 million), while shipments to South Korea and Australia effectively ceased (−100%). In contrast, intra-European-adjacent trade held up: Norway remained the EU's top export destination, growing from €132 million to €212 million (+60.5%), and the United States grew from €1.9 million to €16.7 million (+791.3%). This suggests a strategic reorientation of EU zinc ore exports towards closer and more reliable partners.

Source: Top Partners

Shifting specialisation among EU Member States

Within the EU, the most specialised exporters of zinc ores in 2025 were Sweden (RSCA of 0.80, RCA of 9.09), Portugal (RSCA 0.75), and Finland (RSCA 0.73). These countries host significant zinc mining operations. On the import side, Spain and Belgium dominated, together accounting for a large share of total EU import value. Italy's import role collapsed by 99.5% over the period, from €81 million to under €400,000, suggesting the closure or repurposing of Italian smelting capacity. The Netherlands and France showed negative specialisation scores, indicating they function primarily as transit or processing hubs rather than primary consumers.

Source: Specialisation

3. Growing Structural Vulnerability: Concentration, Shocks, and Supply Risk

The combination of rising prices, falling volumes, and geographic shifts has left the EU in a more vulnerable position with respect to zinc ore supply than at the start of the period.

Net import reliance increased

The EU's net import reliance rose from 65.8% in 2015 to 70.8% in 2025, with a trough of 58.4% during the period. This means that for every tonne of zinc ore consumed in the EU, a growing share must be sourced from outside the bloc. Domestic production volumes declined by 13.7%, from 1.04 billion kg to 900 million kg, although the value of that production rose by 4.8% (from €801 million to €840 million), mirroring the global price trend.

Source: Vulnerability

Export propensity collapsed, signalling a structural shift

The most salient vulnerability metric is export propensity, which fell by 45.2% — from 46.5% to 25.5%. This metric, measuring the share of domestic production that is exported, indicates that the EU is increasingly retaining (or consuming) its own zinc ore rather than exporting surplus material abroad. Combined with the decline in domestic production, this signals that the EU's zinc ore ecosystem is contracting rather than expanding.

Import supply is moderately concentrated but diversified from historical patterns

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value stood at 1,475 in 2025, down slightly from 1,583 in 2015 (−6.8%). An HHI in this range indicates moderate concentration — the EU sources from multiple countries but with some dominant suppliers. The slight decline suggests a marginal diversification of supply. By contrast, the export HHI rose sharply from 4,617 to 7,501 (+62.5%), indicating that EU exports have become far more concentrated on a small number of destinations, predominantly Norway.

Price shocks in 2017 marked a turning point

The shock analysis identifies three major price shock events in 2017, all on the import side:

Source: Supply Shocks

These simultaneous price shocks across three major suppliers — representing over 36% of EU import value — point to a structural tightening of the global zinc concentrate market around 2017. This was likely the inflection point after which the EU's import bill began its sustained upward trajectory, even as volumes stagnated or declined.

Volatility varies widely by supplier

The coefficient of variation across import partners ranges from low (North Macedonia at 0.10, Türkiye at 0.19, Peru at 0.20) to very high (Chile at 0.83, Burkina Faso at 0.68, Australia at 0.62). For exports, volatility is generally higher, with many partners showing coefficients above 1.0 — reflecting the sporadic and small-scale nature of many EU zinc ore export flows. The combination of a moderately concentrated but volatile import base creates a risk environment in which supply disruptions in a single country could have disproportionate effects.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's zinc ore market has undergone a fundamental transformation driven by three interlinked dynamics. First, prices have risen far more steeply than volumes, meaning the EU now pays substantially more for less raw material — a classic symptom of tightening global supply. Second, the geographic map of suppliers has been redrawn: Australia's retreat and Mexico's ascent, alongside the growing roles of Peru, Bolivia, and West African producers, have reshaped the EU's supply dependencies. Third, these shifts have left the EU more reliant on external supply (net import reliance at 70.8%) and less able to export surplus production (export propensity halved to 25.5%). While the import HHI suggests the EU has maintained a moderately diversified supplier base, the 2017 price shocks and the high volatility of several emerging suppliers underscore the fragility of this arrangement. Looking ahead, the EU's zinc ore supply security will depend on its ability to sustain relationships with a broad set of suppliers, invest in recycling and substitution technologies, and monitor the structural decline of its domestic production base.