Market evolution: Animal or vegetable fertilisers (CN 3101) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in animal or vegetable fertilisers (Combined Nomenclature code 3101) over the period 2015–2025. CN 3101 covers fertilisers derived from animal or vegetable products, whether mixed together or chemically treated, excluding those in small retail packages. The EU has been a structural net exporter throughout the period, consistently running a trade surplus that ranged from €135 million to €233 million. Over the decade, the market underwent a pronounced transformation: unit values more than doubled while volumes shifted, EU domestic production surged, and trade patterns diversified. This report identifies three main dynamics — the structural price appreciation and its effect on trade values, the industrial expansion behind EU production, and the evolving geographic concentration of trade flows.

Rising prices reshaped the economics of EU fertiliser trade

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the sustained increase in unit prices, which fundamentally altered the relationship between trade volumes and trade values. While the EU exported fewer tonnes in 2025 than in 2015, the total value of those exports rose substantially, driven entirely by price appreciation.

Export values grew despite declining volumes

EU exports of CN 3101 followed divergent trajectories in value and quantity. Export value rose from €238 million in 2015 to €322 million in 2025, a gain of 35.2%. Over the same period, export volume fell from 678,566 tonnes to 568,449 tonnes, a decline of 16.2%. The resolution of this apparent paradox lies in the export unit price, which climbed from €351 per tonne to €567 per tonne — an increase of 61.4%. In other words, the EU shipped less product abroad but earned substantially more for it.

Import growth outpaced exports on a percentage basis

While the EU remained a net exporter throughout, its imports grew faster than exports. Import value rose by 161.9% (from €34.6 million to €90.7 million), and import volumes increased by 47.6%. Import prices also appreciated more steeply than export prices, rising from €405 to €718 per tonne (+77.4%). This faster import price growth suggests that the fertilisers sourced from abroad may have experienced tighter supply conditions or higher input cost pressures than the EU's own production. The trade balance nevertheless remained firmly in surplus, widening from €204 million to €231 million (+13.7%).

The price surge reflects broader commodity and agricultural cost pressures

The doubling of fertiliser unit prices between 2015 and 2025 cannot be attributed to a single cause. Several factors likely contributed:

• Rising energy costs, which affect both the production and chemical treatment of organic fertilisers.
• Increased demand for organic and bio-based fertilisers, driven by the EU's Farm to Fork Strategy and the broader sustainability agenda, which tightened supply.
• Global supply chain disruptions (notably during 2021–2023) that affected input costs across the agricultural sector.

The price trend was not smooth: prices fluctuated, with export unit prices peaking at €626 per tonne before settling at €567 in 2025, suggesting some normalisation after a period of acute cost pressure.

A booming production base underpins the EU's export capacity

Behind the trade figures lies a dramatic expansion of EU domestic production. Production volumes more than doubled over the period, and production values more than quadrupled, indicating that the EU's fertiliser manufacturing sector experienced a period of rapid growth and structural transformation.

Production volumes surged by over 170%

EU production of CN 3101 products, measured in kilograms, rose from 2.87 billion kg in 2015 to 7.81 billion kg in 2025 — an increase of 172.6%. Production peaked at 8.82 billion kg before declining slightly, indicating some market adjustment. The production value followed an even steeper trajectory, rising from €369 million to €1.54 billion (+317.5%). This disproportionate value growth confirms that the price appreciation observed in trade data was mirrored in domestic production.

Southern and Western European member states lead in specialisation

The EU's production base is geographically concentrated. Revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 shows that Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy are the most specialised producers of CN 3101 products within the EU:

These most specialised exporters account for a large share of intra-EU production and are well-positioned to serve third-country markets. Conversely, Bulgaria, Finland, Slovakia, Luxembourg, and Croatia display near-zero or negative RSCA values, indicating negligible specialisation in this product category.

Export concentration fell, signalling diversification

One of the most notable structural shifts over the period was the sharp decline in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports by value. The HHI fell from 1,092 to 608 — a 44.3% decrease. This indicates that the EU's export base became significantly more diversified over the decade, reducing dependence on any single destination. By contrast, import concentration increased modestly (+11.7%), meaning that the EU's sourcing of animal and vegetable fertilisers became slightly more concentrated among fewer suppliers.

Trade geography evolved with the rise of China and the resilience of Asian markets

The geographic composition of EU trade in CN 3101 shifted meaningfully between 2015 and 2025. China emerged as the single largest destination for EU exports by value, while imports became more diversified across Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, certain traditional partners experienced declining volumes, and volatility in bilateral flows remained elevated.

China became the dominant export destination

The most dramatic shift in export geography was the rise of China as a destination. EU exports to China surged from €7.7 million to €50.4 million — an increase of 552.2%. China's peak-year value reached €55.5 million, making it the largest single-country destination by 2025. This growth likely reflects China's increasing demand for organic fertilisers as part of its agricultural modernisation and environmental policies.

Viet Nam's share declined from its early-period dominance

Viet Nam was the largest EU export market in 2015, absorbing €66.6 million. By 2025, this had fallen to €40.1 million (−39.8%), and Viet Nam was overtaken by China. The volatility data shows a coefficient of variation of 0.30 for exports to Viet Nam, indicating moderate but persistent fluctuations. Malaysia also saw a decline (−41.7%), while the United Kingdom — the second-largest market — remained relatively stable at around €30 million.

The United Kingdom became the EU's top import source

On the import side, the United Kingdom emerged as the largest supplier, with imports rising from €5.9 million to €21.3 million (+258.8%). This growth occurred despite Brexit, which introduced new trade frictions from 2021 onward. India was the second-largest source, with imports rising from €6.0 million to €14.7 million (+145.1%). China's imports to the EU also grew significantly (+179.2%), though they remained volatile (coefficient of variation of 1.10). Brazil, by contrast, saw its exports to the EU decline sharply (−68.9%), possibly reflecting shifting agricultural trade dynamics or competitive pressures.

Price shocks were concentrated in smaller markets

The shock detection analysis identified several isolated price anomalies in export flows. The most pronounced was a 68.7% price shift in exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2022, with an abnormality score of 101.3 (though this market represented only 0.7% of export value). A similar but earlier shock occurred in exports to Taiwan in 2017 (82.1% price shift), and a particularly large 400.4% price shift was recorded for Thailand in 2018. These events affected small-volume markets and are likely attributable to one-off contract terms or data anomalies rather than systemic market disruptions. The broader pattern of moderate volatility across major partners suggests that the EU's trade in CN 3101, while price-sensitive, has been relatively resilient to structural supply shocks.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU trade in animal and vegetable fertilisers (CN 3101) was characterised by three reinforcing dynamics: a sustained increase in unit prices that lifted trade values well above their 2015 levels; a massive expansion of EU domestic production, which more than doubled in volume and more than quadrupled in value; and a meaningful diversification of export markets, anchored by the rise of China as the principal destination.

The EU maintained a consistent trade surplus throughout the period, and its net import reliance remained stable at around −17%, confirming its position as a structural net exporter. Trade intensity and export propensity both edged upward, indicating that the sector became slightly more integrated into global markets. Looking ahead, the key question is whether the price gains of recent years will prove sustainable, or whether supply-side expansion — both within the EU and from emerging competitors — will moderate the upward trend in unit values.