Market evolution: Preparations of meat and fish (CN 16) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of European Union (EU) trade in prepared and preserved meat, fish, and seafood products (Combined Nomenclature code 16) over the period from 2015 to 2025. The sector encompasses a diverse range of products from sausages and canned fish to prepared crustaceans and extracts. The analysis covers trade flows with non-EU countries, examining trends in value, volume, pricing, key partners, and market structure. Over the decade, the EU market demonstrated significant value growth, a marked shift in its trade balance, and evolving partnerships, underpinned by major price-driven dynamics and supply shocks.

The Price-Driven Expansion of Trade Value

The most striking trend over the decade is the strong growth in the total value of both exports and imports, despite relatively stable trade volumes. This indicates that rising unit prices were the primary engine of value expansion.

Export value growth outpaces volume, indicating premiumization

EU exports of CN 16 products grew significantly in value, rising from €3.80 billion in 2015 to €5.67 billion in 2025, a 49.3% increase. In contrast, export volume remained nearly flat, declining slightly by 2.0% from 990,223 tonnes to 970,754 tonnes. Consequently, the average export price surged by 52.3%, from €3,835 per tonne to €5,841 per tonne. This suggests a shift towards higher-value product segments or successful price recovery in international markets, as detailed in the general trade overview.

Import volumes rise, but value increases are amplified by price pressures

EU imports followed a similar value-volume divergence. Import value grew by 24.3% (from €4.61 billion to €5.73 billion), while import volume increased by 7.8% (from 1.10 million tonnes to 1.18 million tonnes). The import price also climbed, by 15.3%, from €4,203 to €4,846 per tonne. The period saw notable price shocks, particularly in 2022, where abnormal price increases were detected for key partners like the Philippines (29.9% shift), Ecuador (26.3% shift), and China (24.6% shift), which significantly impacted import costs. These dynamics are visible in the volatility analysis.

Price inflation transformed the sector's trade balance

The combined effect of faster value growth in exports and managed import costs dramatically improved the EU's trade balance in this sector. The deficit of €813 million in 2015 shrank to a near-balance deficit of just €61 million by 2025, representing a 92.5% improvement. This shift underscores the sector's enhanced competitiveness in value terms globally.

A Reconfiguration of EU Trade Partnerships

The geographic landscape of EU trade for CN 16 underwent significant restructuring, with the post-Brexit United Kingdom's role changing dramatically and new partnerships solidifying with countries in Asia and Latin America.

The UK's dominant yet declining share in imports

The United Kingdom remained the EU's single largest export destination, with exports growing 38.2% to €3.22 billion. However, its role as an import source to the EU diminished sharply. Imports from the UK fell by 43.4%, from €573 million to €325 million, likely reflecting the impact of the UK's exit from the EU Single Market and customs arrangements. This is a primary factor in the reconfigured import landscape.

The rise of Asian and Latin American suppliers

Partners in Asia and Latin America substantially increased their market share in EU imports. Ecuador saw the largest absolute growth, with imports soaring by 140.2% to €981 million, becoming the top source. China's exports to the EU grew by 160.0% to €530 million, while Viet Nam's increased by 50.6% to €363 million. Morocco and Thailand also maintained and grew their positions. In contrast, imports from Brazil fell by 47.2%.

Diversification of export markets beyond traditional partners

While the UK and Switzerland (€327 million, +52.0%) remained key, the EU rapidly expanded exports to other regions. Sales to the United States grew by 193.8% to €454 million. Notably, exports to Ukraine exploded by 523.0% to €98 million, and to Serbia by 123.6% to €91 million, indicating successful market development in neighboring regions. This diversification is reflected in a decreasing Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports, suggesting lower concentration risk.

Strengthening Self-Sufficiency and Internal EU Dynamics

Alongside external trade shifts, the EU internal market structure evolved, showing increased production capacity, reduced import reliance, and the growing dominance of a few key exporting Member States.

A dramatic reduction in net import reliance

The EU's net import reliance for CN 16 products fell from 21.8% in 2015 to just 2.4% in 2025, an 89.2% decrease. This indicates that domestic EU production, combined with robust exports, has become nearly sufficient to meet internal consumption demands for these products. The vulnerability metrics highlight this significant move towards self-sufficiency.

Poland and Spain emerge as the EU's export powerhouses

Among EU Member States, Poland and Spain solidified their positions as the leading exporters. Polish exports grew by 181.3% to €984 million, while Spanish exports grew by 85.5% to €625 million. Italy also showed impressive growth (+110.5%). These countries exhibit high revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) in CN 16, confirming their specialization. Germany, while a large exporter (€583 million), showed modest growth. The full specialization rankings are available in the market structure analysis.

Import hubs consolidate in Western Europe

The pattern of imports within the EU consolidated around a few large economies. Spain became the largest importer (€1.26 billion, +86.4%), followed by the Netherlands (€1.09 billion, +19.7%) and Italy (€767 million, +23.7%). France and Germany remained major but stable importers. This consolidation in core economies reflects their role as major consumption markets and logistical hubs for non-EU goods.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU trade in preparations of meat and fish (CN 16) was characterized by robust value growth driven by significant price inflation, particularly in export markets. The EU substantially improved its trade balance, moving from a deficit to near equilibrium. Geographically, the trade partnership landscape was reshaped by the UK's diminished role as an import source and the rapid rise of suppliers like Ecuador and China. Internally, the bloc achieved a much greater degree of self-sufficiency, with production capacity scaling to reduce import reliance to minimal levels. The market is now more specialized, with Poland and Spain as dominant EU exporters and a consolidated import hub structure in Western Europe. While 2022 saw acute price shocks from key suppliers, the overall trend points to a more value-driven, competitive, and self-reliant EU sector in these prepared food categories.