Market evolution: Prepared meat (CN 1602) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade performance of the European Union in prepared or preserved meat products (CN 1602) over the decade from 2015 to 2025. The EU has maintained a strong and growing net exporter position in this sector. Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU exports rose significantly, while the value of imports remained relatively stable, leading to a near doubling of the trade surplus. This evolution was primarily driven by substantial increases in export unit values, a restructuring of major trade partnerships, and a notable expansion in domestic production.

Strong export growth driven by price increases and diversifying destinations

The EU's export performance in the prepared meat sector outpaced that of imports, resulting in a strengthening trade balance. This growth was characterized more by rising prices than by increasing volumes, indicating a shift towards higher-value products or general inflationary trends.

The trade surplus nearly doubled despite stable export volumes

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's trade surplus in CN 1602 products expanded dramatically. The overall trade data shows the value of exports grew by 45.6%, from €1.82 billion to €2.65 billion. In contrast, import value saw a slight decline of 3.1%, from €1.14 billion to €1.11 billion. Consequently, the trade surplus more than doubled, increasing from €676 million in 2015 to €1.54 billion in 2025. This expansion was not volume-led; export quantities fell marginally by 1.5%, while import quantities saw a sharper contraction of 19.6%. The growth in export value was therefore almost entirely fueled by a 47.9% increase in export unit prices, which reached €5,314 per tonne by 2025.

The United Kingdom remained the dominant export market, while growth accelerated in Asia and Eastern Europe

The partner analysis reveals a reshuffling of the EU's top export destinations. The United Kingdom remained the overwhelmingly largest partner, with exports to the UK growing by 41.5% to €1.87 billion in 2025, accounting for over 70% of total export value. Beyond the UK, notable growth was recorded in exports to Japan (+116.1%), Switzerland (+70.6%), and Serbia (+113.1%). Ukraine also emerged as a high-growth market, with exports increasing by 383.6% to €26.5 million. This diversification points to successful market penetration in quality-conscious markets (Japan, Switzerland) and neighboring regions.

Table: Evolution of EU Prepared Meat (CN 1602) Exports to Key Partners (2015 vs. 2025)

Market restructuring with reduced import concentration and rising Asian suppliers

The import side of the market underwent a significant structural shift. The EU reduced its dependency on traditional, concentrated suppliers, particularly from South America, while sourcing increased volumes from Asian nations and some Eastern European countries.

Brazil's share plummeted as Thailand and China strengthened their positions

The partner data for imports shows a dramatic change in the supplier landscape. Imports from Brazil, the largest partner in 2015, fell by 46.6% to €230 million. Similarly, imports from the United Kingdom (post-Brexit) declined by 47.4%. Conversely, imports from Thailand grew by 53.0% to €370 million, making it the top import partner by 2025. The most striking increase came from China, with import values soaring by 250.6% to reach €248 million. Significant growth was also recorded for Serbia (+1,087.7%) and Ukraine (+694.2%). This diversification away from a few large suppliers towards a broader base, including major Asian producers, alters the EU's supply risk profile.

Import market concentration decreased, indicating a more diversified sourcing strategy

The concentration indices (HHI) support the narrative of a restructuring import market. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value decreased by 19.3%, from 2,915 in 2015 to 2,354 in 2025. This decline from a moderately concentrated market to one closer to an unconcentrated level confirms that import sources became more varied over the decade. The EU member states' data shows the Netherlands and Ireland were the main importing countries, with Ireland's imports growing by 55.4%.

Production expansion, specialisation, and vulnerability to supply shocks

Underpinning the EU's strong export performance was a major expansion in domestic production. This growth highlighted the specialisation of certain member states while also exposing the sector to price volatility from key trading partners.

EU production volumes and values expanded substantially, led by specialised member states

The production data indicates a significant scaling-up of the EU's prepared meat industry. Production quantity grew by 71.9%, from 4.36 million tonnes in 2015 to 7.50 million tonnes in 2025. Even more impressively, production value more than doubled, increasing by 122.1% from €18.3 billion to €40.7 billion. This substantial value increase relative to volume points to a shift towards higher-value-added products within the sector. Analysis of specialisation reveals Poland and Denmark as the most specialised EU producers in 2025, with high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores. Poland, in particular, saw its exports grow by 228.8% over the period, becoming a key export engine.

Table: Specialisation of EU Member States in Prepared Meat Production (2025)

High price volatility from some partners presents a supply risk

Despite improved diversification, the EU remains exposed to price volatility from several partners. Notably, imports from Chile (Coefficient of Variation: 2.05) and Switzerland (1.14) were highly unstable in value terms over the decade. The data also identifies specific supply shocks, such as a 103.3% price spike in exports to Angola in 2023 and a 31.3% price drop in exports to Japan in 2018. These events underscore the inherent volatility in commodity-linked food trade. The EU's vulnerability metrics remain low, with a negative net import reliance ratio in both 2015 and 2025, confirming its structural self-sufficiency and strong export orientation in this product category.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU solidified its position as a net exporter of prepared meat products. Growth was primarily value-driven, with export prices rising nearly 48%, compensating for stagnant volumes. The market structure underwent a notable transformation: export destinations diversified beyond the UK towards Asia, while import sourcing shifted away from Brazil and the UK towards Thailand, China, and Eastern Europe, reducing import concentration. This was supported by a massive 72% expansion in domestic production volume, fueled by the specialisation of member states like Poland and Denmark. While the sector demonstrates strong autonomy and export competitiveness, it faces ongoing challenges from price volatility in certain trade corridors. The overall trend is one of a mature, efficient, and internationally competitive EU industry that has successfully adapted its trade and production patterns over the decade.