Market evolution: Nitrogenous mineral fertilisers (CN 3102) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in nitrogenous mineral fertilisers (Combined Nomenclature code 3102) over the period from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a market marked by significant growth in trade values, pronounced price volatility driven by major external shocks, and a fundamental reorientation of trade flows in response to geopolitical events. These trends have impacted the EU's trade balance, supplier concentration, and overall vulnerability.

I. A Decade of Expanding Trade and a Widening Deficit

The EU's trade in CN 3102 fertilisers saw robust growth in monetary terms over the decade, though this was not consistently matched by increases in physical volume. This dynamic led to a substantial deterioration in the EU's trade balance for these products.

The trade deficit expanded dramatically

The EU has historically been a net importer of nitrogenous fertilisers, and this position strengthened considerably. The trade deficit widened from €514 million in 2015 to nearly €2 billion in 2025, a deterioration of 288%. Net import reliance shifted from -2.1% (indicating a slight net exporter position) to 9.5%, highlighting increased dependency on external suppliers.

Imports grew in value faster than in volume

Total import value surged by 110.9%, from €1.96 billion to €4.13 billion. In contrast, import volume increased by a more modest 49.7%, from 8.2 million tonnes to 12.3 million tonnes. This divergence underscores the role of price inflation as a key driver of the increased import bill. The average import price per tonne rose from €239 to €336.

Exports showed a similar pattern of value outpacing volume

EU export value grew by 47.8%, reaching €2.14 billion in 2025. However, export volume actually contracted slightly by 5.9%, falling to 6.5 million tonnes. This indicates that EU exporters were able to command higher prices but did not significantly expand their physical shipments.

II. Extreme Price Volatility and the 2022 Energy-Crisis Shock

The period was characterized by high price volatility, with an unprecedented spike in 2022 that acted as a watershed event for the market.

Prices for both imports and exports reached record highs in 2022

Driven by the energy crisis—fertiliser production is highly energy-intensive—average import prices skyrocketed to €649 per tonne in 2022, before correcting. Similarly, average export prices peaked at €569 per tonne. The price per kilogram of nitrogen (supplementary unit) mirrored this extreme volatility.

Specific trade flows experienced severe price shocks

The volatility analysis identifies notable price shocks. For instance, the price of EU imports from the United States showed an abnormal 15.4 sigma shift in 2020, with a price increase of 197.6%. EU exports to Mexico and Türkiye also experienced sharp, abnormal price increases in 2022.

Partner volatility varied significantly

The coefficient of variation for import values shows that suppliers like China (CV=1.15) and Belarus (CV=0.75) were highly volatile, while Norway (CV=0.07) was a notably stable supplier. On the export side, flows to Ukraine (CV=0.64) were more volatile than those to the United Kingdom (CV=0.11).

III. Geographic Reorientation of Trade Flows

The most profound shift in the EU's fertiliser trade occurred in the geographic composition of its supply chain, particularly for imports, driven largely by sanctions and trade disruptions following 2022.

Russian dominance in EU imports collapsed

Russia was the EU's largest import partner by value in 2015 (€556 million, 28% share). By 2025, its share had fallen to 21% (€885 million) despite an increase in value, indicating a loss of market position. Belarus, another significant supplier in 2015, saw its exports to the EU plummet by 94.5%.

Egypt and China surged as alternative suppliers

To compensate, the EU massively increased imports from other nations. Imports from Egypt grew by 695.5% to €1.4 billion, making it the largest single supplier in 2025 with a 34% value share. Imports from China also rose by 551% to €309 million.

EU export destinations shifted towards Ukraine and the US

The list of top export partners changed notably. The United Kingdom remained the largest market, but exports to Ukraine grew astronomically by 10,725% (from €1.9 million to €207 million), reflecting the EU's support and Ukraine's disrupted domestic production. Exports to the United States and Canada also showed strong growth.

Import concentration increased, while export concentration decreased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose by 40% from 1,326 to 1,862, indicating that the EU's import base became more concentrated, relying on fewer, larger suppliers (notably Egypt). Conversely, the HHI for export value fell by 23.5%, signifying a diversification of export destinations.

Conclusion

The EU's market for nitrogenous fertilisers over 2015-2025 evolved through three defining phases: steady growth, a violent price shock, and a forced geographic realignment. The decade concluded with the EU paying substantially more for its fertiliser imports while also deepening its net reliance on external suppliers. The most transformative change was the rapid shift away from Russia and Belarus towards suppliers like Egypt, a direct consequence of geopolitical conflict. Concurrently, EU exporters found new growth markets in Ukraine and North America. These dynamics suggest a future market where supply chain security and price volatility will remain central concerns for European agriculture and industry.