Market evolution: Calcium ammonium nitrate (CN 310240) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade evolution of calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN), classified under customs code 310240, for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. CAN is a widely used nitrogen fertiliser mixture of ammonium nitrate with calcium carbonate or other inorganic non-fertilising substances, produced and traded in two main sub-segments distinguished by nitrogen content: CN 31024010 (≤ 28% nitrogen by weight) and CN 31024090 (> 28% nitrogen by weight). The product scope covers bulk fertiliser forms, excluding tablets and small retail packages.

The EU is a net exporter of CAN, consistently recording trade surpluses throughout the period. The decade was marked by three broadly distinguishable phases: a low-price baseline (2015–2019), the energy and geopolitical shock of 2021–2022, and a partial normalisation with structural realignment (2023–2025). Export value rose 41.8% from €360.8 million (2015) to €511.5 million (2025), while the trade surplus expanded 65.0% to €337.0 million, underscoring the EU's growing role as a fertiliser supplier to global markets. This report identifies and explains the three principal dynamics that shaped the CAN market over the decade.

I. A Decade of Growing Export Orientation and Net Surplus

The EU maintained a persistent and widening trade surplus throughout 2015–2025

The EU's trade balance in CAN moved from a surplus of €204.2 million in 2015 to €337.0 million in 2025, a 65.0% increase. At the same time, net import reliance deepened from −9.5% to −15.3%, confirming that the EU's position as a net exporter became more pronounced over the period. The most negative value recorded was −22.7%, reached in 2022 during the height of the fertiliser price spike, when EU exports surged while imports contracted.

EU production volumes declined, but production value rose significantly

Despite expanding exports, the EU's domestic production volume of nitrogen (in kg N) actually contracted by 22.5%, falling from 3.22 billion kg N (2015) to 2.49 billion kg N (2025). Production value, however, rose 57.5% from €1.57 billion to €2.48 billion, indicating a structural shift toward higher-value output. The divergence between volume and value reflects both higher input costs (particularly natural gas) and a shift in the product mix toward higher-margin segments. This pattern suggests that EU producers have responded to cost pressures by prioritising profitability over volume, while still sustaining a dominant export position.

The export propensity and trade intensity of CAN increased markedly

The export propensity — the share of production exported — rose from 11.1% in 2015 to 17.3% in 2025 (+55.9%). Similarly, trade intensity grew from 13.3% to 20.6% (+54.9%). Both metrics peaked in 2022 at 25.4% and 30.3% respectively, reflecting the extraordinary export volumes and values recorded that year. The sustained elevation of these indicators in 2024–2025, well above 2015 levels, confirms that the EU fertiliser industry has become structurally more export-oriented than at the start of the decade.

Trade flows in the two sub-segments diverged substantially

The standard sub-segment (CN 31024010, ≤ 28% nitrogen) remained the dominant product throughout the period, accounting for over 90% of both import and export volumes by mass. The high-nitrogen variant (CN 31024090, > 28% nitrogen) contributed meaningful trade flows only in the early part of the decade, with imports peaking at 70,147 tonnes in 2015 before declining to essentially zero by 2022–2025. On the export side, CN 31024090 volumes fluctuated between approximately 134,000 and 255,000 tonnes per year, with no clear trend. This near-disappearance of high-nitrogen imports may reflect both regulatory tightening on higher-concentration ammonium nitrate mixtures (due to safety concerns) and a shift in supply sourcing to domestic or intra-EU channels.

II. The 2021–2022 Energy and Geopolitical Shock Left a Lasting Mark

The fertiliser market experienced extreme price and trade-value spikes in 2021–2022

The period 2021–2022 stands out as a structural break in the CAN market. Export unit prices jumped from €153.7/t in 2020 to €265.7/t in 2021, then to a peak of €502.4/t in 2022 — more than tripling in two years. Import prices followed a similar trajectory, rising from €139.0/t (2020) to €589.1/t (2022), the highest level recorded in the entire period. This price explosion was driven primarily by the surge in European natural gas prices following the post-pandemic demand recovery and, critically, the escalation of geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia–Ukraine conflict beginning in early 2022.

Export values reached record highs while production volumes contracted

In 2022, EU export value hit a decade peak of €914.0 million, more than double the 2015 level, even as export quantities fell to 1,819,000 tonnes — their lowest level since 2016. This pattern confirms that the value spike was overwhelmingly price-driven rather than volume-driven. Meanwhile, production volume in kg N fell to 2.34 billion kg N in 2022, the lowest point in the decade, as high gas costs forced partial shutdowns of European ammonium nitrate and CAN production capacity. The EU thus simultaneously exported at record values while producing at near-record low volumes, a hallmark of a supply-constrained market with elevated global demand.

The supply shock reshaped import sourcing patterns

Among import partners, the most dramatic shock was detected in trade with Türkiye. Turkish imports surged from €5.5 million in 2015 to €145.3 million in 2022 (+2,579% from 2015 to peak), with a 257.9% price shift in 2022 classified as a major shock event (abnormality score 8.3). By 2025, Turkish imports stood at €66.2 million, still 1,104% above their 2015 baseline. This reflects Türkiye's emergence as a key alternative supplier as EU buyers sought to diversify away from traditional sources. Conversely, imports from the United Kingdom declined 76.0% (from €44.7 million to €10.7 million), and imports from Ukraine collapsed by 89.1% (from €23.6 million to €2.6 million), both reflecting the disruption to established trade flows.

Prices partially normalised after 2022 but remained elevated relative to pre-shock levels

By 2025, export unit prices had retreated to €275.5/t from the 2022 peak of €502.4/t, and import prices settled at €268.4/t from €589.1/t. However, both remained approximately 31% and 19% above their respective 2015 levels, indicating that the market had not returned to the pre-shock equilibrium. The persistent price elevation reflects structural increases in European energy costs, continued geopolitical risk premia, and tighter supply conditions in nitrogen fertiliser markets globally.

III. Shifting Geographic Patterns in EU Trade Partners and Member States

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest export market, but Latin America gained importance

The United Kingdom consistently absorbed the largest share of EU CAN exports, growing from €121.2 million in 2015 to €184.9 million in 2025 (+52.6%). However, the UK's relative share shifted as other destinations grew more rapidly. Argentina saw the most dramatic expansion (+263.0%, from €10.7 million to €38.8 million), while Mexico (+68.9%), Canada (+65.8%), and Norway (+119.3%) all showed robust growth. Brazil remained a major destination (€78.5 million in 2025) despite registering a price shock in 2021 (+82.3% shift, abnormality 11.8), and has broadly maintained its volumes. The geographic diversification of EU exports into the Americas and other markets is a notable structural trend.

Russia remained the top import partner, but Egypt emerged as a fast-growing source

Among import partners, the Russian Federation retained its position as the leading single-country supplier, with imports of €66.0 million in 2025 (−7.7% from €71.5 million in 2015). Notably, the relatively modest change masks significant intra-period volatility: Russian imports dipped to €26.2 million at their minimum before recovering. The resilience of Russian CAN imports — despite broader geopolitical sanctions and trade tensions — reflects the specific nature of fertiliser trade and exemptions that have applied to agricultural inputs.

The most dramatic newcomer was Egypt, which grew from a negligible €87,219 in 2015 to €28.8 million in 2025, effectively establishing itself as a material supplier in a short period. This aligns with Egypt's broader strategy to develop its nitrogen fertiliser production capacity. In contrast, several smaller suppliers experienced near-complete declines: Bosnia and Herzegovina (−91.3%), Serbia (−97.0%), and Ukraine (−89.1%), likely reflecting the impact of conflict, energy constraints, and competitive displacement.

Within the EU, the Netherlands consolidated its role as the dominant re-export hub

Among EU Member State exporters, the Netherlands was by far the largest, growing from €171.0 million to €255.4 million (+49.3%). This is consistent with the Netherlands' well-established role as a trade and logistics hub for bulk commodities. France (+489.5%, from €8.2 million to €48.5 million), Spain (+265.8%), and Hungary (+354.4%) showed the fastest growth among EU exporters, suggesting a broadening of the production and export base within the EU. Germany, the second-largest exporter, experienced a modest decline (−15.7%), while Belgium saw a steeper contraction (−36.4%).

On the import side, Ireland was the largest EU importer at €63.6 million in 2025 (+33.4%), reflecting its relatively limited domestic production capacity and heavy grassland fertiliser demand. Romania, Germany, Spain, and Italy all showed large percentage increases in imports, though from varying baselines.

Market concentration remained moderate and stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value stayed in the 2,795–3,287 range throughout the decade, indicating moderate concentration — neither highly fragmented nor dominated by a single supplier. The export HHI was lower (1,549–1,800), reflecting a more diversified set of destination markets. The relative stability of these indices suggests that while individual country shares shifted significantly (as detailed above), the overall structural concentration of the market did not undergo a fundamental transformation.

Conclusion

The EU market for calcium ammonium nitrate over 2015–2025 was shaped by three interlinked dynamics: a structural shift toward greater export orientation, the transformative impact of the 2021–2022 energy and geopolitical shock, and a significant reconfiguration of trade geography.

The EU consolidated its position as a net exporter, with the trade surplus expanding by 65% despite a 22.5% decline in production volume. This was achieved through a combination of higher prices, selective export growth, and import compression. The 2022 shock — driven by the natural gas crisis and the Russia–Ukraine conflict — produced the most extreme price and value readings of the decade, with import prices reaching €589/t and export values exceeding €914 million. While prices have since normalised, they remain structurally elevated relative to the pre-2020 baseline.

The geographic reconfiguration of trade was equally significant. On the import side, Türkiye emerged as a major supplier (+1,104%), Egypt established itself from scratch, while Ukraine and the Western Balkans largely exited the market. On the export side, Latin American destinations (Argentina, Mexico, Brazil) and Norway gained importance alongside the dominant UK market. Within the EU, the Netherlands consolidated its hub role, and newer exporters like France, Spain, and Hungary grew rapidly.

Looking forward, the key structural factors to monitor include European natural gas prices (the primary cost driver for CAN production), the evolution of Russian fertiliser trade under ongoing sanctions policy, and the continued expansion of alternative suppliers such as Türkiye and Egypt. The market has demonstrated resilience but remains exposed to energy-price volatility and geopolitical disruption.

Data source: EU Trade Dashboard — CN 310240