Market evolution: Ammonium nitrate (CN 310230) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in ammonium nitrate (CN 310230) from 2015 to 2025. The period was marked by significant volatility, particularly from 2021 onwards, driven by global energy crises and geopolitical shifts. The EU's position transformed from being a modest net importer to a robust net exporter, with trade volumes, partner dynamics, and prices undergoing profound changes. The analysis is based on available trade data.

1. The EU's Structural Shift from Net Importer to Net Exporter

Over the 2015–2025 period, the European Union fundamentally reversed its trade position in ammonium nitrate, moving from a dependency on external suppliers to becoming a significant net exporter. This shift is reflected in the diverging paths of export and import volumes.

1.1 Import Contraction and Export Stability

EU imports of ammonium nitrate in terms of mass quantity fell sharply from 1,034,213 tonnes in 2015 to 720,866 tonnes in 2025, a -30.3% decline. The low point was recorded in 2018 at 335,971 tonnes. In contrast, export volumes remained relatively stable, starting at 912,022 tonnes and ending at 948,485 tonnes, a modest +4.0% increase. This stability persisted despite a dip to 709,670 tonnes in 2018. Consequently, the EU's net trade balance in value swung from a surplus of €77.7 million in 2015 to €170.2 million in 2025, a +119% increase. The net import reliance metric confirms this, showing the EU consistently operated as a net exporter, with reliance intensifying from -13.0% to -22.3% (Trade Overview, Net Import Reliance).

1.2 Geopolitical Reorientation of Trade Flows

The partner landscape for both imports and exports underwent radical restructuring. On the import side, the United Kingdom and Russia, traditional suppliers, saw their roles diminish. UK imports collapsed by -90.3% in value, while Russian imports fell by -41.4%. They were replaced by emerging suppliers: Uzbekistan's import share grew by over 5,200% in value, and Türkiye's by 870.6%. For exports, the United Kingdom remained the largest single partner but its share declined by -47.2%. The most dramatic growth was for Ukraine, which saw EU export values surge by over 65,000%, becoming a major destination. India and Australia also emerged as significant new markets (Top Partners).

1.3 Internal Specialisation and Production Trends

The EU's trade balance shift was supported by a concentration of production capacity in a few specialised member states. In 2025, Bulgaria (RSCA: 0.961) and Lithuania (RSCA: 0.940) were by far the most specialised producers and exporters. However, EU production of nitrogen content (kg N) fell by -36.2% from 2,152 million kg N to 1,374 million kg N over the period, even as production value rose by +44.7%. This indicates a significant decline in physical output, likely driven by plant closures or reduced capacity utilization, particularly during the energy price spikes of 2022 (Production Volumes, Specialisation).

2. Extreme Price Volatility and Supply Shocks Linked to the Energy Crisis

The period from 2020 to 2025 was characterised by unprecedented price volatility for ammonium nitrate, directly mirroring the extreme swings in global natural gas prices, the primary cost driver for its production.

2.1 The 2022 Price Spike

The most significant market shock occurred in 2022. The average export price per tonne skyrocketed to €780 in 2022 (from €325 in 2021) and the supplementary price per kg of nitrogen hit €2.21. Import prices followed a similar, though slightly less dramatic, trajectory. This synchronized spike across all partners and flows is a clear indicator of a systemic cost-push shock. The shock was identified for several key partners, with the most severe price abnormality detected for exports to Colombia in 2019, but the 2022 event had a much broader market impact (Volatility, Supply Shocks).

2.2 Divergent Price Trajectories and the Aqueous Solution Segment

Post-shock, prices have corrected but remain well above pre-2021 levels. By 2025, export and import prices stood at €406/t and €298/t respectively. A notable divergence exists between the two product sub-segments. The aqueous solution (CN 31023010) consistently traded at a significant premium over solid ammonium nitrate (CN 31023090). In 2025, the aqueous solution export price was €555/t versus €402/t for the solid form. This premium widened dramatically during the 2022 crisis, reaching €787/t vs. €780/t, suggesting tighter supply or different demand dynamics for the liquid product (Product Breakdown).

2.3 Partner-Specific Volatility and Concentration

Volatility varied markedly by trade partner. For imports, flows with the United Kingdom (CV: 1.32), Uzbekistan (CV: 1.90), and the United States (CV: 1.79) were highly volatile. On the export side, the United Kingdom showed lower volatility (CV: 0.41), while Norway was exceptionally stable (CV: 0.17). Despite the crises, the concentration of EU imports (HHI value: ~2671) remained relatively stable, but export concentration fell sharply from 1831 to 756, indicating a successful diversification of export markets away from reliance on a few partners (Volatility, Concentration).

3. Growing Export Propensity and Deepening Integration in Global Markets

Beyond the trade balance, the EU's overall engagement with the global ammonium nitrate market intensified, as measured by trade intensity and export propensity metrics.

3.1 Rising Trade Intensity and Export Orientation

The EU's trade intensity for this product (total trade relative to production) increased from 23.7% in 2015 to 36.7% in 2025, a +54.5% rise. More strikingly, export propensity (exports as a share of production) grew from 18.5% to 29.5%, a +60.0% increase. This indicates that EU production became significantly more export-oriented over the decade. By 2025, export propensity was the most salient vulnerability metric, scoring 80.5 on the salience scale versus 67.8 for trade intensity (Trade Intensity, Export Propensity).

3.2 The Shifting Roles of EU Member States

The internal distribution of trade within the EU also changed. On the export front, Sweden emerged as the bloc's leading exporter to non-EU countries, with its exports growing by +108.7% in value to €141.3 million in 2025. Bulgaria saw explosive growth of +300.9%. Conversely, traditional exporters like France and Belgium virtually exited the market, with export values falling by over 99%. For imports, Lithuania and Romania became the largest importing member states, with values surging by +194.4% and +229.6% respectively, likely serving as entry points for product from new supplier countries like Uzbekistan (Reporters).

3.3 The Trade-Off Between Autonomy and Market Access

The EU's increased export propensity creates a dependency on global market demand and price conditions. While the strong net exporter position provides a buffer against import supply shocks, it exposes EU producers to competitive pressures and global price cycles. The simultaneous decline in physical production volumes and rise in export share suggests that remaining EU capacity is increasingly dedicated to serving international markets, potentially at the expense of domestic supply security. This structural change makes the EU's ammonium nitrate sector more integrated with—and vulnerable to—global market dynamics than it was a decade ago.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU ammonium nitrate market underwent a structural transformation. The bloc shifted decisively from a net importer to a net exporter, driven by a collapse in imports from traditional partners and a reorientation of export flows towards new destinations like Ukraine. This period was punctuated by the extreme price volatility of 2022, a clear shock linked to the energy crisis that exposed the cost sensitivity of nitrogen fertilizer production. Despite a decline in overall production volumes, the EU industry has become more specialised and export-oriented, with a few member states dominating production. This deepening integration into global trade has increased the sector's export propensity, making its fortunes more tied to external market conditions. The key challenge for the future lies in balancing the benefits of export market access with the need for resilient domestic production capacity, especially in an era of potential energy transition and geopolitical uncertainty.