Market evolution: Prepared chicken meat (CN 160232) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of prepared chicken meat (customs code 160232) for the European Union with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. The decade was characterized by a fundamental shift in the EU's trade position, from a net importer to a significant net exporter of this product category. This transformation was driven by a massive expansion in export volumes and values, while import growth was more modest and concentrated in specific sources. The analysis is based on the provided data, focusing on volume, value, price trends, geographic concentration, and market volatility.

The EU's transformation from a net importer to a net exporter

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the complete reversal of the EU's trade balance for prepared chicken meat. The bloc moved from a substantial trade deficit to a consistent and growing surplus, indicating a fundamental strengthening of its competitive position in global markets.

Export growth outpaced import expansion dramatically

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU exports of prepared chicken meat nearly doubled, increasing by 96.3% from approximately €571 million to over €1.12 billion. In volume terms, exports grew by 55.3%, rising from 154,313 tonnes to 239,627 tonnes. This expansion was not merely a volume play; average export prices also rose by 26.4% over the period, from €3,699 to €4,676 per tonne, indicating a shift towards higher-value products or general price inflation in the sector. For a detailed overview, see the General Overview.

In contrast, import growth was significantly slower. The value of EU imports increased by 14.8% (from €715 million to €821 million), while the volume actually decreased slightly by 3.5%, from 220,835 tonnes to 213,198 tonnes. Like exports, import prices saw a notable increase of 19.0%. The divergence in volume trends—export expansion versus import contraction—was the primary engine behind the trade balance shift.

The trade balance swung decisively into surplus

The consequence of these divergent trends was a dramatic improvement in the EU's trade balance. In 2015, the EU ran a trade deficit of €144 million in prepared chicken meat. By 2025, this had turned into a surplus of €300 million. The peak surplus reached over €412 million during this period. This 308% positive change underscores the sector's evolving role from a net consumer of imported chicken products to a net supplier to the world. This shift is detailed in the trade balance metrics.

Shifting partners and evolving market concentration

The geographic landscape of the EU's trade in prepared chicken meat underwent significant changes, characterized by the rise of new dominant partners and a general decrease in export market concentration.

Import sources: Thailand's dominance and the UK's decline

The list of top import partners reveals major reconfigurations. Thailand solidified its position as the leading supplier, increasing its export value to the EU by 64.5% to €360 million. More remarkably, China emerged as a major source, with imports surging by 364.1% to €175 million, making it the fourth-largest supplier by 2025. Conversely, trade with the United Kingdom contracted sharply after 2020; the UK fell from the third-largest supplier in 2015 (€239 million) to a much smaller source (€88 million in 2025), a decline of 63.2%. Brazil also saw its share diminish, with import values falling 27.2%. These shifts are visible in the top import partners data.

Export destinations: The UK's unrivaled importance and new markets

The United Kingdom became overwhelmingly the most critical export market for EU prepared chicken meat. Export values to the UK grew by 83.8% to €886 million by 2025, accounting for a dominant share of total EU exports. Beyond the UK, the EU diversified its export portfolio, with substantial growth to Ukraine (+455.4%), Canada (+1,283.5%), and Serbia (+729.4%). This indicates EU producers successfully tapped into growing or strategically important markets outside the bloc. The concentration of EU exports, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), decreased by 11.7% from 7,180 to 6,343, signifying a slight diversification, though the UK remained the overwhelmingly dominant partner. This data can be explored in the top export partners section.

Internal EU producers: Poland's ascent and export specialization

Within the EU, Poland emerged as the undisputed leader in prepared chicken meat exports. Polish exports exploded by 265.9% to reach €353 million in 2025, making it the largest exporting member state, overtaking traditional leaders like Germany and Ireland. Data on specialization confirms Poland's strong comparative advantage (RCA of 3.10) in this sector. The entry of Romania into the list of top importing member states (with a 1,463% increase) also highlights evolving intra-EU logistical and processing hubs.

Production growth, price shocks, and product composition

The period saw a massive expansion in EU domestic production, coupled with significant price volatility in key import streams, particularly from Asia. The product segment breakdown shows a clear dominance of cooked chicken preparations.

EU production capacity scaled dramatically

Underlying the export surge was a colossal increase in EU production of prepared chicken meat. Between the first and last available data points, production quantity grew by an astonishing 267.8%, from 935 million kilograms to over 3.44 billion kilograms. Production value increased even more sharply, by 374.3%, indicating both volume expansion and strong price increases. This scaling of production capacity provided the physical foundation for the EU's enhanced export performance. The production data is available in the Market Structure section.

Import volatility was centered on a Thai price shock

Trade volatility analysis identifies a significant price shock in imports from Thailand in 2022. This event was characterized by a 24.5% price shift and an abnormality score of 4.0, indicating a major deviation from typical pricing patterns. Thailand's import flows exhibited a relatively low coefficient of variation (0.19), suggesting this shock was a discrete event rather than a symptom of chronic instability. Other partners, such as Norway and Ukraine, showed higher inherent volatility in their trade flows, though from much smaller bases. These volatility metrics are detailed in the Volatility & Shocks analysis.

Cooked chicken dominates both import and export portfolios

The product segment breakdown reveals that prepared chicken meat containing at least 57% poultry meat that is cooked (subheading 16023219) is the cornerstone of trade for CN 160232. In 2025, this segment accounted for 90% of total import volume (192,758 out of 213,198 tonnes) and 46% of total export volume (109,991 out of 239,627 tonnes). Its dominance in value terms is similarly pronounced. In contrast, the segment for products with 25-57% poultry meat (16023230) has seen its share of imports decline sharply since 2017, while it has grown significantly as an export product. This indicates that the EU's export growth is being fueled by high-meat-content, cooked products. The detailed segment data can be compared via the Product Segment Breakdown.

Conclusion

The EU market for prepared chicken meat (CN 160232) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The bloc evolved from a net importer with a €144 million deficit to a formidable net exporter with a €300 million surplus. This was propelled by a near-doubling of export values, underpinned by a 267% surge in domestic production. The geographic landscape of trade shifted markedly: the UK became the EU's overwhelmingly dominant export destination, while Thailand consolidated its lead in supplying the EU market and China emerged as a major new import source. Within the EU, Poland established itself as the leading exporting nation. The market also experienced notable shocks, most significantly a sharp price spike in Thai imports in 2022. Throughout the period, trade was dominated by high-value, cooked chicken products. These dynamics collectively point to a mature and increasingly competitive EU prepared poultry sector with a strong outward focus.