Market evolution: Compound fertilizers (CN 3105) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in compound fertilizers under Combined Nomenclature code 3105 over the period 2015–2025. CN 3105 covers mineral or chemical fertilizers containing two or three of the principal fertilizing elements—nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K)—as well as other compound fertilizers and specialty products in small packages. The code encompasses a wide range of products, from triple-nutrient NPK blends (310520) and major phosphate-based products like diammonium phosphate (310530) and monoammonium phosphate (310540), to various NP, NK, and PK formulations.
The decade under review was marked by profound structural changes in EU fertilizer markets. What began as a period of relative stability evolved into one of dramatic transformation, driven by a surge in domestic production capacity, geopolitical disruptions to traditional supply chains, and a remarkable shift in the EU's trade position from net importer to net exporter. The following sections analyze these dynamics in detail.
1. From net importer to net exporter: The EU's structural trade reversal
The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the EU's transformation from a net importer to a net exporter of compound fertilizers. This section traces the macroeconomic indicators that document this shift and explores the underlying production dynamics that enabled it.
1.1 The trade balance swung decisively into surplus
In 2015, the EU recorded a trade deficit of €312 million in compound fertilizers. By 2025, this had reversed into a surplus of €293 million—a total swing of 194%. The transition was not linear: the deficit peaked at €338 million in 2016, then gradually narrowed before tipping into surplus territory. By 2025, the EU's net import reliance had fallen to −1.0%, meaning the bloc was effectively self-sufficient and a marginal net exporter.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade balance (EUR) | −€312 million | +€293 million | +194% |
| Net import reliance (%) | 11.0% | −1.0% | −109% |
Trade balance and net import reliance
1.2 Domestic production nearly tripled in volume and quintupled in value
Behind the trade reversal lies a massive expansion of EU fertilizer production. Reported production quantities rose from 6.60 billion kg in 2015 to 18.79 billion kg in 2025—an increase of 184.8%. Production value grew even faster, from €1.32 billion to €6.68 billion (+406.6%), reflecting the sharp increase in fertilizer prices that accompanied the post-2021 commodity supercycle. This production surge allowed the EU to meet more of its domestic demand internally while simultaneously building export capacity.
| Production metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantity (billion kg) | 6.60 | 18.79 | +184.8% |
| Value (EUR billion) | 1.32 | 6.68 | +406.6% |
1.3 Export growth outpaced import growth by a wide margin
Over the full period, EU export values grew by 104.4% (from €1.35 billion to €2.77 billion), while import values grew by only 48.6% (from €1.66 billion to €2.47 billion). The divergence was even more pronounced in volume terms: export quantities rose 19.9% while import quantities increased just 8.9%. Price increases amplified the value growth on both sides, with export unit values rising 57.6% and import unit values rising 36.4%.
| Flow | Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | Value (EUR billion) | 1.35 | 2.77 | +104.4% |
| Exports | Quantity (million t) | 2.54 | 3.04 | +19.9% |
| Exports | Price (EUR/t) | 533 | 839 | +57.6% |
| Imports | Value (EUR billion) | 1.66 | 2.47 | +48.6% |
| Imports | Quantity (million t) | 4.26 | 4.64 | +8.9% |
| Imports | Price (EUR/t) | 390 | 533 | +36.4% |
2. Geopolitical shocks reshaped the EU's supplier landscape
The EU's import structure for compound fertilizers was dramatically reconfigured over the period, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Traditional suppliers were sanctioned or displaced, while new or previously secondary suppliers gained prominence.
2.1 Belarusian imports collapsed following EU sanctions
The most dramatic supplier shift involved Belarus. EU imports from Belarus fell from €158 million in 2015 to just €20 million in 2025—a decline of 87.2%. The collapse accelerated after 2021, coinciding with the EU's adoption of restrictive measures against the Belarusian regime. Belarus had been the EU's fourth-largest supplier of compound fertilizers by value at the start of the period; by 2025, it had fallen out of the top tier entirely. The coefficient of variation for Belarusian imports stood at 0.62, reflecting extreme volatility across the period.
2.2 Morocco and Tunisia filled the supply gap as North African suppliers surged
Morocco emerged as the EU's most dynamic import partner. Moroccan fertilizer exports to the EU grew from €317 million in 2015 to €841 million in 2025 (+165.3%), making it the second-largest supplier behind Russia. Tunisia followed a similar trajectory, growing from €62 million to €119 million (+92.2%). Both countries benefit from large phosphate reserves and established production infrastructure. Their gains reflect both the displacement of sanctioned suppliers and the EU's strategic diversification of critical input sources.
| Supplier | 2015 (EUR million) | 2025 (EUR million) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russian Federation | 630 | 682 | +8.2% |
| Morocco | 317 | 841 | +165.3% |
| Norway | 136 | 232 | +70.9% |
| Belarus | 158 | 20 | −87.2% |
| Serbia | 33 | 106 | +223.4% |
| Tunisia | 62 | 119 | +92.2% |
| United Kingdom | 59 | 93 | +58.7% |
2.3 Russian imports remained resilient despite sanctions discussions
Russia remained the EU's single largest supplier of compound fertilizers throughout the period, with imports growing from €630 million to €682 million (+8.2%). Russian volumes peaked at €967 million in 2022, the year of the Ukraine invasion, before moderating. The persistence of Russian fertilizer imports reflects the EU's decision to exempt agricultural inputs from its sanctions packages, given the strategic importance of food security. However, the modest overall growth masks significant year-to-year volatility, with a coefficient of variation of 0.24 for Russian imports.
2.4 EU exports diversified toward emerging agricultural markets
On the export side, the EU's destination profile shifted markedly toward large agricultural economies. Ukraine became the EU's largest export market, growing from €27 million to €429 million (+1,494%)—a surge that accelerated sharply after 2022, likely linked to the EU's agricultural support packages for Ukraine's war-affected farming sector. Brazil and the United States also emerged as major destinations, growing by 591% and 858% respectively. Meanwhile, traditional partner Türkiye saw a modest decline (−16.8%).
| Destination | 2015 (EUR million) | 2025 (EUR million) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 27 | 429 | +1,494% |
| China | 165 | 254 | +53.4% |
| Brazil | 23 | 159 | +591% |
| Türkiye | 119 | 99 | −16.8% |
| United Kingdom | 81 | 95 | +16.9% |
| United States | 23 | 222 | +858% |
| Malaysia | 51 | 52 | +0.9% |
2.5 The 2022 price spike triggered supply shocks across multiple partners
The year 2022 stands out as a period of extreme market disruption. Import prices for nearly all sub-categories doubled or more compared to 2021 levels—for instance, diammonium phosphate (310530) import prices jumped from €467/t to €941/t, and MAP (310540) prices soared from €502/t to €1,045/t. Export prices showed similar spikes. The shock detection analysis identified notable price anomalies for exports to Mexico (+60.9% shift in 2022) and Egypt (+49.2% shift in 2022), both with high abnormality scores.
3. EU member states exhibited divergent roles as importers, exporters, and specialized producers
The aggregate EU figures mask considerable heterogeneity among member states. Several countries emerged as major importers, while others developed significant export capacity or established strong production specializations in specific fertilizer types.
3.1 Spain and Poland led import growth among EU member states
Spain was the EU's largest importer of compound fertilizers from outside the bloc, with imports growing from €210 million to €363 million (+73.5%). Poland saw even faster growth, rising from €132 million to €351 million (+167%), reflecting the country's large and expanding agricultural sector. Romania recorded the most volatile trajectory: imports surged to €549 million in 2022 before retreating to €234 million in 2025, illustrating the boom-bust dynamics of the post-invasion fertilizer market. France, Italy, and Ireland maintained steady, large-scale import operations.
| EU Importer | 2015 (EUR million) | 2025 (EUR million) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 210 | 363 | +73.5% |
| Poland | 132 | 351 | +167.0% |
| Romania | 71 | 234 | +229.4% |
| Italy | 141 | 218 | +54.0% |
| France | 167 | 192 | +14.7% |
| Ireland | 113 | 170 | +50.8% |
| Lithuania | 155 | 103 | −33.6% |
3.2 Spain, Finland, and Lithuania emerged as major EU exporters
Spain was also the EU's leading exporter, with outbound shipments growing from €229 million to €590 million (+157.7%). Finland's export growth was the most dramatic in percentage terms, surging from €1.6 million to €262 million (+16,820%)—a trajectory that coincided with significant investment in Nordic fertilizer production capacity. Lithuania's exports grew from €81 million to €279 million (+246%), cementing the Baltic state's position as a key EU fertilizer exporter. Poland and Italy also recorded strong export growth, each more than doubling their shipments over the period.
| EU Exporter | 2015 (EUR million) | 2025 (EUR million) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 229 | 590 | +157.7% |
| Belgium | 385 | 369 | −4.3% |
| Netherlands | 169 | 225 | +33.7% |
| Lithuania | 81 | 279 | +246.0% |
| Italy | 105 | 224 | +113.2% |
| Poland | 92 | 250 | +172.9% |
| Finland | 1.6 | 262 | +16,820% |
3.3 Lithuania, Finland, and Greece displayed the strongest production specializations
Using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indicator for 2025, the most specialized EU producers of compound fertilizers were Lithuania (RSCA = 0.90), Finland (0.82), and Greece (0.71). Lithuania's fertilizer sector accounted for 11.5% of its total manufacturing production, far exceeding its 0.6% share in EU-wide fertilizer output—a strong signal of sectoral concentration. At the opposite end, Cyprus (RSCA = −0.99), Ireland (−0.99), and Sweden (−0.98) showed negative specialization, confirming their role as net importers with negligible domestic production.
3.4 NPK blends dominated import volumes while phosphate-based products led value growth
Breaking down imports by sub-product, NPK blends (310520) remained the largest category by volume throughout the period, ranging between 1.4 million and 3.0 million tonnes annually. However, the most significant volume growth occurred in nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizers excluding nitrates (310559), which grew from 107,000 tonnes to 437,000 tonnes (+308%). On the value side, diammonium phosphate (310530) imports remained consistently high at €420–€895 million, while MAP (310540) showed strong growth in the most recent years.
| Sub-product (imports) | 2015 volume (kt) | 2025 volume (kt) | 2015 value (€M) | 2025 value (€M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 310520 – NPK blends | 1,990 | 2,346 | 627 | 1,019 |
| 310530 – DAP | 1,322 | 1,204 | 588 | 761 |
| 310540 – MAP | 567 | 482 | 272 | 326 |
| 310559 – Other NP | 107 | 437 | 44 | 198 |
| 310551 – Nitrate-phosphates | 195 | 75 | 54 | 35 |
| 310590 – NK and other | 36 | 64 | 36 | 82 |
| 310560 – PK | 24 | 26 | 25 | 26 |
Conclusion
The EU compound fertilizer market (CN 3105) underwent a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most consequential development was the EU's shift from a net importer position (11.0% import reliance in 2015) to approximate trade balance and marginal net exporter status (−1.0% in 2025), underpinned by a near-tripling of domestic production volumes.
This transformation was catalyzed by two reinforcing forces: the massive expansion of EU production capacity—particularly in Spain, Finland, Poland, and Lithuania—and the geopolitical disruption of traditional import channels following sanctions on Belarus and the broader market upheaval triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The 2022 price shock, which saw unit values for phosphate-based fertilizers double or triple, served as a watershed moment that both incentivized domestic production investment and reshaped supplier relationships.
The supplier landscape was materially reconfigured. Belarusian imports collapsed by 87%, while Morocco surged to become the EU's second-largest supplier with a 165% increase. Russia maintained its position as the top supplier, reflecting the EU's strategic decision to exempt fertilizers from sanctions. On the export side, Ukraine emerged as the EU's largest destination—growing nearly fifteenfold—driven by wartime agricultural support needs.
Looking forward, the EU's strengthened production base and improved trade balance position suggest greater strategic autonomy in compound fertilizers. However, continued reliance on Russian and Moroccan phosphate supplies, combined with the inherent price volatility of global fertilizer markets (as evidenced by the 2022 shock), indicates that supply chain resilience will remain a policy concern. The growing export propensity (from 21.7% to 37.7% of production) also signals that EU producers are increasingly competitive in global markets, particularly in high-value specialty formulations.